Member Info for BaysilHope

Ah, BTB's got a deal with the Sunday times, so for me its 14 sleeps, I've got my blankie, dummy-she's watching Eastenders and Ralphy the dog, 8 o'clock tuck in. GLA There's no place like home, there's no place like.... and no Klingons.

MP I was only joking, I've seen that article before actually on here, actually and thought the same, there's no problem you having a relax on a Saturday night, no one is as bad as me for the haze and fog, except this weekend I've got toothache, hence the green tea. Please post, it's good to see anything, any news before TO day. GLA

Ref: my earlier post - The BOD understand only too well, after CMD - the Tolmount disaster absolutely flattened this SP by £1 a share, taking nearly a £1bn off Market Cap. Capt kirk's gone after the 4th missed deadline - Q1 is the Red line in the sand. I'm not sure Jim, I can't hold, I'm not sure if she can make it - rings through my mind - on a daily basis!! I'm in now whatever, just keep an eye on any Klingons de-cloaking in March.

They can't afford any further reputational disaster, especially before any M&A and buying CNE (which has $1.4bn cash) with equity at £5 a share = 300m shares issued - only 1/3 dilution - simples. Then you have a monster... GLA GN

Hang on MP - more like 657 x CNE Mkt Cap $908bn!!!! - I wish - thats an SP of £1,300 per share - I'd take that instead on the TO any day. Typo must be or have they see the FTR draft?......

Hi BTB, I'm in since post CMD and will remain in throughout, it's just a question as to what degree. I'm a very firm believer here, post results, post Tolmount, Post EIG, post POO fall and post conflict. This company has the potential to develop SCALE quickly and with limited risk and that's key IMO, clear these hurdles an there's a massive upside potential. Trouble here is & always will be, extreme volatility on any bad news is brutal. Hence cautious trading until....

I've asked on operations update, I have no technical knowledge - all I know - any further delays beyond Q1 will be wacked and I'm guarding for that. GLA

Pleebs, when do you think news on Tolmount will out, before the FYR or on the 17th March. How close do you think we are and where's the Purford 6??? GLA

Great point, good research smet, I factored worst case. Thx BH

On the 5th Mar 21 CNE SP was £2.046 Mkt Cap with 500m shares in issue = £1.02bn - NAV was $1.126bn or £1.67 share the SP was +22% above book. Post India receipt - 2022 NAV should be $2.07bn shares 495m $4.18 or £3.10 NOV or book value of which nearly 70% is cash. The SP £2.10 Mkt cap £1.04m - so Mkt cap unchanged???!!! The discount to NAV now is -33%.

Does the 20% SOL have a bearing on this???

I know I'm repeating part of an earlier post- but very relevant. it is noticeable that PI's are being discouraged from buying CNE - Take the FT article 4th Feb (The Fecking Title!!!!: Capricorn Energy: short stories - The list of London’s most shorted stocks has a new entry: Capricorn Energy. The Edinburgh-based oil explorer, formerly known as Cairn, came from nowhere this week to become the London Stock Exchange’s third most bet-against company after Cineworld and shopping centre owner Hammerson. Data compiled by IHS Markit showed that since late January about 64m Capricorn shares worth £130mn had been loaned out, equivalent to 13 per cent of its market value, from less than 1 per cent previously.

Yet there were no new disclosures in the Financial Conduct Authority’s daily short positions report.

According to securities lending specialists, some Capricorn shareholders may wish to avoid passing the tax refund from one government to another. Placing shares temporarily with a borrower in a lower tax jurisdiction ahead of the tender’s launch could be a mechanism to reduce their liability to capital gains tax, they said.

Equally important - the FT DID NOT report CNE receiving the $1.06bn - just taking the pxss, in the earlier article.

So why would II's develop a 20% Stock on loan position - up +7% form the earlier FT article??!! It acts as a massive SP suppression tool, creating uncertainty. Which is what they want. Holding the SP down?? Surely not for a 5-10% return and IMO why the +7% in the last 3 weeks???

JPMorgan Says $185 Oil Is in View If Russian Supply Hit Persists 66% of Russian oil is struggling to find buyers currently Oil prices have surged above $110 as buyers shun Russia output.

Surely that puts a premium on CNE cash for any predator's perspective, if not the collateral to hedge forward Oil and grab high Oil or just the basics to advantage output at an accelerated pace. Bottom line CNE cash at +$120 should be at a premium to Oilers.

Funny when the SP falls certain peeps emerge? Owls, the market obviously knows a Million times more than I ever will know, but one can observe its actions and develop knowledge to try and gain an advantage IMO. Why would they build a Stock on Loan position of 20% +100m shares for a 5-10% return on a Tender Offer?!!! Or are there large plans a foot, offering far greater profit??! I Obviously believe the latter.

The Mkt stance - push profit into other low tax markets - for 5-10% ?? does not make sense, doubt it BUT +50% yes and they can control that out come, as CNE is largely controlled by 80% II's - all a predator needs to win over the largest and bang CNE's gone without a fight. Hence the book build and expect more holding RNS next 3 days. GLA Companies like HBR can offer a far greater profit growth story with £1bn and 40kboe output and stable dividend flow without disposals.

The truth will be out soon. GLA My holding is a bit like the Russian 40m convoy, bogged down in mud. Our sympathy has to go to those suffering and try and support their plight, with whatever resources we have available.

IMO expect more Holdings RNS before FYR day. GLa

Owls what are you on about, you don't receive your market cap in cash and be lower than last Dec 21 when CNE hit £2.85 on the hope of the cash payout.

Last point - the Stock on Loan rationale is a beautiful excuse (Under the cover of Darkness) - it suppresses the SP via the doubt anxiety route and serves it's purpose very well. M&A in the O&G sector is a NO No at PEAK POO $110 & Nat Gas $200boe - paying a premium for any asset would be counter productive. So where else ?????? All roads lead to CNE cheap cash, cheap assets grow your own. GN GLA IMo DYOR

The objective of the TO is to materially reduced issued share capital of CNE - say 150m shares 30%, a bid would destroy that entire mechanism - say £3.25, so CNE would have no defence - Divi ruled out - by II's - as I said a trillion times - CNE BOD are cornered if indeed a bid was to transpire, IMO DYOR and they could not go against all the II's weight of numbers. I believe we are have witnessed the build up of multiple financial institutions co-ordinated Iceberg positioning. Last post - going to watch football.

I bet the Iceberg order is co-ordinated - across multiple II players each Scavenging and getting a couple of % each in the shadows. Hence the large spread SOL. IMO DYOR NAV $2,070m = £1.53bn or £3.10p per share 30% discount and cash $1.3bn = £962m or £1.95 per share - SP £2.15 - can't get a better bargain in Poundland FFS . Where's the Accountancy degree that explains - manipulation and greed and gets past the FCA rules !!!! GLA Fxxxing joke. Buy and hold

Or Stingray - anything can happen in the next half hour, but its a fxx ing large iceberg - Quote An iceberg order is an order to buy or sell a large quantity of a financial security that, rather than being entered as a single, large order, is broken up into several smaller orders. Iceberg orders are primarily used by large, institutional traders who wish to conceal a large trade they are making. An iceberg order is an order to buy or sell a large quantity of a financial security that, rather than being entered as a single, large order, is broken up into several smaller orders. Iceberg orders are primarily used by large, institutional traders who wish to conceal a large trade they are making.

last week was JPM Chase - trading vols are high + fingers crossed. GLA Only 3 TD's before FYR.. HNY

Something is brewing IMO- 4.2m shares at £2.196 , nearly £9.4m on a down day when O&G are flying. The stock on loan - 20% = 100m shares are held to serve profit re-allocation, so these peeps need a return. Tender Offer or bid, JP Morgan are sent to hold us down with another low ball re-rate why?? As stated earlier any bid will wait for the TO price o be announced - likely FYR 8tgh Mar -3 trading days - not long. Am totally fed up with the games. There again £3 bid is worth the pain. GLA

BOD Don't give away - Bill's legacy to a Nation.
O flower of Scotland
When will we see your like again
That fought and died for
Your wee bit hill and glen
And stood against him
Proud Edward's army
And sent him homeward
Tae think again

The hills are bare now
And autumn leaves lie thick and still
O'er land that is lost now
Which those so dearly held
And stood against him
Proud Edward's army
And sent him homeward
Tae think again

Those days are passed now
And in the past they must remain
But we can still rise now
And be the nation again
That stood against him
Proud Edward's army
And sent him homeward
Tae think again

GLA

Alexander the Great never lost a battle and against the Persians, the 26 year old needed an experienced general of the last resort to defend against an army +8 times its size. In a victory still studied by Nato - an inferior army defeated a horde of mercenaries , massively outnumbered - battle of Gaugamela. CNE is in the same place, has everything in place but under massive attack by superior predatory Market forces, needs the BOD to produce some value added moves. HNY GLA Like a TO of £2.50 and attract a bid. FFS as that is at discount to NAV £3.10 ... is a zero sum game to fail for CNE and win for the predator s------ SO THE TENDER OFFERS 20% BELOW THE NAV before execution - the 4 week window of opportunity -- .....Good night... and JPM Chase have 5% within 2 minutes...

Why cut the SP target after the purchase - IMO absolutely Limited understanding - they are holding for a client - the SP was held down with 10m volume & limited with 8m volume and NO BUY BACK scheme - JP Morgan is 5% with FI's, its not a Tender Offer - its The Ides of March - et tu Brute. Given the brutal crime of Ukraine - at least after waiting 6 months we have limited downside which is one worry less in war time market chaos and as so my & the old girl will be sending food funds abroad curtesy of HBR. GLA