Member Info for Banburyboy

Thanks Rupans.
I feel a prize prat - how could I have missed that.
I'm going to blame scrolling but it's a lame excuse
Where Saga are concerned I can see no wrong and the blinkers are fully attached.

Will post later in the week but cruise bookings looking fine .
As a flavour
- my main worry Baltic cancelations replaced by Britain September and Norway October are flying
- Quarter 1 Jan - March 23 - 51% full.
Hopefully steady update at AGM and mention of return to profitibility should boost the SP.
To any newbie at £2 this is a buy 13.3p old money. Filed my boots at £2.10 see what happens
Dont you get tht deja vouz feeling !
RM - Le Mans sounds very good £5 party next year !!!

Hi Poker.
No specific reference to Saga which is good.
Apart from the Lloyd's example which was racketeering all the rest seemed processess struggling to adopt to fiendishly difficult regulation.
The policy intent is good but the fact that common sense says every customer is different means its difficult to implement and tougher to monitor and enforce.
The basic premess is if my renewal is £200. They cannot give me a price less than £200 if I apply as a new customer. Oftern they do but its my milage in the comparison site may be lower / higher than my existing policy. That's not a failing.
One aspect of this is companies will be very carefull in soliciting new business especially from existing customers via on comparison Web sites.
Sagas retention rate is +80% very high for the industry July will tell but I'm not expecting any fireworks on insurance.

Not holding at moment.
Early for a train and spent 6 minutes just now counting customers 33 went in. HSamuals next door had none. Looks promising for holders

Sat on a small loss of 4 -5 % from buying in after windfall tax.
Quite enjoy hearing insights on company from posters that have read the accounts or news and have an informed view.
Unfortunately a lot of postings are neither use nor ornament. Or as my dad won have said not worth the steam off my p**s.
From what I can glean HBR is undervalued and I'm hopeful of a pretty solid return.

SoHs
Some really good questions. ! Wish I had a crystal ball.
Completely agree on great opportunities elsewhere. My view is you could trade up to agm as in the five years I've been around this is not leaky. It does move fast and the fear is would you want out before the agm update.
Underpinning my research is the cash position is strong and the company can service its debts and won't go bust.
From what I can see.
Insurance is profitable and not expecting much asverse impact from new rules as retention rates are 80% + so we are not dependent on new business churn.
Ocean Cruise - bookings look good but worried about a hit from the Caribbean covid cancellation and reschedule of Baltic cruise.
River - anecdotal evidence on here sounds OK
Tour - just don't know. As we are predominatly long haul I am hopeful cancellations won't hit us.
On balance hoping update will indicate insurance stable. Strong bookings and finally a return to profitability.
I'm holding not adding for now.
£100m PBT and similer free cash flow should be a breeze for this company and with cap.of £280m feels undervalued.

SoHs
Some really good questions. ! Wish I had a crystal ball.
Completely agree on great opportunities elsewhere. My view is you could trade up to agm as in the five years I've been around this is not leaky. It does move fast and the fear is would you want out before the agm update.
Underpinning my research is the cash position is strong and the company can service its debts and won't go bust.
From what I can see.
Insurance is profitable and not expecting much impact from new rules as retention rates are 80% + so we are not dependent on new business churn.
Ocean Cruise - bookings look good but worried about a hit from the Caribbean covid cancellation and reschedule of Baltic cruise.
River - anecdotal evidence on here sounds OK
Tour - just don't know. As we are long haul I am hopeful cancellations won't hit us.
On balance hoping update will indicate insurance stable. Strong bookings and finally a return to profitability.
I'm holding not adding for now

Twigglet sounds promising. I'm pretty upbeat on ocean cruise. Only worry is lost income from covid Carribean return and bookings on late changes to Baltic cruise because of Ukraine.
LTI - I sold about 30% on the way down and have kitchen sinked at £2.10 a month ago.
Not as bullish as I was but expecting a reasonable update and would like to think £3 might be possible under normal circumstances by September. Sorry if that's the kiss of death !!

Grumpus - I agree with you on the BOD.
They had there arm twisted on special div which became a tender offer.
The market and many anayists are unconvinced bt TLW. I think they have just run out of ideas.
I do think self interest is there main driving factor. All their dealings before and after tender offer.
Anyone know what the benefit to them of the merger is. Good governance suggests they are conflicted and should set out clearly what the benefit of the merger is to them.
Not sure we do good governance at CNE

Good to see you Alnwick. Post made me smile !!

Rupans I came into some cash and have invested in the following PSN , HAR SQZ (both oilers) and TND ( bikes) . Four to avoid given my track record. Will continue my love affair with Saga though.

Yes Rupans I had thought about lowering the bar.
I wonder where Millionaire and I think it was Alnwick are now. They were completely sold on £12 - £15. Wonder if they have downgraded:) I thought £8 was nailed on 18 months back. I'm not even sure now on £4. I do think a positive update on cruise and neutral on travel ( cancellations are short haul ) will boost the SP but I don't have the confidence I used to !

Might be a while Sprights I had touted lowering it to £5 so we live long enough !!

Sprights - ever two months or so I remind you the Company is too disperate to be taken over in its entirety. Best you can hope for is either a bid for all of insurance or just the underwriting arm. Pretty unlikely and we all need to cross fingers and toes for the agm update

Pushing £2.30 well done those who held £2.298 to sell

Tman
CNE at a premium to 3.8 at 56p. ( currently 3p so 59p)
Still think CNE will attract counter offer.
TLW needs good news to cement our love affair IMO

If AB actually leaves DRC with any money then it will buck the trend of the last ten years.
The phrase is hope rather than expectation.
Agree this could be undervalued but just no faith in AB.
Hope I'm wrong for those invested

Higher now than the wonderfully tender offer !
Still think a counter bid is in the offer. Waldorf could do worse do buy us to cancel our share of their production. As we are mostly cash at £2.50 it would save them a fortune.

Risk Investor logic suggests if the market thinks the deal will go ahead the SPs of TLW and CNE will mirror each other.
With TLW down and CNE up 3% each. It seems to indicate the deals not in the bag. The deal is unduly favourable to TLW.

As a CNE holder very unhappy with TLW terms.
Holding short term for a better offer and it's certainly pushing on today.