Member Info for BaysilHope

High risk being short before Monday RNS - Hey K why mention £1.68 sweet pea, Is you is playing games. GLA HNY

Thx Pleebs totally agree - fecking waste of time - when CMD is tmz.. GLA

The SP on the 5th Aug hit £1.85 + 50p , just on the news the GOI were considering a change in the law - unknowns to knowns 80:20. 3 months on, H1 results outlinig Share con & Divi, next completion of Egypt , plus sale of North sea - more cash - CNE confirmed undertaking being accepted by GOI, FD selling shares to reduce tax liability on the divi and change of Co name - which is linked to a tax deal and a fundamental move.. So IMO the unknown to known ratio is now reversed 20:80 - yet the SP is the same. At the time of the Omicron news Oilers fell TLW ENQ CNE BP, 26th Nov all have recovered +10% yet CNE a mere 5%, despite a £20m share buy back prog, which is mis-firing on volume terms. We are set up here to be discounted - short term . When news breaks - and its soon this SP goes its +45p minimum. The momentum on this stock is about to fundamental change for the better. GLA

I've given the grand kids a puppet of Modi celebrating diwali seasons greetings, together with a scaled model drilling rig for Jaws Shell JV 1:500 scale - its educational. The kids - a growth vehicle 1000 CNE shares each, must hold until a bid. Parents, 2000 each income stock, gifted the dividend 75p, what's that 40% return - to get through the winter heating bills and a hedge against high gas prices - they fecking loved it. I've got an appointment next week with the tax adviser for CNE FD's disposal, expensive. GLA

SK thx for the reply, I to - have shared your experience. This is a very volatile mkt next few weeks, need to focus. GL

SK - from another planet - bleep - iz you selling the rumours and buying the news? And iz you in or iz you out SK baby. Don't trust the FTSE or SP500 CPI awaits. GLA

IMO - From H1 results - Take base case H1 150k output & only 3mth of Old PMO sales= $1.5bn, add output increase O&G H2 approx +31% = +$0.6bn, add +3mths of PMO not in the $1.5bn starting position say $0.15bn Catcher & Asia min. Add POO & Nat gas price increase less hedges say $0.2bn - equals $2.45bn compared for H2 compared to $1.5bn H1. Makes 2022 forecast with Tolmount & Asia & other dev wells nearing +$5.5bn. SP massively undervalued - EBITDA 2022 +$2.2bn > then debt FFS. GLA.

IMO - The MM's have maxed their depression and suppression time news - procedural delay vacuum card, the forward time curve now favours CNE. I've noticed the SP performance in the face of very challenging conditions last week and question - why are we down for the next few days (even Brent crisis down to $67 last week) - IMO creating a bottom to move forward:-
1. Omicron fear - news 26th Nov
2. OPEC increasing prod'n new 2nd Dec
3. Fed increasing tapering and rate hikes
4. Global impact on Old demand.

In front of all these obstacles - CNE held at £1.78 last week. So post trauma - looking forward - With over $1.4bn in cash within weeks , the BOD will have a problem holding down the dividend, as on receipt probably the most undervalued share in the FTSE350, imagine the re-rate, imagine the GOI press on settlement - global news event. On news - in 2 trading days after news - this will pass thru £2 and then its too late baby - look at the reaction to the innocuous news 5th Aug up +30p. This was +£2.30 on arb win - with no time line to cash. Now there is a timeline to cash - divi will be +75p after current share buyback. Down to faith here - this is a gift for the patient. . GLA

IMO DYOR - I think the MM's realise this is the last week on the news/progress drought - So push the SP up in the morning and short drive it down in the week, hoping peeps will out. Been 6 weeks since last India RNS - change of name (thats a condition of settlement) next Monday 13th - so 4 trading days to get in cheap - for late comers before more India news on that day. I think we are past the take off point - where the finishing deadline is shorter than the previous part of the race - its where the SP should start reflecting that.
HBR are up as their CMD is the 9th Dec, with good news on output, debt reduction & Tolmount update - that will add interest to mid cap Oilers and a welcome lift. GLA. Did add a little today.

When I look back on how I've been played here by the MM's I could kick myself. We all know ANY golden oppo can disappear in 2 TD's - Fear Of Missing Out - FOMO. So my CNE holdings have varied but have tied up capital with no divi, clever MM's creating the frustrating cheap sale release. Well, since the last India RNS 3rd Nov - time is now balancing toward the faithful. - Risk reducing - opportunity increasing - As the window of opportunity shortens at these prices as the wort is in the rear view mirror - the reverse logic kicks in - dive in a few days to go - we all want a ticket, so you have to pay more....
After 10 weeks - there is no time premium built into the SP - so IMO this will get snapped up very quickly. News is due 13th Dec to reconfirm Name change - which is monumental in the scheme of things and after 6 weeks - we need an update.
Quote - My word is my Bond- If India go back on that - well as MSF increasing their holding - their status to attract capital is destroyed. GLA HNY

In the M&A middle weight arena , you need quick access to capital effective critical mass financial muscle - 925m shares at £4 - Mkt Cap sits in the Goldilocks range for deal making - a £1bn deal has a material impact on earnings - which theoretically could be 250m shares at £4 or a gross dilution 21.27% dilution, as long as the deal is accretive - rinse and repeat, exponential growth with this market ready for deals - supply of oppos - no probs... and we can complete quickly= discount . We are good to go here - just need a couple of electricians and a few translators. HNY Watch this space post CMD. 3 trading days to go.

Sercia too small IMO DYOR better off getting balance of Tolmount - doesn't give critical mass, notice Shell leaving cambo N Sea leaving options , so many M&A oppos - HBR are sitting in a prime place. GLA Gn

Its a bit drastic - the SP action- considering our income stream dynamics and we are 1 month closer to an outcome - based on the last 3//11 RNS - I've added enough already, not long for some news, change of name RNS due 13th Dec. GLA

I deliberately resisted saying that....... just!!!! My coat is already on.

Listen to the Bloomberg expert this morning, did not mention SPR release or Iran! If i was an OPEc bod - five major concerns:-

1. Omnicon - impact of Global Demand
2. Really Upset with US SPR release - next 2-3 months - interfering when Shale could sort it out
3. Iran - additional volume - Nuke talks - unknown
4. Global travel impact - whatever the efficacy of vaccines
5. Current collapse in Brent from $86-$69 - need to restore to mid 70's

IMO DYOR, KSA & Russia don't like being bullied - mid $70's POO suits all - brings inflation down and preserves margins.
Right - time to grab a handful of slow cooked lamb mutton cheek and a handful of rice, left hand obviously. HNY GLA

Good point, my Arabic is a bit rusty! Shukran.

$10bn add Vantage towers $18bn - easy PE target. Joke _ I'm been long before the Liberals won power - Gla - One day...

See previous posts - somewhat poetic - deep joy. Quote the late great Stanley Unwin created his own language as a real Professor for kids - Alltime sometime deept joy of a full moon scintyladen dangly in the heavenly bode. But now only half! So, gathering all behind him the hintermost, he ploddy-ploddy forward into the deep complicadent fundermold of the forry to sort this one out. Simples - what a genuine man in real life... Liven up the mood. FFS

Cheers, a constructive argument before CMD date would be appreciated. GLA GN Last post

If acquire CNE with HBR shares for Cash - $1.4bn add 40k production, enter the FTSE 100, use cash & shares 50:50 to acquire 1\3 Neptune production and 50% of Tolmount from Dana - + 350-400kbpd output at $70 Sp +£8/share easy to acquire balance of Neptune HBR Mkt Cap Phase 1 £15-18bn with 1.8bn share in issue POO $90. GLA