Member Info for Banburyboy

Good move Marine.
The last six week turnaround was very pronounced.
No debt £5m profit most costs completely variable.
Worst case this year is £3-4m profit which puts it on a PE of circa of 3 or 4 with 4% divi

£3k at 50.3p.
Like this board and think this share has traction. Hoping there is a small chance of a trading update with the agm.

Lucre I have missed the £10m underwriting profit. That might be the bear case.

Anon as far as I can see the bear case is :
- Some significant hit to insurance as per value wises previous case. I'm not seeing it.
Carribean cruise was pulled after three days £10m refunded in quarter 2 disappointing but ..
- Tour / travel is burning cash.
Not getting it at all.
Just cruched my numbers which mirror the companies. On double cabins which deflates as singles sell better. We are 92% full July to Sept 22(would be 95% but late cancellation 25th Sept Baltic's now British Isles only 46% full but selling like hot cakes. Oct - Dec 22 68% full. Currently 82% for second half that's good.
2023 42% sold being 52% / 42% /44%/30% each quarter again steller.
Great price

So this share peaked at £4.30 after the AM update on 14th June 2021 (its now £1.90 but everything has improved)

The 14th June update included – 4 months and 31st May 2021 (full year Jan 22 figures in brackets)
• Motor / Home policy count – 2% behind (1% ahead)
• 80% retention( 82%)
• £74 margin (£75)
• 43% of all policies fixed (47%)
• Cruise load 77% 21/22 and 48% 22/23 (73% 22/23)
• Tours 60% of 21/22 revenue target and 27% of 22/23
• Cash burn £7-9m a month
• Total available cash £78m (31st Dec 2021 £151m)

Each of these will in my opinion be equalled or bettered.
I cannot see any prospect of serious bad news but I take your point Value wise I looked at ADM but thought it was Ok– this price is a steal for any newcomers.
This is being dragged down as a travel company but its more nuanced than that.

The results would have to be awful. Following last year's AGM and exactly a year ago we peaked at £4.40. The metrics from last years AGM trading update are not a high bar and we should crush them.
This is being dragged down by market sentiment and being considered a travel company.
It's 80% insurance. Cruises are doing well and Tour probably as long haul escaping the worst of cancellations.

Brought 2500 more at £1.88 we are now 12.5p old money and approaching rights.
Company is in far better shape than 18 months ago

Sum it fell to 130 from what I can see on the charts 8-9p.
This could be history repeating itself.
A steal

In Sept 21 the interims were annouced on the same day as the capital raise.
At 31st July 20 cash was £131m of which £102m was customers and restricted.. So £29m meant we needed RDH.
31st Jan 22 we had £256m cash of which £69m was restricted so £ 187m free.
So increase in cash in 18 months is £158m. Ship repayments were £30m before they were suspended. So £188m generated.
This included £140m net rights issue and £80m from 2026 subordinated debt for corporate purposes. So during shut down we burnt £32m over 18 months.
This is in the rear view and the company is in far better shape. AGM update should have far higher cash and lower debt as Cruise and Tour are both trading. £1.90 is a bargain

Sum over
Not sure you have that right. Consolidation was 15 to one so 11p is £1.65 in new money . We are currently languishing at 13p old money. The rights issue if I recollect wax 12p

If this goes below £1.90 I will kitchen sink it for a quick trade. I'm expecting a minimum of £2.30 on update and potentially £2.50.
So 21% to 30% on a quick trade.
Been confident before but this insane can't believe this price its 80% insurance and cruise is from everything we know above water (excuse the pun)

Poker oil not material - per their presentation
10% increase / decrease in oil + or - £1m . Also new ships very efficient
Contrast with key sensitivities
Capacity 1% plus or minus = + or - £1m.
Per diem per passenger £1 higher or lower price = 300k plus or minus.
Oil not the biggest deal for the Saga
What is a big deal is tonnage tax its peanuts 90k or so a ship but all profits free of corporation tax.

On 23rd June almost a year ago this was £4.56.
The catalyst was a 14th June 2021 trading update. I really recommend posters reread that.
For virtually every metric I think 2022 will be better.
There is an element of the market dragging this down coupled with no news.
On an objective assessment of last year's price and update and what we can expect on 5th July - £1.95 is insane.

Sorry Bilzo the question was to you not 808

808 - great question and I had long put that down as the single biggest risk to my shareholding here. I honestly don't know how it works.
From what I can see cruise is doing well and should easily cover the £50m of debt repayments due for next five years (including covid deferall of £10m each year for next five)
- Insurance is a cash cow and any issues re new FCA rules are marginal
- Tour up and running and mainly long haul so less hit by flight cancellations. Will still make losses but easily subsumed by insurance.
I'm hopeful the 5th July AGM update will be better than most and expect in particular
- First half to July a profit .
- Reduced debt and increased cash
- Insurance stable
- Cruise set to meet all targets
- Tour ???? They claimed no furlough money so in theory any sales will cut loss so comparative should be easy to beat.
This share will have better days and I hope they start on 5th July (shame its not the 4th !!)
Real risk is the rug is pulled and we don't get to benefit as RDH takes it private.
A poster on here Dofuswinchmore is convinced that's the plan. What I don't get is what's the pretext to make that happen and what if anything we can do. Anyone any ideas or parallels ?

Early May Barrett reiterate guidance.
Mid May VTY increase guidance.
14th June Crest increase guidance
Lots going on but not playing out in housing market. If I can make some money on my oilers and POO stays high will be investing in builders.

You will I hope to well Nomad - brought my 900 at £21.40 but got £1.10 divi. Still got a 10% loss but really feel good on this for all the reasons sighted. House builders move together so any good updates from the others will help. To be honest none of them have issued anything negative.

Nomad - I remember too. Brough TW at 4p and sold at 6.5p been on a losing run since. What a mug
Difference is
- Base rate was 5% back then - now 1.25%
- Banks had no capital buffers they are now huge.
- LTVs were up to 120% now far lower.
- Bank checks pretty good re affordability.
- 80% of customers looked in or protected short term at least from variable rate movements
Completely different times and compelling case to invest particularly with high inflation and low rates for those in cash.
Can see a case for waiting for drop but post update this will fly IMO

PSN has no debt and £750m of free cash flow from which to pay the £2.25 dividend. What's the risks ?
- Demand for new builds drys up. Pretty remote given under supply.
- Margins are squeezed as sales price go up by less than costs. Probably pretty likely but IMO no more than a 15% drop in cashflow. That equates to a 35p off the divi and is priced in.
I think anybody buying at this price won't go wrong. The companies largely fully variable cost base ( contractors ) means it can retrench / hunker down and wait for any storm to pass. I can't see a storm just a few headwinds
At this price very high reward and very limited risk.

Hi Lucre
Value you posts as you know but my questions would be
- how can they update analists but not Shareholders ? i thought that type of information should be released publically
- on 140m shares that's a decline in earnings from £67m to £45m
- Does it indicate a half year or full year ?
- For a full year doesnt feel right for a half year i would take it
Many thanks BB