Member Info for BaysilHope

After hours 8.6m 15/12? Good luck tmz all.

Last placing was 15% clouded by Stelios limited to raise £420m , shares issued at £7. Now have to repay emergency Govt £500m COVID loan, taxes and all else - debt high - nearly maxed - until the Vaccine benefits truly kick in Q3 I guess. Q - is how many shares and at what price? - not if but when, whilst the SP is flying on today's planned Re Rate - £8.40, hence the involvement of Alixpartners. After IAG & RR massive RI's - the demand for EZT RI shares will be there no doubt + at a discount, the placing would see it survive comfortably . With no Stelios distraction. GLA Place your bets.

Quote what I said earlier - but ignored -
Unlocking €21bn Potential Value & Lifting Funding Restrictions 13 Nov 2020 15:44
The lack of access to additional finance, coupled with stagnant earning limits VODA’ s Market Cap. With revenue pushed down by COVID and €2-3bn of synergy savings and revenue benefits +2 years away, plus 5G 18months away - SP can’t Re-rate given the following reasons
A. Increasing capital commitments:-
1. 16-17% of revenue required to finance Normal operational telecoms Capex expense to keep pace with technology & equipment
2. Add Capital Commitments related to 5G rollout next 18mths
3. New additional commitment of Replacing Huawei kit
4. Funding Divi’s albeit reduced
5. Cash available for modest acquisitions or licences – like Egypt Spectrum etc etc
B. Restricted Access to Finance – Equity Raise ruled out by deliberately Low SP
1. Little available bank finance when Net Debt is €48bn, same with Bonds as gearing restrictions will hamper the SP
2. Any pure VODA Rights Issue ruled out due to deliberate low SP – no market appeal for general highly geared European Telecom’s
3. Poor historical Trading results – limited cash generation COVID & synergy benefits a way off
SOLUTION - €21BN Vantage Tower IPO
Issuing equity at a P|E ratio +20 to finance the main entity with a single digit PE post COVID and acquisition benefits is a masterstroke IMO DYOR, in one stroke removes the Access to finance limiting factor. Bridges the 2 year gap to substantially increased VODA earnings beautifully.
Shares can be issued in tranches after the IPO upto an outright sale. VODA with a Market Cap of €35bn, includes – at todays SP - the €21bn for Vantage, so one of the largest telecom’s provider in Europe is valued at €15bn but has access to potentially €21bn cash form equity finance of Vantage Towerrs, via a complete sale!!! i.e massively reduced funding limitations - more than satisfies its business capex commitments, until acquisition synergies can be earned, 5G revenue growth in a post COVID market and maybe Post Brexit, Jesus I sound like a mobile phone sales rep.
This game changing access to funding should re-rate the business eventually, the Market should not fear a pure VODA Rights Issue for many years , there is no need to suppress the Market CAp, the re-rate should not be deliberately restricting the SP. Only my opinion. With the US rotation into cyclicals and massive US money to hand from Tech, I can’t see many better VALUE stocks yielding 7% in the FTSE 100, despite competition risks etc etc. GLA IMO DYOR - it has to all happen yet.

I have to quote another BB - I never do but FFS unless its Xhit . ' Yes zero benefit to VOD stakeholders aside from a chunk of debt being paid off. Probably worth about 25p on the price. spud. Thats the VODA massive - if 20% is worth €5bn whats the 100% worth €21bn Jesus .... Plus the 5G roll out- No point posting on, this is like the GOP no rebuking Donald Trump. All the best GLA Catherine Tate - Whats a fecking Liberry. GLA

Please tell me I'm a Celebrity get the Feck Out of here!!! According to the Google search Telifc is €21.8bn Euors same as our subsidiary Vantage Towers, WOW and not reflected in our SP , we can float 25% of that + gain €5bn euors only +ve impact on the Balance Sheet and TeflonICA are smashed with high debt and the merger challenged. Are we undervalued!! We can raise another €4bn on the next 20% without losing control. Like Trump supporters - NOBODY IS GETTING THIS FFS!!! HNY GLA

I Said - if you read - a potential RI is the panic button the MARKET WON'T SUPPORT = HENCE KEEP THE SP DOWN, ffs Read Man. I'm an Industrial Accountant (was pre COVID) and there are many limiting factors to any business, People - Internally, Executive, Customer, Supplier , as Paul said in the Bible states in Corithians says the greatest of these is Cash., or access to.... & THEN, The Grail = Equity Captial Finance with no dilution!!! , its ALL about People at the top & management gravitas and vision. IMO DYOR, they have endured a lot of headwinds (India Voda/Covid) and been flattened by it, but have shown great endev, taken necessary risks taken , been far from complacent. Their legal team should be sponsored by SKY or INEOS for 24/4/365/60 to get massive Glogal complex deals done - in time . What a human asset - so undervalued. Get the People Right (Innovation Creates the Market in Telecoms) the Market will follow, the innovation lead, they will create oppos IMO , but its Finance is the 9 incher & with Vantage, when you are indebted & pants squeezed!! that you can't execute a plan other than survival. Equity release upto €21bn cash from the Vantage Tower IPO is a game changer !!! - I notice VODA has 4.4% Short tracker position killing the SP as of last week - what about the Vaccine, 200dma was 118.6 - so no real COVID premium yet in the SP FFS with a 4p divi thats going to hurt especially when BJ - PM does a UT turn and concedes to a Brexit deal to stay in power after the economy has been devastated by COVID> GN. A no Trade deal - with Biden Ireland - we are in the Stone Age --- Sorry for the rant GN, as trump states FAKE NEWS NEVER SAID VODA RI Donkey... but how its stops it. Trump supporter obviously.

The lack of access to additional finance, coupled with stagnant earning limits VODA’ s Market Cap. With revenue pushed down by COVID and €2-3bn of synergy savings and revenue benefits +2 years away, plus 5G 18months away - SP can’t Re-rate given the following reasons
A. Increasing capital commitments:-
1. 16-17% of revenue required to finance Normal operational telecoms Capex expense to keep pace with technology & equipment
2. Add Capital Commitments related to 5G rollout next 18mths
3. New additional commitment of Replacing Huawei kit
4. Funding Divi’s albeit reduced
5. Cash available for modest acquisitions or licences – like Egypt Spectrum etc etc
B. Restricted Access to Finance – Equity Raise ruled out by deliberately Low SP
1. Little available bank finance when Net Debt is €48bn, same with Bonds as gearing restrictions will hamper the SP
2. Any pure VODA Rights Issue ruled out due to deliberate low SP – no market appeal for general highly geared European Telecom’s
3. Poor historical Trading results – limited cash generation COVID & synergy benefits a way off
SOLUTION - €21BN Vantage Tower IPO
Issuing equity at a P|E ratio +20 to finance the main entity with a single digit PE post COVID and acquisition benefits is a masterstroke IMO DYOR, in one stroke removes the Access to finance limiting factor. Bridges the 2 year gap to substantially increased VODA earnings beautifully.
Shares can be issued in tranches after the IPO upto an outright sale. VODA with a Market Cap of €35bn, includes – at todays SP - the €21bn for Vantage, so one of the largest telecom’s provider in Europe is valued at €15bn but has access to potentially €21bn cash form equity finance of Vantage Towerrs, via a complete sale!!! i.e massively reduced funding limitations - more than satisfies its business capex commitments, until acquisition synergies can be earned, 5G revenue growth in a post COVID market and maybe Post Brexit, Jesus I sound like a mobile phone sales rep.
This game changing access to funding should re-rate the business eventually, the Market should not fear a pure VODA Rights Issue for many years , there is no need to suppress the Market CAp, the re-rate should not be deliberately restricting the SP. Only my opinion. With the US rotation into cyclicals and massive US money to hand from Tech, I can’t see many better VALUE stocks yielding 7% in the FTSE 100, despite competition risks etc etc. GLA IMO DYOR - it has to all happen yet.

Vaccine eruption highlights the favoured and we are noy so blessed - Be patient as the over exgg values on a couple of Monkees will fail when you have a 9 myh low & plenty of cash compared to other sectors - we are strong, can't understand BAE share - understand Biden less defense capex but but still TU 12th Nov HNY GLA Big trading oppos out there

Been in Voda a while and in and out of BT - VODA NAV £2 Ok 90p = Goodwill, potential divi Hope its 4p or is the market thinking it will be reduced hence the SP to 2p. Sector after BT results & Italian mast Co good - limited Covid impact = this was £1.13 when the FTSE 100 was 5850 ish - now pre ex div £1.048 at ame FTSE level , so we are at discount - strange - may open next week up Monday. FTSE climbed last week +250 but Voda only +2p ish Massive upside IMO DYOR As Sleepy Joe Biden says Patience - I'd rather have low risk 7% yield, especially after cash comes in from Vantage IPO GN GL HNY Than a barrow full of monkeys Donald.

Seen all the Shorts burn and a true rally, that' s the short term £2.50 SP !! - next 6 months will be the truth from a cashflow point of view , looking GE comments of engine servicing collapse 4 years out - enough of this short squeeze rally. If any question of Easyjet IAG tottering next TU - huge downside, post RI - GLA

Good to see reference to the H1 Accounts as a starting point for share appraisal and worthwhile SP valuation.
A few things (Very Key Parameters ) in your analysis have been omitted or are in correct.

1. The Accounts are in Euros, not Sterling
2. Capital Expenditure for 68 new airplanes € XX Billions 2020-2022
3. Countering the Cash Balance €6bn Euros is €4.6bn ticket sales in advance Current Liability or returned refunds Net Cash pre RI Sub €2bn
4. Fuel hedging loss crystallisation +€1bn and growing
5. Acquisition of Air Europa €600m – cash outflow
6. Cost of storing and dismantling 200 Jet Engines from the retired fleet
7. Bank Debt €16.8bn Banking covenants breach next 6 months?
8. End of Furlough scheme Oct 20
9. Gearing +400%
Good Luck. As I said before can't just look at cash in isolation when the Bank s hold the keys to the door.

When you just (only) look at IAG cash, you have to understand there is €16.4bn debt as at H1 and the €4.6bn cash really equates to the €4.5bn of advanced prepaid ticket sales, hence the need for the RI . Net assets were less than €1bn 30th June - the banks probably insisted on the RI to provide continued support - hence the current position. IAG will survive but has to have a plan to curb the debt repayment & interest costs. gla. As I said before I will wait before going long. Yes there will be a vaccine next 3-6 months., no doubt.

Rights Issue - Obsessive Conduct Disorder - BB today uncontrolled deliberate Bxxx - question is at £1.33 New IAG Mkt Cap £6.5bn, with 4.93bn shares in issue equates to Balance Sheet Net Assets were €785m - 30June less €1bn losses til today add €2.9bn cash injection = Mkt Cap £2.6bn = theoretically sub 70p a share so there's a lot to review over time - a vaccine will arrive next 6 months but business travel will be curtailed in the next 15 month general recession. GLA

Forget Vaccine influence, the end of the Furlough scheme - which could be extended for certain industries like travel - = net 8m unemployed on furlough - say 25% fail thats 3m painful sad stats , which no=one wants , peeps forget this is a financial and economic crisis and blustered through all data . GLA

Good luck all - last post, SP not an issue its all about the RI residual valve . Ref to which has been duly avoided. Man of my word, will pick up at a later date. Look I'm not a Charles and I wish no harm, no bachstaptrocous dealing. Be careful, look at Hammerson RI today , may not happen as IAG RI s fully underwritten, yes -SP will be solid when next week Astra will start trials - get it - no issue no de-ramp . IAG will survive and is TOO important for the UK to fail, what I add is a risk contrast to some of the utter XXX x - What I read is a rescue RI FFS, please be honest, casa & others are great BB peeps, balance, perspective, informative , no edge . HNY The Tail theory has to digest a 3 bn share whale. Good luck. GN

From the H1 Interims - Net equity = stake holders value = Shareholders' equity Poor copy exert from RNS check it out
Issued share capital 996 996
Share premium 5,327 5,327
Treasury shares (45) (60)
Other reserves (5,499) 560
Total shareholders' equity 779
Non-controlling interest 6 6
Total equity 785 m which is Net Assets with 1.990m shares in issue - 40p. forgetting any Goodwill premium. Thats the 30th June - now its nil, and peeps talk of £6/ share - crack on, IAG will get through this as UK needs a massive airline support structure but the rampers are getting a bit tad mega wind in him per se. HNY GLA. I'll wait my time.

Simples, obvious the MM's trying to Max the Sp to reduce the Volume of new shares for the RI raise, every +10p up 100m less new shares to issue , I think the US are wakening up to the New paradigm with 13m claiming benefits and the New monthly Jobs report tomorrow. Congress on recess and no new stimulus US deal - things could get tough. DYOR IMO - I look at the Balance Sheet Net Assets, Net Equity - £785m at 30th June - now gone at cash burn £150m per week and furlough ending Oct 20 with winter approaching . GLA

I do apologise for butting in - not posted here before - Have been watching airline stocks for a while, Easyjet Dart and I'm fascinated why the basic Balance Sheet New Assets positions are never discussed for all 3. H1 IAG Net Equity £785m with losses say £180m/week from 30th June 20 I'd say they were technically insolvent but have cash obviously, I'm thinking from an oppo licence and a business insurance point of view, too hot for me. The Retail guys in all 3 airlines love their stocks, must say. As a non wealthy Bean Counter of retirement age - my worry would be ... (Not a play - but don'y understand the quantification of risk!) Quote from IAG H1 report - 'However, if such funding were not secured against aircraft, the UK Government withdrew its CCFF programme or if the Rights Issue were not approved and executed as anticipated, the occurrence of a more severe downside scenario and the Group's ability to then obtain additional funding represents a material uncertainty at July 30, 2020 that could cast significant doubt upon the Group's ability to continue as a going concern. I don't need Coron or air corridors for me to be clear in my mind. GLA . All the best. - bank\supplier\lease support would be conditional upon a successful RI and that's just OK!???? ......

New CEO's comments wildly optimistic when the SP falls -12% HNY GLA - Hit this baby ..

Reviewing the accounts 2019 Inch had stock of £1.55bn , finance by stocking loans of £1.37bn , yet stocking loans, repayable normally 90days excluded form Net Debt disclosure. I think they will have to raise RI, Inch are in 16 countries (out of 33) that combined - generate less than 5% of revenue. Top 8 +80% - with the pandemic and air travel etc expand more locally, they are in Chile which is having its second wave. IMO DYOR, the cash reduction from Dec to May excluding COVID loan was £283m, June month world wide sales are down 25%, in INCH territories - took me all day - thats H1 sales down £1.6-1.7bn. Say £100m repay covid loan, say £100m to cover retracement of territories, redundancies closures before fiscal stims end worldwide, under new CEO, post COVID risk and £100m to support bank and stocking loan lending £1.4BN and acquisitions in major LOCAL markets - . I never understood expansion in marginal territories, Ethiopia?. Chile's backed up with COVID, when there is greater commercial risk and less reward. The current malaise will throw up opportunities for growth by acquisition, but that needs cash and bank support, when sales are down £1.6bn, IMO DYOR you need an equity injection, especially when INch Balance Sheet has many Intangile Assets - Right of Use, Goodwill, which will be written down. GLA GN.