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Hi Th, I think II's will balance the books with the release of supply. So Yes - it's there's share price range that gets the job done, with $200m to back up the repurchase scheme. The unknow is - IMO DYOR - M&A progression & a bid. GLA $1.40bn cash valued at £1bn Mkt cap - is a gift & will wet the odd appetite. Market expects very busy M&A for all Oilers in 2022 - with over $40bn opportunities in the market, as majors reshuffle their portfolios. GLA

If the Stock on loan is 64m shares is as Th2040, then its a substantial tax saving scheme. No point doing it for a 10p rise in the SP. As stated before PI's at best have 10-15% of CNE, the vast majority are institutions. They must have control over the Tender Offer target SP by limiting the supply of what quantity gets repurchased. They must be happy - 2 reasons , 1. To force CNE away from a divi towards the TO. 2 Also forcing CNE to hand over control of the Tender Offer price to the II's, as its their supply will dictate the TO price. Given the magnitude of the tax planning measures executed so far - expect a good exit price - the Tender Offer needs to be significantly large enough to reduce the shares in issue and achieve its purpose, yet still bolster the TO SP - 150m share reduction at £2.50 could do the job.

One thing's for sure the flow of good news- over the coming weeks can only benefit the SP. GLA

Well played Ant1986, great contribution from various sources, thank you. Should we expect an RNS stating Form 4 has been issued? Confirming your research and the key point India has crystallised the refund liability- irrevocable guarantee= cash. GLA

So you return the stock at the price you loaned it at or shorted- don't make sense when the SP will fly on receipt on $1.06bn, I may be missing the point here, but the reason the SP is so Subdued is because of the short position - they'll lose out - surely. I probably am dull - sorry. GLA The point I made earlier stands, if the SP is manipulated for tax, that undermines the Corp Strategy really - what an oppo for a TO. GLA The FT article seems surprised there's no reported short positions. But this is over my head a tad. GLA

Doesn't this signal to anyone predator with an appetite of $1.4bn cash and modest debt, a obvious Takeover target = surely you can't get a clearer signal FFS, lead by the II's who control 80% of this company, the SP is artificially held low IMO DYOR what a gift! Still don't understand why the stock on loan is SO large 13% - 5% yes - other than CGT??!! Unless its a rouse - a sprat to catch a Whale. HNY GLA

Can somebody far cleverer than me - and that-s a lot, explain taking stock on loan to reduce CGT. Say CNE tender Offer gets a SP of £2.80 and the II's average cost is £2 for simplicity - (lot lower obviously) - the TO buy back creates an 80p taxable gain and that obviously is a problem for II' s hence the 13% stock on loan. So if a 50p gain suits all tax wise for the buyback , short at £2.00, buy back the short at £2.30 creates a 30p loss to cover the buy back - net gain 50p. If this happens- this share will spike far higher before the TO is transacted. Why is this always made so difficult, why not short some fecker with$8trillion debt for God's sake. GLA - & Why so high 13% - the Tender Offer will be lucky to get back +120m shares. Help???!!!

The list of London’s most shorted stocks has a new entry: Capricorn Energy. The Edinburgh-based oil explorer, formerly known as Cairn, came from nowhere this week to become the London Stock Exchange’s third most bet-against company after Cineworld and shopping centre owner Hammerson. Data compiled by IHS Markit showed that since late January about 64m Capricorn shares worth £130mn had been loaned out, equivalent to 13 per cent of its market value, from less than 1 per cent previously.

Yet there were no new disclosures in the Financial Conduct Authority’s daily short positions report, where borrowers are legally required to log all UK short positions above a share capital threshold of 0.1 per cent. What might explain the anomaly? It’s perhaps worth noting that Capricorn is waiting for a $1.1bn tax refund from the government of India. Immediately after the cash arrives Capricorn plans to launch a $500mn cash return to shareholders via a tender offer. According to securities lending specialists, some Capricorn shareholders may wish to avoid passing the tax refund from one government to another.

Placing shares temporarily with a borrower in a lower tax jurisdiction ahead of the tender’s launch could be a mechanism to reduce their liability to capital gains tax, they said. The sudden jump in short interest was therefore taken to suggest that, after more than seven years of wrangling with India, investors have grown confident that the refund will be arriving imminently. Capricorn declined to comment. Of the company’s two biggest shareholders, MFS Investment Management said it did not discuss individual securities in its portfolios and BlackRock directed us to a website post setting out its general policies on institutional securities lending.

End Why me? Why do I pick a share that jumps to a record short position? FFS and what does this mean for the SP when these guys reduce!!!!

Agreed WP, hopefully they'll pitch it (balancing mechanism) so it's a win win and get the transition to a much smaller capital base consistent with its lower earnings base, then CNE BOD utilising surplus cash to grow profits at double digit pace starting H2 7 tail end of 2022 - with plenty of scope for M&A.

According to msn 80% of CNE has institutional involvement, so even if all Pi's offer their shares and get £2.50, that's only 100m or £250m capital reduction, leaving £175m in the pot, so this process will involve II's reaction- participation, it will be interesting how this pans out. GLA

This article says it all about Kirk's ambitions - How carbon capture can seal the Humber's emergence as the industrial equivalent of Silicon Valley - Harbour Energy's European president and chief executive talks to Business Live about V Net Zero joining the dots to decarbonisation - David Laister. Phil Kirk, European president and chief executive of Harbour Energy, the company leading on the V Net Zero transportation and storage system for captured carbon from the South Humber Bank refining cluster 'joining the dots' of major industry on the decarbonisation journey.

Key point - “It is the ability for industry to plan, for entrepreneurs to start up new business that can spark off what is happening - what the government calls a super place - and it is, almost an industrial equivalent of Silicon Valley. Guaranteed client - HBR - Tolmount is safe. IMO

IMO DYOR kirk's CV stands out, he's not a quitter, he's very well respected and with +$50m can get the top job where ever he goes. Therefore - after +18yers work he not going to leave HBR in a mess and bad press nor negativity, nor harm is 1.4% stake. IMO before the 28th Feb Tolmount will be delivered for certain- well before that I think so he can enjoy pulling the PMO beast around and have a good send off. GLA

mole_man99 why only £1 - especially with a 6% divi, why not short elsewhere and give LTH a break from the Mikeyh norm, this is a serious business and deserves a lot more respect that the trash can bandits. Where would Europe have been in lockdown without Mobile connectivity - I'm bored with it - the Sp is up +16% FFS its NOT WORKING - add some depth. GLA GN or context - it could sell Vantage Towers on a +25 PE and half debt losing $1bn Net income contribution - Different business - One deal - Hence Cevian - easy plot - you-se guys will get burned... HNY Please stop the shallow good cop bad cop - it's not working Sp £1.25 not £1.06 ffs

The GOI have had our Form 3 first week in Jan. Allow for COVID- we should have a response soon. India is currently revising its budget and will have a fiscal deficit of +$200bn as it spends to revive growth, which should mean it need foreign capital inflows, yet more so for foreign hard wired investment like Tesla.. etc I'd say Monday7th Feb - if not invest in Soviet Armour Manufacturers 'SAMS's ' - a good winter bet hedged bet against POO. HNY GLA

Bigbas2all +£3 that's a first - - can't fault it - whooosh, before you know it. Good luck, luv the appetite.

Last simple Point World Geo landscape - One of the Soviet Union's greatest disability is its great land mass borders - from a military point of view with a small population. So Russia have to be strong - with all of Europe & US on its left flank, China on the East, Afghan & Middle east to control, only limited access to the sea, Baltic, Med - Pacific. It has no choice - west needs to cut some slack, Ukraine joining NATO - come on, Its like Scotland joining Russia - there are massive differences nationally, but national security is paramount. GLA Any conflict POO $100 HNT

What a turnaround - at last someone has broken the deadline. Cevian have been brave enough to take a discounted cheap seat in the house - that doesn't only cover investment costs but provides a profit, can only grow, GLA. Simple model - in time will work +50%.per their average..

Cevian can afford to take its time with Vodafone cashflow wise - with a +5% yield and their Interest costs are zero, the profit pays for the Entertaining, travel and meetings - Brill idea for only 810m shares or 3% which will only increase. IMO DYOR it's a win win an news of Vantage Towers 1st FEb, Voda 2nd Feb and Mpesa to float next 3 months . GLA

Thanks Surfit, I have had first hand experience of these contractual matters, usually on the defence side - but not in 'Offshore O&G' environment - normal commercial dealings yes, mainly property. An escalating delivery construction failure -with cost and loss implications - is like a divorce - No Doubt it drains management of time, stress, effort, focus , morale for anybody in business - The Monkey on your back could become a Gorilla, or a Kong , if not managed properly - . I think HBR are ruthlessness enough to bring this contractual failure - to Max advantage in contract negs. GLA HBY

Last point - feels like a dilapidations claim on commercial property, where they claim for everything, you've vacated and it becomes a matter of damage limitation. In this case - both opposite JV partners have spent the cash:-
1. No production to date - No tariff income for them - their finances struggle with the debt & overhead burden - dead money to date - 2 years
2. Still funding construction buildings costs +$400m - Loan Interest & property overheads building daily pressure
3. Physically BOD & Senior management tired and frustrated at failure to deliver on deadline
4. Facing Breach of contract terms Re Equipment & Infrastructure building pressure
5. Rig safety - earlier with emissions - claim down the contract hierarchy
5.Cost overruns building week by week - pressure for claim
6. Loss of Income and profits - claim potential growing week by week pressure

Come into the parlour said the spider to the Fly? GLA - In a perfect world take them out. GLA IMO DYOR

Does a material breach of contract to whatever party = Acquisition discount? - even if its infrastructure? - HBR have lost say - 4mths potential production due to sub standard work = at High Nat Gas prices plus cost overruns = +$400m????? Start taking baby.. 2250 faults -7 months - 13 amp fuses on a gas Rig?? FFS HNY - hence no news IMO GLA - When this JV happened it was PMO - NOT a PE back ground HBR machine - plays into their hands.. IMO DYOR.