Member Info for Banburyboy

Long suffering holders have had so many false dawns with this share. For me i cant see any excuses reasons for next Wednesday's update being poor.
- We know ocean cruises from 1st Feb to 30th June were ahead of the 85% capacity needed and ticket prices to break even. The only bad news was the cancelation re covid which were a months revenue for one ship. This is £10m and could wipe out profit but it should broadly break even
- Relooked at 1st July - 30th September . Its at 93% full with a cancelled Baltic cruise on 25th September (now British Isles) acting as a lag. Thats selling like hot cakes 127 cabins in 21 days and should move us to 95% plus
- River cruises are less risk but anicdotal evidence on this board says they are doing well.
- Tour should wash its face and perhaps report a small loss but the burn should have worked through.
- Insurance ? Some really pesamistic posts on here. It made £120m PBT last year. There could be a drop but i dont see it falling below £100m based on what peers are reporting and that to me below £100m would be poor.

In short on the basis of the evidence Saga should be generating sufficient cash on cruise to service repayments and £10m of deferals per annum . Tour should be improving and whilst insurance may be under pressure it should deliver substantial surplus cash to go towards repaying the 2024 and 2026 bonds.
I know this has been said many times but this is a pivatol point as most of the serious issues are behind us.
A week to go !!
Good luck holders.

Dddd - I and most others on here like Roxburys posts. He does his research, he's enthusiastic quite witty and certainly isn't encouraging any one to buy who does not want to
Your posting history by contrast is in the main fairly nasty with not much of substance.
I know who I would rather have a beer in the pub with and it's not eight d man.

Yes i believe because it's credited as income and forms part of taxable profit.
Hanging onto cash with inflation at 10% and returns at 4% if we lucky taxed at 65% makes no sense. They need to consider
- one off capital return or much higher dividends
- acquisitions
- investments which qualify for 90% releif.
In this type of environment you would operate with minimal cash and use debt facilities as inflation erodes the value of any cash balances not put to work.

ZC
£250m was raised and is due 2026
- £100M was paid off the 2024 debenture. £150m is due 2024.
- £70m off term loan
- £80m added to cash.
The plan is to pay £150m in 2024 from remaining cash which should be relatively easy.
No dividends here for five years or until the deferred ship debt is paid off. That must as a drag as the share is capital and future growth only.

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Hi - brought a big chunk for me at £3.80.
Fundamentals look great and I was comfortable.
I get this is an FT 100 company and not AIM but is the rather opaque arrangements around EIG 32% holding idendified by neversellshell a risk to shareholders. Could they take us out for a song ?
I am sure posters on here have been round this before but what's the risks ?

NewKOTB
Many thanks for taking the timevto to post information and links - really appreciated.

NewKOTB
Many thanks for taking the timevto to post information and links - really appreciated.

Fred. They have had over a year to buy and its been low for two months.
We get a TU not results on 5th July. Don't know if this is classed as closed
I'm not sure it's anything sinister just a limited level of empathy from high paid individuals to their long suffering bosses the shareholders.
I can't see any excuses not to buy and moraly they should.

Guys I'm a new shareholder. Can you explain the relevance of the US/ Iran thing and connection to SQZ ? Many thanks

Bonds trading at 83p in the £. Not distressed but reflects rising interest rares and some company risk from the share price fall.
Would be nice to see some directors share buys. They must be well under water on their incentives plan with price at rights issue levels

Magic
The £250m was used £100m paying 2024 bond, £70m term loan and £80m corporate.
They had £200m plus in the bank in Jan 22 should be more now and next liability is £150m of bond in 2024. They were confident of paying this off. No need for a rights issue.

Rox - I hope you got out of DDDD.
I follow your posts and did look at it.
Some pretty negative posts in my favourite space (Saga) and £1.88 does feel cheap if you need a quick "gamble" next week. 12.5p old money and fundamentals much better.
AGM trading update is 5th July.
Currently holding CARD and like everyone but SIMES think it will do well.

Agreed Horse there seems to be a feeling that insurance will be a stinker.
If that's true they might need to impair the £900m of goodwill on the balance sheet. Which is pain upon paid.
Retail makes £70m PBT key metric is margins which have been circa £74 a policy. TU normally have margin information.
Underwriting contributes £50m and reserve releases may be less than previous years.
None of that is catastrophic but the SP seems to be factoring it in. So it's either
1 - the doom mongers on here are bang on and something awful is round the corner.
2 - General market sentiment, very tiny volumes and a perception we are a travel company is driving an incredibly subdued SP.
I've been wrong before on this company but really think on all the evidence the TU will be steady and will boost the SP. A week Tuesday will reveal all

Guys some intelligent and thoughtful posts on here today
Slightly drunk and down the allotment sheltering from the rain.
- We made £120m pbt on insurance last year if this fell to £80m it would be catastrophic. It would be so out of kilter to other insurance companies. I don't think its even possible.
- Cash wise we added cash last year as insurance is lucrative and covered £7-9m cash burn on travel . Granted ship payments were suspended and that's now £55m a year but that will be covered by 70% cruise occupancy. We know it far exceeds that. So we should add cash last guidance was enough to pay £150m subordinated debt in 2024.
Granted the TU might disappoint but talk of a rights issue based on fundamentals and what we know does not resonate with me

Eusebius- I think your post is spot on . Its reasonable to assume costs rise 10-15 which would as you say dent profits badly if not passed on.
I'm assuming they will raise prices to and allready being the cheapest should not hit sales too much.
I know the price index is stratified into lots of small parts I shall have a look if greetings cards is one which should give some idea.

Magic good summary the company is fine.
I do worry about being brought on the cheap.
RDH paid an average of £2.71 for his £100m stake so if there is value as many of us think we would expect a low ball offer of £3 plus.
I really don't think it would come to that but you never know

Anon the retail insurance part as you say is safe. Margins are £74 a policy and one to look out for. This contributes circa £70m roughly a year.
The dispute is underwriting where we carry the risk. Its traditionally bolstered by reserve releases where previous year estimates on claims have been too high. A debate around the sustainability of this seems to being had .

Boule and zcxx - you have articulated the point better than me.
Insurance might be subdued but it's not down and out.
Travel is the risk and theirs a faint chance it might hold its head above water in H1 2023

Dianto - welcome to the Saga Board.
My judgement is the price drag is negativity in the market generally not Saga. Volumes are pitifull no one buying or selling The trading update will confirm and it will be too late then this is a steal.
If valuewise is correct re underwriting profit being £10m then a rights issue may be required. I see it as unconceivable compared to all its insurance peers. It would also involve reconsidering the carrying value of goodwill and a whole tranche of non cash write downs. It simply won't happen . In the interest of balance I don't subscribe to the £12-£15 valuation of others £5 is realistic. All will be revealed 5th July. What's interesting is the recent questioning of insurance which at £120m pbt is a cash cow. Will it reduce probably how much ? To £100m share price fall not justified. Fill your boots

Underwriting made £54m last year. Reserve releases were £42m of that and claims £8m less than the pre covid comparitor.
Something that says underwriting will make only £12m PBTwould be a serious bear case.
If true we all have this pretty wrong and £1.80 will be a fair share price.
I get inflation and suppressed claims re covid but such a dramatic decline £40m plus 30% of total premiums I'm not getting at all.
I've been wrong on this share before but if that's not a bear case I need to find a new interest.