Member Info for BaysilHope

Looking at the Dana Website - 'all kinds of Everything' website' (Thats Age young peeps won't know) - Quote main points:- When PMO was still going - haven't updated it for HBR - Well!...
Under the terms of the deal, Kellas and Dana will jointly fund, construct and own the infrastructure, with Kellas assuming operatorship. Once production begins the venture will be paid a tariff for gas transportation, adjusted based on the volumes delivered.
Premier, meanwhile, is responsible for overall project management, and the delivery and completion of wells — but with a significantly reduced capital commitment than would otherwise have been necessary to realise the project.
Under the agreement Premier would continue as the joint development operator and not only drill, complete and manage the four development wells (subcontracted to Ensco), but also project manage the construction of the independent infrastructure. The preservation of Premier’s ability to oversee the project and retain much of the traditional elements of operator-led decision making and control proved a key decider in moving ahead, Craig noted.

Total development costs for the project stand at around £530 million, with Kellas funding approximately £175 million, and Premier around £90 million. As a partner in both the upstream and midstream JVs, Dana will match each of these respective contributions, totalling around £265 million.
The largest, according to Kellas’ Alan Murray, was the sheer volume and complexity of commercial agreements. While there was no silver bullet to overcoming this, he praised the work of commercial teams across the project who worked diligently to create terms that met the needs of all three parties.

If the contract work is sub standard - there appears to be many mechanisms to recover obvious cost over-runs, as future liabilities to Dana will arise through tariff costs due and contract retention. I'm sure on-going negs are in process with such a massive contract sub standard failure of basics - leading to lost revenue and profit. I smell a claim? gla

£2.88 - NobbyD
£2.85 - BH .... Hope
£2.70 - Emerald
£2.54 - Johnnytaffia
£2.45 - EM202020
£2.40 - StanleyPro
£2.38 - wokinpark

To bolster the earlier post of BOD beaten up & no conviction - Quote RNS - Shell Jaws & Diadem Updates - Listen Quote RNS

In the UK, the Jaws exploration well (Capricorn 50% WI) spudded in November 2021. Drilling operations continue with well results expected later in Q1 2022. - THATS IT !!!!!!!!
No mention of targeting 60mmboe FFS with a world leading partner in O & G

In addition, preparations continue on the Capricorn operated licence P2379 (Capricorn 50% WI) targeting drilling of the Diadem exploration well in Q2 2022. End - What's Diadem ? - for a new investor - what's the target O&G ? FFs - as said in earlier post - these guys - IMO have been shown the Sword... No conviction, sparse on content - just like my ex wife - but by feck she could execute an order. GN GLA - IMO If HBR Tolmount comes on - unhedged gas 20k we're gone.

Something immediately bothered me on the TU, THE TONE OF IT --- CEO BOD should pump the Assets, business model etc etc, GOI update first the hard graft and an outcome - , second Egypt - It might be me - I've written business plans, rescue plans etc always provided the detail to a grammar expert!!! Sell Sell the oppo's - However this is my observation - being in business many years - contrast & compare. Non committal -

Start to Compare First - H1 Results look at the enthusiasm - Start of the RNS Quote - Sept 21 - GLASS HALF FULL - EARLY DOORS
Proposed capital return to shareholders of up to US$700m subject to India resolution Egypt acquisition:
first step in new growth platform Simon Thomson, Chief Executive, Cairn Energy PLC said: “Our significant acquisition in Egypt, which we expect to complete shortly, adds material gas-weighted production, low-cost, near-term growth and attractive exploration potential, in a region with strong demand trends. We intend to use our differentiated financial flexibility to add further scale to our production base and look forward to the next phase of strategic delivery. Progress in resolving our Indian tax issue and active portfolio management leave Cairn well-positioned to deliver growth from a sustainable business, focused on generating further value and returns for shareholders.”

Compare TU Jan 22 Contrast the hubris - or lack of.... but after 4 months progress...
Operational and Trading Update - GLASS HALF EMPTY - LATER DOOR +4MTHS TRADING & BETTER KNOWLEDGE ??? EXPLAIN
"We are very encouraged by the initial operating performance of our newly acquired Western Desert Assets in Egypt, with production growth ahead of expectations. We look forward to accelerating cash flows from the assets whilst reducing their emissions profile. We are actively pursuing opportunities to grow our producing asset base within our strict capital allocation criteria. With balance sheet strength and financial flexibility, Capricorn enters 2022 positioned to make another significant capital return to shareholders with the company having concluded all required steps to enable payment of the India tax refund."

Sparse on content & emotion - If this is not II's grooming I don't know what the feck is.... These guys IMO have been beaten down, change from a divi, which would have stalled an hostile attack - to a Pearl Harbour Tender Offer - waiting for the Japs to line up. Call me Klazy - but thats my gut feeling.

So as far as a GOI receipt acceptance - I'd say a £3.50 bid. Oil majors are offloading $80bn on non strategic investment - all require cash, where can you get 40kbpoed & £1bn cash in your back yard. HNY. Get CNE and buy 3 more FFS.. Gone with the wind. It's written in the BOD TU attitude - already sold. IMO DYOR - 80% owned by II's - hence the change from Divi to Tender Offer

IMO - this TU was given with minimalistic content and NO CONVICTION.... WHY???? & Sp goes up.

POO +$90 the HBR geo thermals off the map - can't hold her Jim, she's breaking up - Quote Lake Toba is the site of a supervolcanic eruption estimated at VEI 8 that occurred 69,000 to 77,000 years ago,[6][7][8] representing a climate-changing event. Recent advances in dating methods suggest a more accurate identification of 74,000 years ago as the date.[9] It is the largest-known explosive eruption on Earth in the last 25 million years. According to the Toba catastrophe theory, it had global consequences for human populations; it killed most humans living at that time and is believed to have created a population bottleneck in central east Africa and India, which affects the genetic make-up of the human worldwide population to the present. - HBR Shareholder are Next - when HBR at FYR, Come on baby!. Need to suck up all the neg and then spew it !! at £4.50Sp GLA

If and I say If the II's consent to a 50% reduction in CNE Shares in Issue in 2022 with $720 buy backs - then they will require profit, retail investors I believe do not hold enough stock for a $500m Tender Offer - let alone $720m -so see earlier post - this Sp at Tender Offer needs to be north of £2.50. IMO DYOR. GLA

Hi Thunder - that's what I said Tuesday - CNE can now be valued as a proper producing E&P unit with over £110m Net CF and growing - I reckon on an EV basis Mkt value Ex cash 22eps x 9 = £1.90 add GOI cash £1.60 = £3.50 less 20 Discount - back to where I said earlier contet £2.85 on GOI news HNY
IMO DYOR This is a strategic transformation to a potential Growth Stock – via a $720m Capital Reduction plan (50%) shares in issue.. Working on the objective II’s & BOD want to reduce shares in issue by (50%) during 2022, utilising the capital transition to transform the company economic dynamics. From such a low shares in issue baseline say 250-260m, incremental earnings will translate into double digit profit and dividend growth, from modest additions to production.

II's have the balancing mechanism for the Tender Offer, to keep the SP in profit. Assuming 20% of 495m shares in issue are PI’s, leaving 80% for II’s simplify maths. Most PI’s I guess want a quicker profit turnaround - assume 100% want out – 100m for sale, $500m available. II’s have the perfect counter balancing weight to keep the SP in profit for redemption. Say they chose target price of £2.35 or $3/ share – PI allocation is $300m, $200m left for II’s at $3/share say 75m shares redeemed. Shares in issue fall to 320m, the remaining $200 Buy back will take out at least 60m, leaving 260m by the end of 2022.
II’s working with BOD provide he flexibility to counter balance tender demand, less PI’s want out – II’s add more, with clear objective on share in issue reduction at profit.

NAV by mid-year, should be $1.45bn – being $1bn 2021 add $360m net retained – add the $75m Q2 North Sea proceeds. $1.45bn or $5.25-5.5/share or £3.90/share before 20% discount, down to say £3.10. Potential PE or Earnings valuation basis – CNE in future will be capable of earning $140m in 2022 & p.a. Net $120m or 45c or 32p /share and growing – assume PE say 9 reflecting cash for expansion supports £2.9-£3 POO and gas dependent. Safe annual dividend 5-7p. Transformation complete, the huge 50% reduction is shares in issue offers a more stable discounted cash flow model for growing earnings and dividends over the next 5 years, that is understandable and very transparent to potential investors, capable of double digit earnings growth, with +$500m available for M&A. Earnings in 2-3 years could easily double through M&A to $1 EPS is reasonable. Leaving remaining holders something juicy to consider. Downside - it will take time to fully enact but worth the wait

Notice 2 large buys post close 250k x 2 - Guessing - Monkey see Monkey do!!! I think the II's will force this on the 'Dirty 2' who need to get back in before GOI pay up. Does not look great on the CV. HNY GLA.
Question - serious, what if all PI's don't offer their shares for sale?? Does the burden fall on II's to provide the stock to equate to $500m - if so at what price would they require to be taken out? Does it pay to just sit tight?
Divi removal does take away a SP collapse. Last Q what happens to 'Stock on Loan' after Form 4? Never been involved in a Tender Offer before.

Lots of peeps have talked about acquiring Serica, Toolbox fixed = Serica output for free in the SP profile - makes more sense to buy Dana's 50% now reserves are lowered, expectations diminished and before Toolbox East, so relatively cheap to a struggling partner - offer an earnout and get it done. At the rate cash is being generated, which the Mkt is ignoring - allows HBR to unlock M&A pent up demand & then accelerate with TM online - very quickly. Transformational next 6-8 weeks. IMO DYOR. GLA - FYR Results I'd guess SP £4.60 providing Ukraine holds up GLA HNY

And So did 2 of the BOD for tax reasons - no commitment form II POV - I think something transformational is happening here behind the curtains or vail of incorporation, kick in the teeth professionally for 2 x BOD getting it wrong on a divi pay-out, I think the II's are letting CNE know who is in control - they were obviously in discussions pre H1 to allow the BOD to state $500m divi RNS, probably not thinking the pay-out would be relatively soon. This change from divi to Share Buy back is huge - it leaves the company wide open to a takeover, as tender Offer price will take 2 -3 months to be decided with paperwork. The II's have potentially laid out a vulnerable - hard to defend target for CNE, as soon as they receive the GOI Cash - IMO - It's come and get it with raging POO & Gas for eager peers needing cash- easy 3 points I say. HNY GLA. The divi route cut that time deadline in half. Good night Irene IMO, CNW will be gone in 2-3 months HNY. IMO DYOR. Still think +£3.50 a share. and £2.85 on receipt of cash.

Tolmount online produces approx same as Serica 9Gas) but should be valued on a marginal costing basis, as HBR debt costs, overheads, E&P etc are already covered by gross profit, so profitability impact - unhedged Gas massive - Serica mkt cap £620m ish = 67p/ share min - HBr has seen £4.30 - with TM online next month its Income = Profit - HBR H1 profits huge, never understood £3.30 nor option trading - its nuts risk, I've just added, missed the bottom, was waiting on CNE. GLA

IMO DYOR This is a strategic transformation to a potential Growth Stock – via a $720m Capital Reduction plan (50%) shares in issue.. Working on the objective II’s & BOD want to reduce shares in issue by (50%) during 2022, utilising the capital transition to transform the company economic dynamics. From such a low shares in issue baseline say 250-260m, incremental earnings will translate into double digit profit and dividend growth, from modest additions to production.

II's have the balancing mechanism for the Tender Offer, to keep the SP in profit. Assuming 20% of 495m shares in issue are PI’s, leaving 80% for II’s simplify maths. Most PI’s I guess want a quicker profit turnaround - assume 100% want out – 100m for sale, $500m available. II’s have the perfect counter balancing weight to keep the SP in profit for redemption. Say they chose target price of £2.35 or $3/ share – PI allocation is $300m, $200m left for II’s at $3/share say 75m shares redeemed. Shares in issue fall to 320m, the remaining $200 Buy back will take out at least 60m, leaving 260m by the end of 2022.
II’s working with BOD provide he flexibility to counter balance tender demand, less PI’s want out – II’s add more, with clear objective on share in issue reduction at profit.

NAV by mid-year, should be $1.45bn – being $1bn 2021 add $360m net retained – add the $75m Q2 North Sea proceeds. $1.45bn or $5.25-5.5/share or £3.90/share before 20% discount, down to say £3.10. Potential PE or Earnings valuation basis – CNE in future will be capable of earning $140m in 2022 & p.a. Net $120m or 45c or 32p /share and growing – assume PE say 9 reflecting cash for expansion supports £2.9-£3 POO and gas dependent. Safe annual dividend 5-7p. Transformation complete, the huge 50% reduction is shares in issue offers a more stable discounted cash flow model for growing earnings and dividends over the next 5 years, that is understandable and very transparent to potential investors, capable of double digit earnings growth, with +$500m available for M&A. Earnings in 2-3 years could easily double through M&A to $1 EPS is reasonable. Leaving remaining holders something juicy to consider. Downside - it will take time to fully enact but worth the wait.

At 5:30 S&P down -3.5% - yet ended up higher, all day US Press pumping out correction 200DMA - & 75 rates hikes in Mar 22, Fed Balance Sheet reduction $5T in 2 months - what a load of merde. POO +$85 - Gas mega high, yet energy smashed TLW down 9% at one stage HBR -6% !!. I've reduced everything last 3-4 days and wait and see mode. GLA. Hope there is good news on India tmz. It's been a long wait, CNE PI's deserve some reward.

So IMO DYOR, Devas is not a Tax case more a contractual dispute, believing the previous news of Air India & Tata deal - there is no Air India implication for settling CNE - i.e potentially indirectly blocking CNE tax refund. In fact it could accelerate it. GLA HNY

Can't post the link but very recent news today.
Devas action won’t delay Air India ..
NEW DELHI: The government does not expect Air India’s handover .. paywall which I can't climb. GLA.GN

My silly mistake Sept, it bit to excited SP was £1.99 pre H1, where the opportunity to short was massive, didn't see the Euroclear Stock on loan. So what's changed in 5 months and we are now lower than Sept £1.91.
1. Tax rules were only drafted 28th Aug for consultation as to compliance mechanisms - time to review.
2. Takes 6 weeks for CNE to agree Irrevocable undertaking with major II's 3/11 RNS
3. Takes 2 weeks for GOI to accept CNE's IR's 18th Nov
4. Takes +60 days to withdraw all Legals and submit an application for the tax refund.
5. Plus 2 weeks to Trading Update.

So all that investment in the refund process and time - has no value to the SP - even a discount. I would expect short positions to adjust - as to pay back a 75p divi is suicide within 4 weeks and all the dark closet arguments about doubt get wasted in a blaze of glory. Time and momentum has now shifted to the LTH and the patient - there are more Knowns and the Unknowns a matter of short time for resolution, justice will be served - GLA Sorry for my outbursts - 5 mths a long time.

Why the TLP - is you is my baby - You're quote - Don't post bellecks ffs - Invest elsewhere Last week - YOUR QUOTE !!!
If CNE had been listed on a US exchange the lawyers would have been seeking shareholders for a class action for the egregious dereliction of fiduciary duty, over here you can hear a pin drop. 700m dollars pre tax was a huge sum to surrender for a company the size of CNE with the GoI over a barrel and without a shareholder vote.
Don't you think Blackrock would have sacked the BOD - Just Proved my point on Shorts S cum Feeckers wees in the dark HNY like this Charlie Uniform - CNE HABE A US BASED II HOLDING What are you human or dancer - The Killers

At the H1 results, CNE had not acquired Egypt assets, had not sold North sea - had little title on long term production assets - and GOI refund was in its infancy, yet the SP spiked at £2.11 on optimism and a squeeze on shorts - More unknowns than Knowns yet the SP has held steady for 5 months.

Pre Close TU 25th, Egypt - +3 months operational experience as owner, N Sea sold cash at bank, GOI all legals withdrawn, waiting for Acceptance Day!. Yet Sp is same position as Unknown knowns - yes over use of the word in annoying!!!. Before Acceptance day , there are +9% stock on loan, numerous Short positions legitimately protecting longs as an insurance.

These peeps would have to repay a 75p dividend to the shares owner as a thank you. Is this SP going to spike on realisation day?????? Forget £2.80 yes over £3 easy. If you inject more than the Book value of a company with pure CASH - £1.57p per share making cash £2.07 p the reaction will seriously hurt a lot of PI's - and the MM's have a history of ruthlessness if you are the wrong side of a trade. Look back to Dec Jan 20 it hit £2.80 - to squeeze short positions it landed back £2.50 ish.
Post divi - CNE would have $900m cash and drip feeding a share buy back prog - which could take 6-9 months enough time for M&A and get output close to 100kbpd. The continuous negativity on here, in the proximity of incredible news - speaks volumes of where some are positioned. GLA

Do not go gentle into that good night,
Old age should burn and rave at close of day;
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
Only 5 more trading days until we will see the light. GLA

Many thanks LC for considerable research and quality posts, which have been extremely informative and right on the money. Greatly appreciated & stuff there I missed. GLA Thx.