Member Info for Banburyboy

Having invested in and watched this share for twelve years I think I would conclude :
AB would clasp at any straw to present good news.
He may have become more considered as you can only rose tint so many times.
The form book favours nothing concrete im afraid.
But for holders hope I'm wrong

Guys new holder and delighted.
Don't understand much of the detail but the above poster called this out on a number of posts last week. Well done KOTB top BB award from me.

Old guy those Gleeson results are really good - amazed they have not been marked up more.
They prove the bottom end of the market is and continues to be more recession proofed than most. PSN operate in the bottom space.

Triumph think you are wrong on the fundamentals.
- H2 forward sales locked in at 10% higher than previous comparative.
- that 10% is higher than cost inflation.
- issue is supply side in particular planning permission.
- guided profit higher and company distributes all cash so £2.25 safe for FY2022.
- Also read yesterday's post re Morgan Stanley.
- Interest rates won't rise much and houses still affordable visa vie rent. Many more people now locked in lower rate fixes
- PSN operates at lower end of market with sales price 40% lower than other builders the place to be.
I brought in too early but IMO this is a steal and those waiting for your suggested bottom will miss the boat

Equil I think the rns was not bad at all.
75% of book forward sold at 12% higher sales price than 2021 really jumps out.
As does fact we are al lower end of market 250k where demand will be good.
BoE rates would need to hit 3.5% plus before I would get worried and I can't see it.

Forward look
"The average selling price of private new homes forward sold to owner occupiers was £280,700. 12% ahead of the prior year..
The first half was £267,300 ( 2021 £258,220).
So foward sales locked in at 12%.
Sounds excellent to me.

On June 6th 2021.
Is the outlook or that update really that bad.
Supply side issues on builds but margins and prices excellent.
Yield now nearly 14% yes div might fall but even a 20% fall and it yields 10%.
Anyone buying and holding for three years will IMO double their investment.

I honestly don't understand why that has led to a 5% fall

Wisco - my read is similer.
The positives were profit slightly higher than guided and house prices keeping rise with costs.
The jewel in the Crown for me is PSN operate at the bottom end and prices are 40% lower than peers. They remain affordable and hugely better value than renting. Stuck 10k in yesterday and hoping for a 5% bounce.

Detail in the accounts
£400m bonds £150m in 2024 and £250m 2026
£500m ships - estmate
(£200m) cash
£700m
But ships are asset backed

They have £200m of cash and cruise is now self funded repayments over 10 years.
The TU says they will pay 2024 debt from available cash.
If they have a problem it's 2026 when £250m is due. It would be a stretch to pay that from insurance profits so may need a role over.
Definitely no scope for dividends
As Magic says inflation is no bad thing for indebted companies as it erodes the value of the principle.

Share account - Eva is chair of the remuneration committee so her 79% mirrors that of the vote for overall remuneration. Don't think it's her per se but the job she does.

Possibly Alnwick but the days of £12 -£15 which I was very critical on two years back are now unfortunately a pipe dream.
Did anyone else find the Euan speel tedious boring, long winded , and wordy. Didn't do it for me.
I will have to hang on here and confident we won't go bust but I would bail at £3.50.
Long term change of sentiment from me I have gone from fearing De Hann taking us private to wanting it.
His £100m was brought at an average of £2.78 including rights and he brought £60m worth at 27p = £4.05. Split the difference = £3.50.
Who knows that might be the plan all along

Bat - Let's hope he backs it up with some Director buys.
The story here is as is insurance doing OK.
Cruise and Tour a waiting game and a highly cautious update.

Troughs - pretty old and probably out of date
Interestingly it says now Rishi has almost certainly ruled out a windfall tax !!! How times change .
Like this company though

Martin - I think we are going to have to persist with this one as i'm too much underwater to do otherwise.

At the interims last year they made £69m on insurance and £127m at the finals. They have indicated reserve releases are similer and margins the same. So we can lop off say £7m for new business reductions . Insurance = £120m

Depreciation is a given at £32m (importantly non cash) as is financing at circa £50m . This leaves £38m being the mid point in guidance.
Looks like they are being really cautious on Tour and travel quite rightly and have this as breakeven before depreciation and interest. This is seriously pessamistic on cruise and i think they will guide up late September. It would be foolish not to wait and see on Travel
Like you I'm Ok with the update in horrific markets.

Market slowly digesting these - £1.72 to sell.
The guidance will be cautious as they have been wrong too many times before. Execting an upgrade at next TU.
Good buying in price. Hopefully the bottom

Jed my first read is quite good and would be suprised if the SP fell - for me that is worth 15-20% +

Positives
Margin £73 - excellent
Retention - 83% excellent
Underwriting - high releases - very good
Profit - £35-50M - way ahead of covernants
Holidays - small loss - improvement
Cruise booking excellent but they have included Jan 24 which defaltes
Worries
New business decline is steep but margin maintaince important
Possible impairment but dont think likely.
Most worrying £60 margin in 2024 which is a fair bit.

Overall - pleased with this and think the recovery begins today

Hooky pragmatic and proportionate by Keir.
CBI fed him the fatberg of red tape line. It's spot on irony is there is more to come and we were told the EU was too burocratic !!
No wish to rejoin just have a more proportionate and pragmatic trading regime for UK business and we won't get it with Boris. Some other Tories yes BJ no.

Boris doesn't like the border in the Irish sea which he told all the Turkeys was an oven ready deal to secure Brexit.
Rees Mogg has deferred for the third time import checks originally delayed because of covid. The cat came out of the bag when he said it would save business £1.5bn a year to compensate for the cost of living. There you have it more red tape not less
No key workers at airports farms hospitality
What a dogs dinner on the economic front.
In the interest of balance not being in the EU helped on vacines and Ukraine.
What annoys me is the die hard Brexiteers who have no sense of balance and proportionality.
My business and most of the people I know have been screwed by Brexit it's just frustrating to hear the unbalanced rubbish from BOTH sides Brexiteers and Remainers.