Member Info for Banburyboy

Thanks Horse
Great to see you back. Did you actually got me onto this analysis sometime ago and its addictive. I'm thinking of taking legal action !!.
Reassuringly you get 79% and i get 80% .
I feel incredibly sad even pointing this out - the sort of guy you dont want down the pub !! The difference is probably i weight the analysis for the longer cruises rather than a single average - but great verification.
To all my Saga mates whose up for York station beers next time we hit £4 !!
I know the old target was £6 but we are getting no younger and this is the ultimate slow burner !!
Promise i wont bring the calculator and spread sheets. More likely to sue if you get me too drunk !

Building on last post and at 29th May

• Just based on twin cabins but as singles sell better this is conservative.
• 43 cruises – 308k of twin days across the year (444 twin cabins per ship)
• 84k booked – occupancy 27% as of April 11th
• 120k booked 39% on 29th May.
• Per quarter occupancy 46%/ 39%/42%/28%
• 12% moved in 6 to 7 weeks

Remember the target is 59% by September interims (now 39%) which was described as very good at September 21. 55% plus should be fine

Cruises doing best
• 26th September New England – 61% booked April up to 75% May
• 29th June Greenland / Iceland = 50% booked April up to 64% May
• 4th Sept Cities of Mediterranean = 44% booked April up to 59% May
• 28th July Iceland = 43%April 68% May.
• 26th May British Isles 39% April 67% May
• 31st March ancient cities of western med 39% April 57% May
• 14th June Classic Italy 39% April 52% May

Nothing else over 50%

Norway cruises really lagging and for obvious reasons the Baltics

South America explorer 12 Jan 2023 is 78 days!! It’s just shy of 9% of capacity for the year on a fleet of two. How this cruise performs is crucial and including singles it was 34% full on 9th April 11th. At 29th May it was 42% full. This one worries me as it has been heavily advertised and we only have six months to fill it. Think they need to think long and hard about these very long cruises.

Overall conclusion cruise on its way barring some extreme event to hitting its targets and remember per diems are also significantly ahead.

On insurance has a look at Direct line – the new regulation seems to hit policy income for those providers who offer a substantial amount of new business. With Saga having an 82% retention rate which must be the highest in the business you would only expect this to grow as new deals on the wider market get less. Conclusion Saga is impacted less.
Granted claims inflation will be a problem as for all insurers but not feeling the regulatory change will hit Saga hard.
Banbury

Thanks Elmore
Unless the North Sea is different tax relief for most companies and individuals is normally at the marginal rate of tax.
The idea of 90% tax relief as you spend it sounds too good to be true and must encourage some really marginal decisions and disfunctional activity. I am in DELT and there drills are estimated as a 50:50 chance of success this completely de-risks it for Shell, Capricorn and Delt - but like you no tax expert. Good if anyone knows for sure and could advise

I think the company for a shareholder is win win
1- based on doing nothing earnings even accepting 65% tax are in my opinion warrant a much higher SP
2 - we fill our boots with investing in the NS knowing we get 65% or 90% back dependent on who is right you or I . Stick our £400m war chest in and we get either £360m or £260m dependent on who is right

Brought £10k's worth average 2.66 and pretty hopefull

I have put in anther 5k at £2.10 which I think is the bottom.

Main issue for rest of the year (2022) is the cancelation of Baltic cruises
• 22nd June now Scandinavian cities
• 25th September now British Isles
• 4th October now Fjords.

2023 has 4 Baltic cruises first on 21st May and they are still standing for now.

Including single cabins, the 4 months June – September is 89% capacity, BUT this now includes the two new cruises on 22June and 25th September which are 75% and 29% full. If they are excluded capacity is 95% which is excellent

October to December is 68% full and I am a bit concerned October is very slow (average of 45% in the three Atlantic cruises). I know they open doubles up to singles closer to the time and that may move October on.

Overall, 7 months June – December occupancy is 80% despite Baltic setbacks and no more sailings anywhere near Ukraine.

I must conclude the 85% target is well in sight and anything above 85% will be used to offset the disastrous Caribbean cruise we cancelled earlier in the year for the covid outbreak.

Slow progress but getting there. I’m hopeful of a small profit on cruise and a break-even cash flow. Which considering it has a £51m repayment of debt is not to be sniffed at.

2023 to follow in the next few days

Strange one this guys I put my £20k ISA in this at 21.40. Optistically I'm hoping for 50% with dividends in three years.
Could well be a recession but will be mild. Central banks don't raise rates as much as they used to, most mortgages are fixed or tracked so inbuilt protection, banks have less exposure to high LTVs and huge buffers. Supply of homes limited and demand high. My money is on very gentle levels of GDP decline and no shocks. Biggest risk is Ukraine getting out of control and China's strange covid policies. Solve those and economys would road back.

Naive
That's broadly how I see it but prefer numbers.
So next year we have PBT of £200m. 65% tax = £130m. Retain £70m.
We invest £100m in exploration. 90% is allowable = £90m.
Tax calculation is now £200m less £90m allowable = £110m at 65% = £71.5m tax instead of £130m.
The tax reduction vs the £100m investment is £58.5m 58.5%still good but restricted by both the 90% and the marginal rate of tax of 65%.
Key is previously you had to wait until the asset produced or failed. Here the allowance is as you spend it. So HMT are carrying 58.5% of the risk and the company 41.5%.

Hi all brought £5k yesterday at £2.71 as thought the fall was over cooked. Will buy more sub £2.50.
My thoughts
Cash in bank at 31st Dec 2021 £218m
Second half cash flow from Opps less dividend and capital investment £94m. This was based on 25.5kbopd and average Brent £75. ( first figure accurate second rough.
Using £94m cash flow as a base for the five months of 2022 (all escapes windfall tax you have £78m
- add 2kBopd volume increase at $80 = £24m
- add price impact oil now $100 not $75 at 25.5bopd = £97m.
Cash from opps assuming similer cap investment in five months is an eye watering $199m.
Two points make this attractive
- £417m in bank over 50% of cap
- at worst with Brent at $100 we should be able to repeat the half two performance of £94m which was based on $75.
Really think this is underpriced

Back to your question on AGM !! Strange

Thanks Morbox - I can see no prospect of this going bust. £200m plus of cash.
If cruise and travel can break even on cash flow that is cover £60m on repayments on ships (Inc £10m of deferals for five years) . That's good.
Insurance will bring in circa £120m a year which pays the residual 2024 bond as planned.
In.two years time £150m profit co and £200m less debt.
Think this is long play but hanging my hat on it won't go belly up. Insurance and loyal customers will keep it afloat.

Good question Morbox - hopefully nothing sinister . Can't see anything to worry auditors
Travel Goodwill is nil and Insurance is well covered by current trading.
Think valuations of cruise ships may have dropped but any hit is non cash and it comfortably cleared the tests in 2021.
A mystery like Sagas Sp.
Brought another £6ks worth replacing what I sold at higher SPs so holding faith !!

Hi Whitechat the deal for Kraken / Catcher pivots on production and sales so a fixed decling percentage of 40/30/20/10 on sales above $52.
Also suspect Waldorf might escape as neither a major nor UK listed.
I might be wrong but my semi informed guess is windfall has no impact for us.

Put £1,500 in at 2.35.
With a number of high chance drills and the current oil and gas this feels like it has a high possibility of multi bagging.

Teversham if a strong £ is helpful. Why do Brexit? Single biggest currency shock since Denis Healey.
The reality is all major economies have inflation 7-9% its ridiculous to say you the BoE or any single policy maker could have anything other than a small incremetal impact.
The requirement is we don't pour fuel on the fire of recession with interest rates and act in unison with the G20. Its known as the global economy.

With a one dimensional comment like that SUFC I'm glad your posting on boards like this and not involved in setting monetary policy.
An incredibly fine balancing act.
80% of the rise is supply so interest rates have no impact.
The 20% that is controllable is around labour market. Unfortunately Mr Baileys hands are tied on that to a degree as more vacancies than job seekers. Dare I say it Brexit has not helped that little bit of wriggle room as most occupations are UK out of scope for foreign nationals.
Consensus view amongst all the great brains is 1 -2% at most.
5% behind the curve you would steer the ship directly onto the rocks whilst drunk at the wheel.

Ls - at $100 oil and assuming 10% decline in Kraken Catcher production on 2021cCNE NS oil earn is $142m. So quite good.
If windfall tax mirrors banks and builders (cladding) it only hits the real big companies.
UK government won't want to stiffle small cap investment so I'm hoping we might escape.

Whale thanks for the update did it mention cash ?
Figures seem to be your £80m
Financing interest £16m
Original loan repayment £45m
Deferal £51m over 5 years £10m
Cash headroom £9m.
With sensitivities of £1m per 1% per ship. It begins to leak cash below 80% capacity
I would be delighted with Travel / cruise / River breaking even in cash terms.

Sorry I didn't answer your question.
Company numbers 85% & £ 275 at 365 days for two ships - revenue is £170m
£40m EBIT&D per ship is £80m both ships.
Assuming all costs are fixed they would be £170m less £80m = £90m.
Capacity needed to cover £90m is 45%.
It's all completely academic and previous post covers cash which is King.

Boul - you are assuming staffing is fixed for some roles captain / engineer etc yes but for a lot they will flex with capacity.
The point you are missing is the difference between an accounting profit and cash flow.
Two things to note
(1) the £40m excludes interest and depreciation take those two out and its a £20m accounting profit (PBT)per ship at 85% capacity.
(2) that £20m is not cash that's added to our bank . Because depreciation is charged over 25 years and we repay the ships over 10 years its all eaten up by accelerated repayments. So add back depreciation deduct loan repayments and cash contribution is nil at 85% capacity and £275 per diem.
Ten years down the line and we are in clover no repayments or interest !!
Most investors are interested in cash more than accouting profit and rightly so.
All the £170m revenues cash are eaten up. Anything above 85% and £275 goes straight to bottom line for both- cash and accounts
The company said each 1% on capacity is £1m per ship and each £1 on per diems above £275 is 300k per ship.
A word of warning all figures are the companies but from late 2019 so take the per deims with some caution.
On the plus side the cash cost of debt is fixed so the heavy inflation we are experiencing could be really helpful.
In short long term sufferers on Saga need Cruise / Travel to break even so we can use the cash cow that is insurance to pay down the bonds and return the company to pay dividends.

Building on last months post and at 9th May

• Just based on twin cabins but as singles sell better this is conservative.
• 43 cruises – 308k of twin days across the year (444 twin cabins per ship)
• 84.5k booked – occupancy 27% as of April 11th
• 117k booked 37% on 9th May. I think that’s quite good
• Per quarter occupancy 42%/ 35%/38%/33%

Remember the target is 59% by September interims (now 37%) which was described as very good at September 21 interims

Cruises doing best
• 26th September New England – 61% booked April up to 73% May = standout
• 29th June Greenland / Iceland = 50% booked April up to 61% May
• 4th Sept Cities of Mediterranean = 44% booked April up to 57% May
• 28th July Iceland = 43%April 61% May.
• 26th May British Isles 39% April 57% May
• 4th Nov Canaries – strange one. These are normally slow but has gone to 60% booked. Treating this with caution.

Nothing else over 50%

Norway cruises really lagging and for obvious reasons the Baltics

South America explorer 12 Jan 2023 is 78 days!! It’s just shy of 9% of capacity for the year on a fleet of two. How this cruise performs is crucial and including singles it was 34% full on 9th April 11th. At 9th May it was 40% full. This one worries me as it has been heavily advertised and we only have seven months to fill it.

Overall conclusion cruise well on its way barring some extreme event to hitting its targets and remember per diems are also significantly ahead.

Early look at 2023 cruise

• Just based on twin cabins but as singles sell better this is conservative.
• 43 cruises – 308k of twin days across the year (444 twin cabins per ship)
• 84.5k booked – occupancy 27% as at April 11th
• Per quarter occupancy 32%/ 26%/30%/21%

Cruises doing best
26th September New England – 61% booked = standout
29th June Greenland / Iceland = 50% booked
4th Sept Cities of Mediterranean = 44% booked
28th July Iceland = 43%
None of the other above 40%

Of the 43 cruises 4 are 14 days to Baltics and one 22 to Eastern med – a long term horizon but limited exposure to today’s trouble spots.

What to look for as we inch towards interims in late September

South America explorer 12 Jan 2023 is 78 days!! Its just shy of 9% of capacity for the year on a fleet of two. How this cruise performs is crucial and including singles its 34% full

• 2019 interims (pre pandemic) they suggested they were over 50% of their target. Target is 85% so I think they were 43%
• 2021 interims 59% capacity sold.

Target for me is 59% late September if we can get there, I think the omens are good. My plan is to update monthly to keep bulletin board members aware.