Member Info for BaysilHope

Hi EC, simple for me basics - just look at ENQ, projected 42k output next year, CNE similar after reworks - Enq Mkt Cap $400m add back debt $1.2bn = $1.6bn but with $160m Interest costs. So CNE Ex cash should be worth $1.0-1.2bn EX cash. CNE could generate +$200m profit next year Ex Cash in hand . IMO add $800m for producing assets and $800m cash = $1.6bn or £2.43 excluding £200m buy back -lack of buy back is included in cash figure as it will take 6 months to execute. So all this about CNE SP collapse really needs to be researched - I use ENQ profitability as a benchmark for 2022, yes they have exposure to Brent/ Nat gas, we are a low costs fixed income producer with upside for new liquids, but without the $80m per 6mths Int cost. GLA last post. I'm over the moon. GLA Harder to short now - see megla for comments. HNY

Megla, I never mind constructive criticism, we all learn from it, but sheer ignorance, my boss taught me never to tolerate it, costs the company and costs jobs. You clearly have no basic understanding of CNE NAV being $2.1bn or +£3 and the SP £1.96. I 'm here for the long term, what I care about is the 75p divi - the best return in the FTSE 350. tell me why you are here. What gets you so interested to post, are you short, do you disagree with CNE's green policy. please be constructive and show a constructive argument and your perception of where the SP should be now and in 1 year, not just take cheap thoughts you are never capable of imagining . Thx BH. I think you last post sounds as if I need a quick Sp fix- opposite, as John Barry wrote on a Bond Song - I have all the time in the world- crap movie though. GLA

Megla, i'm wound by your clear lack of common sense, how could HBR raise equity after a CMD 20% drop in the SP and NO growth!! What don't you get, plus How would trapped EIG shareholders agree to an RI??? - you are talking tripe!! Thats why. You clearly don't understand HBR with a large shorting base - please before you comment on me - Do your homework!!! Its really timid.

Megla, first thing to point out. For all the HBR BOD publicity of a strong Balance sheet, from their H1 results - the truth is HBR Equity = Net Asset Value is $1.736bn, after taking into account a ($794m) -ve cash flow hedge reserve. Their gearing is over 150% coming down slowly. LISTEN - CNE NET ASSETS AFTER INDIA CASH WILL BE $2.1BN - which is larger than HBR BOOK VALUE FFS - what a bargain, the opportunity to double HBR's Net Assets, smash gearing that would take 5 years to undertake and can be done in 3 months and not pay a premium on acquisition - retain cash and issue HBR shares to CNE. The $1.4bn CASH will allow a leveraged gain of x 2.5 means HBR would have $4.2bn capability to expand through M&A and could cherry pick large parcels of producing assets available from off -loading majors - ALSO TAKING OUT A SERIOUS COMPETITOR (capable of buying for cash, unlike other indebted peers)- thereby breezing through to the FTSE 100. HBR CMD stated their portfolio guarantees 200k output for 4-5 years NO GROWTH!!!!! - SP collapsed 20%. They NEED to acquire big time, the market expects it. IMO they could NOT BUY ANY GREATER VALUE than CNE with $1.4bn cash and valued at a discount to cash. Apart from cash they would be adding LOW risk 50k production guaranteed, in a project region area with direct access to market, acquiring it before CNE can achieve accretive value to the entire investment portfolio. CNE at 50k output is the same size as ENQ but instead of $1.2bn DEBT - it has $1.4bn CASH IN HAND!!!!! If you take ENQ Mkt Cap $400m with $1.2bn debt say gross value $1.6bn, what is CNE worth with $1.4bn cash in hand and the same output profile. Bought more today - luz it. GLA

Potential Take Over value, NAV or book will be £3.10 post India but before any pay-out. for that the bidder gets £2.05 back in cash, no takeover premium and get to the FTSE 100 via a gift. However, on the 25th Jan our TU should give production guidance for 2022. CNE BOD have had 3 months to execute a production ramp up plan with their JV partners, so I'd expect circa 50k with an extra 15-20k of fluids for 2022 as a minimum, or an extra $0.55bn revenue with low cost. Book could be £3.50 with little premium built in. This is a sitting duck and still trading below potential cash value - £2.05. If I were HBR I'd win with a £4/ share offer which is £2bn equivalent for shares, or 500m HBR shares , which could not be defended by CNE BOD. Very little downside, no massive decom liabilities, relatively small non complicated operation, very easy to absorb operationally and financially very accretive to indebted oil peers. GLA Initial low ball offer £3.50 GLA

I apologise unreservedly for the silliness of this post, you know my views on TO, thought this was fitting, Quote “No one would have believed in the last weeks of 2021 that CNE was being watched keenly and closely by intelligences far greater than mortal PI’s and yet as mortal as their own; that as investors busied themselves about their various concerns they were scrutinised and studied, perhaps almost as narrowly as a PE with a microscope might scrutinise the transient creatures that swarm and multiply in a drop of water. “Yet across the great gulf of oil, intellects vast and cool and unsympathetic, regarded CNE’s $1.4bn CASH with envious eyes, and slowly and surely drew their plans against us.” Sorry I'll get my coat - last post for today. GLA

Not long now to the Trading Update 25th Jan - at which time the BOD will have a clear line of sight of dates. Should be a great opportunity to show case CNE, can't wait - with drilling news and strategic updates. great start to 2022. GLA

News will filter through that the finishing line is close, (Working with the Indian Govt key IMO) - those moaning need to review their positions soon. GLA - I had a feeling yesterday on an RNS - great start to 2022. GLA HNY

Triple B, don't give in now, that's what the MM's and short players want. On so many occasions a race is lost in the 10 yards - this is the time to go for the line and invest - I've added today even though the US will correct downwards tmz - obvious start to the New Year allowing elevated positions to be shorted - not for long though. I mention Sky bet - and they could not give me the odds for the GOI to refund +$1bn within 2 months - its not your everyday event. The Mm's are taking the cautious (probably correct view maths wise) sitting on the fence - this is new territory for them IMO - very few recent precedents - so keep schtum - that's an opportunity. As I said before FT wide ranging forecasts low 129p, high £3 -this could prove to be a serious way to make money. In the past (allowing for my many mistakes) I've made the best returns positioning against a particular market price - for an outcome. IMO I think CNE will get the refund, due to the massive cross party political capital invested by India in correcting past mistakes and bolstering its global investment status. It's less about CNE and more about the GOI gains, CNE's high profile II's greatly help in the equation. As soon as a confirmation RNS is received - shorts will have to reduce and there should be a SP spike as they close. HNY FTSE 100 should fall tmz and probably all week, great oppo IMO DYOR. Each week now - the NOISE should start abating - as the serious investors plan for the utilisation of the 75p dividend. I can think of far easier targets to short - in the midst of the Fed QT and rate rises.

There has been constant press\media coverage of the attempts by India to regain respect within International markets as a haven for investment, opposed to the previous govt's stance. To be fair IMO - GOI has not dragged its feet in providing clear rules by which companies can get refunds or contingent liabilities for tax removed. This change in Tax legislation is a quest approved by BOTH sides of the Indian Parliament. IMO any successful conclusion i.e The CNE refund will be celebrated by GOI in public worldwide. DYOR
Secondly, this coincides with the sale of Air India to the largest conglomerate in India Quote' The Government of India on October 8 announced the winning bidder for the national carrier Air India. The government's DIPAM Secretary and the Secretary of Civil aviation addressed a press conference , where they announced that the Tatas won the Air India bid.
Air India will go back to the Tatas after a gap of 68 years as the Government of India approved. Founded by Tata Sons in 1932, Air India was nationalised by late prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru’s government in 1953. 3 attempts, 20 years: Why government was able to sell Air India this time. The successful conclusion of this will be celebrated, can't hand over to Tata a
problem full of litigation. If I were advising GOI press dept, I'd invest massively in global media coverage publicising the resolution of these problems worldwide.
In every main press release, each article reaffirms the previous GOI were wrong and the current Officers want to rectify the situation inherited by dreadful legislation. GOI have admitted globally - previous governance had made a dreadful mistake - admitting guilt. Why then delay? After all that hard political investment in time effort and democracy to change the law. I believe massive media courage singing the praises of the Modi govt and he's not a shy boy!. Saving of $700m in the CNE case - It's job done. GLA I'm preparing for the party celebrations in New Delhi, booked the flight late January. HNY I'm taking my cut in Rupees.

GOI should have no excuses by 23td Jan - I think there will be an RNS on Form 3 - latest mid next week. GLA

Thanks for your prompt reply DH, greatly appreciated - good luck BH.

dharmendra, back a while you posted a very good summary of the overall timeline refund mechanism from GOI, heading after the 15th Jan 22. Following on from today's press releases, Form III has now emerged to the forefront with a form 4 to be issued from the tax dept in due course. Do you any further line of sight on the practicalities of this process? I would imagine that CNE should produce an RNS when Form 3 is submitted, within a week I guess\hope. Would appreciate your insight, you have greater research than I possess and thx for your contributions. Cheers B

Brilliant article great research - thanks for your efforts - very much appreciated.

Old Article 10th Nov - Tata TO of Air India 23rd Jan 22 - As the government and Tata Group negotiate the final terms of the Air India sale, we now know when the carrier will be handed over. According to the share purchase agreement, Air India will pass over to Tata before January 23, 2022, setting a firm date on the transaction. Air India are losing £2m/day and want this deal done and not F Off Tata. Delaying CNE case won't help this situation IMO DYOR. UK has 6 times more Covid cases than India - ATM. This will be wrapped up this month- IMO DYOR GLA.

Slarti B great factual posts discussing very relevant business relative facts, great to read. I'd add Mpesa Fintech value around €5-6bn, so a possible -ve value of the rest - this is a gift for an over funded US PE firm to break up, with so much free cash, still being pumped by the FED. They could refinance VODA with nearly zero interest funds and wait a full economic recovery. Other point - see copy re MCB's 2021 Stat Accounts
6. Called up share capital
On 5 March 2019 the Company announced the placing of subordinated mandatory convertible bonds totalling £1.72 billion with a 2 year maturity date in 2021 and £1.72 billion with a 3 year maturity date due in 2022. During the year, 1,426,788,937 treasury shares were issued in settlement of tranche 1 of the maturing subordinated mandatory convertible bond. The remaining bonds are convertible into a total of 1,426,793,872 ordinary shares with a conversion price of £1.2055 per share.

As of today VODA has 1.645bn shares in treasury, so the last Tranche Conversion of the MCB's Mar 2022 is more than covered, last years already sorted in 2021 FYR, no dilution and profit on the conversion given the £1.2055 Conv rate for 2022. TU Q3 2nd Feb hope the share buy back SP collar is lifted. GLA & HNY.

Acquire CNE (post Indian tax receipt) for equity issue - less than 40% dilution get +$1.4bn cash and +35k production, low risk. Use that cash to by BP assets targeted by PMO and Dana's 50% of Tolmount before next development, enter the FTSE 100. GLA HNY

Hope its gonna last - Marc Bolan - ahead of the energy curve. GLA HNY

I've called the Paris & Amsterdam courts to rush it thru by the 29th Dec so I win, I've offered them an incentive, I sell 25% of my shares at £1.88 to avoid income tax like the BOD and take it on the chin.. GLA - The key to this is Momentum within the process and we are gaining greater traction with each week . HNY

Itsmymoney - What the feck are you on about, they've beaten the GOI on an award FFS Jesus, this legislation change would not have happened without the CNE BOD.. Stop the FAKE news.