Member Info for Banburyboy

Boulevadier - a tricky question.
85% capacity at £275 per passenger gets us £170m revenue and an EBITDA of £40m per ship. (company presentation)
Based on that EBITDA would be nil at 45% occupancy - so one break even point but one that crash the SP.
A very different question is around cash flow the 85% capacity results in zero cash flow . This is because Saga is paying for the ships over 10 years rather than the life of the ships which is 25 years . So the £40m is eaten up by £25m - £30m capital repayment (different for each ship and includes £5m per ship deferred by pandemic) and £8m financing interest per ship.
Cash generated through Insurance is huge and as a standalone business its worth £6 a share. It's more or less covered travel and cruise being closed. In my eyes we need to be at or close to the 85% (cash flow break even on cruise) for a recovery to kick in.
Hope this helps

Beach I have joined you.
Another 2000 shares today sold out of CNE, i think this has more possibility for a significant gain.
Like you more hope than expectation
Banbury

Jed you do fire from the hip every so oftern.
Factually you are wrong on Admin deed is still to be signed as others have said.
Outcome wise you are probably right nothing fir SH.
These distinctions are important to those that have been on here a long time
And no I'm not cluching at straws just fascinated by how this will play out.

To be fair Rave that's why most of us are here to share views and opinions .
As a story this one has had more twists and turns than anything I've seen and is mega interesting.

Pre suspension of 1.75p represents £5m. Not huge and an offer bringing shareholders into play at 1.75 would secure deal.
Not convinced at all that will happen but its a logical reference point.

I've been saying for weeks there was no way Morrisons would let this go into Amin as it meant having to bid for the conversions and 50% of Morrisons wholesale is McCols.
Like others I thought Friday I called it wrong.
My view is Morrisons will push the board for a debt for equity swap which will wipe out shareholders.
Don't think Issa will come in with a counter.
Still think I've been wiped out but feels a better outcome for the employees and pension fund.

The mistake I made was thinking sale of bank debt to hedge funds required disclosure.
Surely the company must have been notified and had they disclosed the price would not have spiked.
No doubt all lenders sold a small tranche say 10% of debt to hedge fund at 30% discount. Banks take a small haircut hedge funds take quick 30% profit and the blame.
The FCA need to make it a formal requirement of disclosure of any hedge fund acquisition in debt bonds and loans of traded companies. It would protect shareholders.

Mail Neil and Nate nice posts.
I lost a small amount circa £700. I was utterly convinced Morrisons could not less go into admin. Complete misread my me and apologies if I inadvertently convinced anyone to invest.
Lesson learnt for me.

News
Your posting is very prolific and appears like almost an information link to lots of other sources. Do you mind me asking is the posting part of your role in a paid job. I've been on LSE a longtime and not come across this type of posting

What's fact from the RNS is the banks want there money. Any offer would need to guarantee that as a minimum.
Not sure how Morrisons will cope with 400 of there shops moving to Asda. They have a lot of skin in the game.
Not ramping as probably nothing for shareholders but how it pans out will be fascinating.

Banker how many more times.
Admin means Morrisons have to bid on shop by shop basis for all conversions. They will likely lose many and their wholesale division has 50% of its business through McColls. Administration won't happen

Black or red banker !! Think you might be eating humble pie. Granted it could be a low offer price at 12.34 1.8p but then game on.
I'm not a novice seen and felt admin loads of time this is not quite the same.

Neil I've explained it in all my posts. Latest being shareholder approval
For a guy with 20 years experience in this I would for one be gratefull if you could offer some more incisive insight on why I'm wrong .

This will bounce around between 1.5 and 2p until definitive news.
Probably about right - we have a rumour Morrisons would take the whole company. At the moment that's only a rumour . It's got debts of £170m.
That gives us a true insight into the value of the business. Others could see similer value or more
Beauty here is 5p a share only adds £14m less than 10% to the price Morrisons pay.
Reverse logic but in any scenario but admin Share holders have a few aces. Interesting as Morrisons can't risk admin.
Not sure I would buy as a newcomer but as a holder all is definitely not lost and looking up if rumour confirmed.

Any deal with Morrisons requires approval.
Unless there is some undeclared Morrisons proxy we won't vote for a nil share deal. One or two p maybe that's £5m and buttons.
Morrisons will pay this rather than risking the conversions being auctioned and the 50% of trade from Morrisons wholesale that goes through Mccols.
How much shareholders get is debatable but they won't let it go to admin.

2p to sell on H/L they dragged it down to 1.3 to trigger stop losses.
Lots of advice on here last night to sell why you could. Everything here coming together what I increasing believe is admin risk is remote. Morrisons won't risk an auction of their conversions.
Shareholders will get something as company has value. Question no one really knows is what value.
Before any one else posts or quotes little or no value. This was 30p months ago and £1 plus two years ago. So little value is 10p from a Board who want a deal with Morrisons.

Bridgedog where have you appeared from with your insight ?
Debt is as stated by news companies. The accouts are prepared under IAS16 and include lease liabilities not debt as have an equal and opposite asset.
Morrisons don't want admin that won't happen. Watch carefully :)

Mick difficult to engage with sensible posters as rampers moving in
Key here is Morrisons don't want admin as it means they have to have a competition for best shops.
Morrisons prepared to take the lot and £170m debt. Clearly its enterprise value is higher.
Low market cap means as you say 5p in buttons.
Key risk is Board they have a preffered outcome imo which is Morrisons at the lowest price.

Mick don't know you average but might be worth a small top slice. I got out at 3.5p on last spike after buying in at 1p.

Rodget a bit of luck in calling well.
What is a game changer if its true is Morrisons taking company as a whole with all its debt and issues. That's amazing.
That gives a completely different view on enterprise value. £170m debt EBITD is £20m. So PE of just 8.5 ! Without debt interest and poor shops it will be £40m profit and PE of four.
Love a Morrisons bid as its game on for others to join in. Every £10m increase in offer is 5p on the share price.
I know we have a way to go but not impossible.