Member Info for BaysilHope

Very Interesting the effect on all Oilers. GLA

LL, go to sleep, stop crunchinh numbers, I'm closing down now, great to read your analysis - refreshing from some of the negativity on this BB. we have +£1bn cash and we are complaining. Take out £3/ per share next 3 weeks. GLA HNY

Again LL, as you just stated - most M&A is expensive at $95 POO - EXCEPT CNE we are a gift! -- that's my point, we must be the CHEAPEST M&A opportunity in the entire Oilers universe. I think we are being set up for a change of ownership - with this whole TO switch from the original divi. Key is to watch daily trading volumes. GLA

Hi LL, I agree, I deliberately excluded discontinued earnings i.e the known $75m for N Sea high POO contingent consideration and others - to see if the model held up for a fair valuation. There is no doubt there WILL BE more M&A to come in 2022.
Last point - I think that reported purchase £10m late today is someone building a position and the SP was held down by the 25k block seller deliberately IMO DYOR. Hope that continues. Next week will be interesting. GLA Still think the Tender Offer will be pitched at £2.50 to ensure II's get in as there are not enough PI's to attain a 30% share cancellation. Then vote to cancel the $200m buy back and whilst this enforced elongated admin project is underway, we are just at the mercy of the markets. GLA

The TO objective must be to deliver a 'One Off' material reduction in the shares in issue. IMO that would be 30% a reduction to say 350m shares in issue. $500m = £370m divided by 30% of 495m = roughly 150m shares to be cancelled. thats £2.50 in my book. This opportunity has to be maxed out by CNE, most PI's I guess would accept that exit price and the II's get a Brucie Bonus for their bit. Just my thoughts. I'd keep the $200m and invest it in M&A. FYR 2022 earnings could hit $140m or £110m divided by 350m shares is 31p EPS x 8 PE ratio equates £2.40-2.50, excluding any material M&A in this year. GLA

Simples - expect news Monday. GLA - as they say gotta be in this ober the weekend.

Someone is selling blocks of 25k and thats holding CNE down, with no large volume buying. Our NAV now is $2.10bn or £1.6bn and we have a Mkt cap of £1.07bn as EC says, we stand at 30% discount to NAV and Cash is around $1.3bn or £960m or £1.94p, so CNE Ex cash is £110m for 40kbopd whilst POO is $97\b . Sitting duck.

Keep an eye out - EC FFs go to bed and stop crossing the thread - all you say we know FFS- lets discuss a broader theme. Christ.

If I was a CEO of a Co with a Mkt Cap of £1bn and received £780m cash - through diligent hard work, I would not give 70% of it back to stakeholders. Just a decent divi\buyback, three reasons:-
1. No exceptional use for the cash - You admit to having No Plans to grow the business exponentially with the excess capital.
2. You have already given a massive divi (jan 21) which clogs up tax on income - why do they need more?
3. The distribution plans were changed mid-stream = II's unhappy with the fundamentals with the planned outflow.
4. reflected in the SP - are we being held down???!!!1

IMO A takeover would use the cash far more productively and deliver greater returns in the longer term for II's & PI's IMO. If I had that cash the II's would get basic rate divi and I'm off to the races with M&A FFS. There's lot of action here next 2 months....

GLA HNy

IMO DYOR, CNE today received the $1.06bn tax refund, NAV £3.10 and cash £2.10 per share, CNE SP £2.17 FFS - CNE has circa 40k output for free, an all share bid would have limited dilution given the 30% discount to NAV acquired, bolster cash with +£1bn CASH FFS - reduce future hedging, get HBR to FTSE 100 a.s.a.p an add 20% production increase low risk, low maintenance, no $100 POO M&A premium. its a must go to for immediate consideration - IMO. GLA HNY GN

CNE is now trading at 30% Discount to NAV and only +3% above CASH. Clazy. That's why I say take over - now NAV is fact NOT CONJECTURE -plus anyone getting CNE for sub £2.50 will get $350m discount to Net Assets and can book that (Negative Goodwill) as Income. The only thing not to like is the paperwork and the legal fees. There's no doubt the Ukraine crisis has dominated the market - obviously rightly so and extremely sad and worrying, free lunches are very rarely not taken up with the right offer. The tender Offer rigmarole allows a window of opportunity where the company is wide open (only if the II's see a better alternative). when i say Cheap, I MEAN cheap - any alternative M&A at $100POO will be asking a premium NAV values - we are at a DISCOUNT - TO GET 40K PRODUCTION FOR FREE!!!!!! GLA Sit tight..

Sorry for the title cxxk up- excitement. GLA

At least we know results day will be good and will they have recognised the $1bn award in the 2021 Accounts (no longer contingent) ? CNE have at least $5-600m for acquisitions, which they must have been working on over the last 6 months, another 30kbopd would substantially bolster the earnings profile. The tender circular, buy back details should be addressed before the 8th March FYR day IMO and the press reviews and brokers Re-Rating to follow, once the conflict dust settles. Also trading updates and drilling progress in less than 2 weeks. A lot to look forward to and a huge margin of safety in this risky market trading enviro. This should be a safe haven for funds, never mind represent a very attractive and mercilessly cheap takeover target. A no brainer.

No doubt today's reaction was very disappointing and the massive Stock on loan position hinders the situation. There's a lost to look for to and events\ news that should build up the SP from here, as the Cloud of Uncertainty has lifted at last.

Brilliant Happy New Year +£1bn cash in the Bank $1.4bn - now the games begin. GLA we are valued purely on cash, crazy!!!

IMO - there's 2 trading days left as news will out 28th Feb if Tarun Bajaj keeps his word, which means a press release Friday - quote - Govt to settle almost all retro-tax cases this month: Revenue Secretary Tarun Bajaj
Cairn, from whom Rs 7,900 crore was seized to enforce the retrospective tax demand, as well as Vedanta Group, have dropped lawsuits. Cairn is now eligible for the tax refund. !!!!! Admission of liability public stated as we have all seen. GLA

Just a matter of time - secure supply - and what else help boys...!

Jesus,,!!!! and we treat this Co like merde FFS with a massive crisis increasing in energy security - worries unfolding hourly.

Has to be a major marketing Coupe at the FYR presentation 17th march - 6x times Serica Gas production FFS although a lot hedged more unhedged to flow thru 2022-23, never mind the Oil output. This is a White Knight of UK energy production and not a ****e house dumpsters share as others treat this FFS - especially in a prolonged European Ukraine conflict. We are invested in a Prime O&G Asset and that will flow though into the SP in time, starting with the FYR which will show great 2021 H2 cashflow & Profit and then for 2022 EPS at least £1.25per share and FCF after Capex of $1.3bn = $2bn - What about M&A oppos? GLA

IMO DYOR - First the NED has quality and experience of large industrial roles, why join a struggling CNE if it were stymied by lack of cash for Go Green. Secondly, the deadline for Form 3 response has passed - So it has not been rejected or flawed preventing payment - otherwise there would be an RNS notification. Lastly - why not communicate a Form 4 acceptance - as an aside FFS. We are all here sitting like a bunch of Creitains waiting for the medication FFS. GLA

Suggests One Of The Tightest Oil Markets Ever: • Oil futures are seeing the steepest backwardation in data going back to 2007, suggesting we are witnessing one of the tightest oil markets ever.
• While oil prices fell on Thursday morning due to rumours of an Iran nuclear deal coming to fruition, the near-term oil market will remain very tight.
• The price of Dated Brent physical cargoes traded in the North Sea hit $100.80 per barrel on Wednesday, the first time Brent exceeded $100 since 2014.
The oil futures curve is in such an extreme backwardation that it suggests the oil market is very tight right now, despite Thursday’s move lower after Iran said that a possible nuclear deal was “closer than ever.”
The price of Dated Brent, physical cargoes traded in the North Sea, hit $100.80 per barrel on Wednesday. That was the first time Dated Brent has exceeded the $100 a barrel threshold since September 2014. The jump in physical cargo prices suggests that traders are willing to pay $100 per barrel for actual crude supply right now in a sign of a very tight market, Bloomberg notes.
“The only way to balance this market over the medium term remains high oil prices to slow demand growth,” analysts at Energy Aspects wrote in a note to clients cited by Bloomberg.
Meanwhile, crude stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma—the designated delivery point for WTI Crude oil futures contracts—dropped by another 1.9 million barrels, to stand at just 25.8 million barrels as of February 11—the lowest level since 2018.
Shale isn't going to just jump in, Labour, supply shortages and a desire to reward investors dominate in keeping a lid on output. So Schwee totally disagree. GLA