Member Info for BaysilHope

6/1/22 - Upon its acceptance of the Company's submission that all of those requirements have been satisfied, the Government of India will pay the Company a tax refund of approximately INR 79bn (US$1.06bn). Capricorn is working collaboratively with the Government of India towards expediting the refund within the process of the Tax Amendment Act Rules.
This is our hope. This is the faith that we will go back to LSE with. With this faith we will be able to hew out of the mountain of despair a stone of hope and then - we are free at last.”
We will not go quietly into the night!
We're going to survive!"
When we celebrate our Acceptance Day!
Soon coming to a broker near you. GLA

What do the group think ? - I learned a lot from HBR CMD RNS dropped £1 in three days despite announcing a Divi in PMO's last 7 years history, output +210k up from 160k ish but delays on Tolmount - HBR did rise +50p in the 2 weeks before.

So CNE - I think Pre RNS 24th Jan the SP will hit £2.05 - any India news brushed off unless terms agreed i.e Form 4 signed and sealed - however any drilling great news +Egypt output thrown under the bus - as usual . SP will be smashed by the unhappy brotherhood and will fall back to £1.80 ish - shorts & gamma - . GOI will be close (I think) to a recognisable outcome, they have to react to Air India deadline with Tata same date I think. So cautious optimism. Not confident to short but will hold back reserves to buy more cheaply post RNS. GLA I want my life back now, not waiting on anymore Asian news. GLA So at close on the 25th Jan Post RNS - I'd say £1.82p close -Pre RNS 24th Jan £2.05. GLA HNY

Quote - UK trade minister insists ‘everything on table’ in India talks. Trevelyan says both countries want deal signed and sealed before 2024 elections

The value of UK-India trade, worth £18.5bn in 2020, has stagnated over the past decade. The UK wants flows to more than double to £50bn by 2030. India, with 1.4bn people, is expected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country in coming years, with its expanding middle class creating enticing opportunities for foreign businesses.

Trevelyan also welcomed the Indian government’s move last year to scrap a contentious retrospective tax law that had sparked disputes with British companies including Cairn Energy and Vodafone.
She said the talks would provide a new opportunity “to release some of these historic limitations” on foreign investment.

Cash and debt - CNE today would have access to +£600m (+£250-300m available debt) ready for acquisitions, Egypt should contribute +$140m of Net operating cashflow. So they must have been very active after the confirmed sale of the NS assets. TU 25th Jan should provide an update. GLA . Another +30kboepd would do the trick. With GOI cash - further producing acquisitions are possible - annual output has the potential for over +100k (Egypt should hit +50k in 12 mths) is not unreasonable for end 2022 - with nearly £1bn available to invest in M&A. If the shares in issue fell by +100m during the year - through the $200m buy back - this Share would transform into one hell of an investment over the next 12 mths. IMO DYOR

I did state alongside Oil major offloads producing assets - 2-3 M&A approach. If you have +1-TCF gas you can't ignore that surely.

Good well results this month and Gas development potential, however Chariot -AIM Co is struggling for cash (just raised $2m equity ) and would not have sufficient capital to move forward without a farmin - really would be petty cash for CNE $80m MKt Cap - leaving more than enough for other M&A - target another Oil major off load. Clean energy profile, however in the very early development phase. Would sit alongside more producing assets acquisitions in a growing mixed portfolio. CNE has the potential to an an exciting business - reinventing itself with +2-3 M&A deals, where opportunities exist in abundance, with the super large energy transition underway - some M& A can advance without GOI cash. I know very little about Morocco though. GLA News will out soon.

The Devas case is NOT a Tax issue covered by the recent legislation, although it is important from an Air India point of view, it is NOT A TAX CASE. It is a commercial contract dispute- yet the FT elevate this beyond a land mark potential settlement, which I find bizarre . HNY GLA

Grump, do you work for the Stock on Loan 8.7% peeps? Do you have any idea what an irrevocable undertaking means??? CNE are fully committed to the refund and legally can't pull out - same same GOI.... Devas, not Divas legal action is run by a US PE guy loved by the FT, he gets 10 times more coverage than any CNE RNS, wonder why? Darkest before the dawn, GOI will have to get a move on to sell Air India to Tata, Tata want it after 68 years and Omigone taking to the flu.... , interesting to see how this plays out. I think this genuinely helps CNE get cash earlier - still £2.83 Spike . GNGLA

Why do you state that? This position has been known for sometime. Seizing assets formerly assigned to CNE surely helps us. IMO if anything can be taken from this - well publicised action - it accelerates the need for GOI to act and clear past mistakes & settle the CNE pay-out & closing others and leave this particular case aside. Tata will be on the ball here - expect news soon no doubt.

On my last point, I forgot to mention at £2.83, this is still 10% Discount to Net Assets post award receipt. - These pop up ads are killing this site. GLA

Looking back over the last 14months, we have had real time experience of CNE's SP spiking in different POO and NAV conditions. Firstly 22-23rd Dec 2020, news of $1.7bn award & $250m or 32p divi to be paid on Senegal asset sale. POO was 50% of today and there were 588m shares in issue. So on the 23rd SP spiked from £1.96 to £2.83 or +87p failing back to £2.50 ish and thereafter the 32p divi being paid.

On the 5th Aug on news of the Indian tax law muted to be change £1.24 rise to £1.85 or +61p. Fact. In the 5 months that has transpired the SP has only gained +11p despite all the real life tangible progress. Woeful but what an oppo.

Going back to the SP reaction to the award Dec 20, CNE's NAV was heading for $1.1bn with 588m shares in issue. How much of that award was built in to the SP reaction? CNE NAV accounting for the full award would be $1.1bn plus $1.7bn or $2.8bn NAV per share $4.76 or £3.50, SP only hit £2.83 or £1.66bn and $2.25bn so in reality only $1.1bn of the award was factored into the SP. IMO DYOR, which is what we are expecting next 3-4 weeks. That figure could be reduced by the 32p dividend, so only 55p, probably why the SP settled at £2.50ish
So when we compare real facts, Dec 20 SP build in only part of the India award, with No timeline for realisation, as per the Stat Accounts and a 32p divi and 588m shares in issue +15% or 90m more shares. Today we have line of sight of an offered $1.06bn cash return, from which a 75p divi will be paid with 90m less shares in issue. So IMO DYOR a spike to £2.83 has been done before on the 23rd Dec 20, todays conditions are far more robust - timeline, less shares larger divi, equivalent of the award built in in Dec 20 and POO up +90% on Dec 20- so I stand by my £2.83 spike with some evidence offered to support the view. GLA . I will just add on weakness. The insurance option positions, like Darktrace yesterday will force a spike.

Today Darktrace - from an overly shorted position - Pre Modest TU went from £3.94 Peaked at £4.92 and settled at £4.22 - In my old days that was an accounting error, or Mental valuation or drugs-ish , clearly shows the implications of far more complicated integrated trading configurations, including put options. So the SP exaggeration fluctuations are now built in on material dynamic news. So this baby will fly, just look at Darktrace again - which is NOT doubling it's NAV with Cash. This could be a Cinderella moment and the Markets treating like Fake News or Buttons is pregnant. The possible SP spike could be well over £3. HNY GLA. Camp fire burning draw nearer . HNY The thing to note CNE SP has held steady - held as slight deadlines may has missed, CNE BOD - to date have not mis-fired on news. In fact over delivered recently. Especially stopping all Legals within 2 months - brilliant.

Thx LC I remember this with PMO, pleebs on HBR made a great post on Delta & Gamma regarding options - explaining the large decrease in HBR on disappointing HBR CMD day - however the opposite could occur on great news. I'm a lowly private investor but my guess with these call and put options amplifies the underlying basic SP position - by definition.
So if the Stock on Loan represents a varied Hedge position- in whatever format, the resulting SP move will materially affect options positions (profit & loss) and result in higher than expected SP response. As noted earlier - if CNE successfully sort the out, this SP will explode. Thx for your posts - appreciated.

A rough calc - from the 1st Dec +1.5% increase in the Stock on Loan is approx +7.5m shares, spread over say 30 trading days
allowing for Xmas & New Year holds form the Dec - the stock on loan position needed to add +250k shares per TD to keep a lid on the SP.
It is definitely - this ever increasing insurance or hedge positioning is the major factor keeping this SP rooted to the floor and offsetting all the progress made last 2 months with GOI and the effects of the Share buyback prog IMO DYOR. So EC going back to your SP spike - instead of the Stock on loan increasing by 250k per day, what if it fell by +500k per day???! major correction and getting back to the last 6 month average say 5.5% which is a 3.2% or 16m shares reduction - equivalent to the remaining share buy back prog, then add the £15m cash buy back making a 30m change before the main $200m. Hence why I see the higher SP outcome. IMO DYOR GLA. Not long now, the pressure is increasing daily on the other guy, as their position has to increase daily to hold the collar on the SP.

Hi EC, add to that a material reduction of Stock on loan, when the news is out, which is the opportunity to double the company's Nat Assets with a 100% cash injection and no dilution. IMO there is no doubt the SP is held down as a hedge to a downside surprise, I totally understand that. Remove that risk and the the true value of this unique opportunity will properly unfold.

CNE could then pursue material producing acquisitions, to bolster annual earnings and get to the position where annual dividends are earned through normal trading activities. We must be getting close, look at the increasing profile for Stock on Loan from 7.27% in Nov to 8.7% Jan 22, that's +7.5m shares. Something will have to give, hopefully its the GOI and the cash due. GLA

Do they have to? Anyone on CFD- would they have to pay a 75p divi back for holding a short position - or just absorb it as they have x 3 a long position. ?/ Just don't know. Dangerous times, when really the business facts are getting normalised. GLA

Sorry last post, this is ripe for a sort squeeze, with such a large position on loan 8.7%- do the maths and NO Reason for it... . Ugly, I got caught with Rolls Royce rights issue , got blinded, dumb trade - got burned - not nice. GL IMO DYOR - I can see the bodies getting lined up... Quote Generals gathered in their masses, just like witches in Black masses, see the bodies burning.... and so on. Well don Ozzy. Favourite album paranoid. Who me??

Thanks thecumbrian, I was concentrating on added value, synergy etc which many posters not interested why? however forgot the Massive opportunities offered when a Stock is overly shorted and then the consequences of the main economic reason for the short disappears. CNE stock on loan has been climbing month on month, it is at 50% of PMO levels 2020 - 17% - for a company with a strong economic case - this in itself creates a massive oppo. probably why so many posters are Anti a Bid per se. The more the stock on loan grows & the stronger CNE's case gets settled - good for me, great for you, sound off. So carry on shorting - max my profits. GLA GN IMO DYOR.. Someone's going to get hurt. ME - I believe the BOD.& Barclays .. GL HNY

My guess is related to Stock on loan 8.7% Quote euroclear
ENQ 2.07
HBR 2.86
SQZ 3.91
TLW 5.51
CNE 8.68
My thinking is that - at the highest rating is a hedge for GOI not paying - Fair enough, if they do Pay soon and the divi due +44m shares don't want to be short. That's my Wild guess!!!! anyone?? Why there will be a spike???

See earlier posts - as for HBr targets for CNE's +$1.4bn cash, buy out Dana 50% of Tolmount, previously on the table +20kboe- not made up, acquire BP assets formally assigned to PMO 2020 - failed due to lack of cash 20kboe, add CNE's output 50k and that's 90k for starters increasing HNBR output by +45% within 1 year - with $2.5bn cash & debt available left to spend - Simples Init.