Member Info for Banburyboy

Kurt - I would just be very careful.
Panda is right on DRC payment will probably be through courts eschew account rather than direct. Big risk its a black hole. Hope I'm wrong.
As Darion says AB has a duty to SHs to keep notifications formal. Looks like an engineered spike off the back of a transaction that is still uncertain.
AB must get one right sometime hope for you guys this is the one.

To be fair Noel is right nothing in this.
They spent £1m cash 6 months to 31st Dec 21 and £2.8m six months to 30th June.
Little detail but £1.2m was investment in intangibles that have been capitalised. Would be good to know what on.
Would also like to know current cash position.
Management have been diengenuos on previous fund raise and I'm not convinced we won't see a sneaky rights issue.
I'm a holder and happy with risk but some posters on here need more balance. DELT is a long way from a gold bar.

The situation here reminds me of McColls.
Price crashed £2.20 to 1p.
Brief rally to 4p.
End game was lenders wanted repaying and preferred a haircut to keeping the company afloat and the ongoing loan risk.
Not sure of the specifics here. Feel for existing holders but new enterents be very careful.

Just passed $100.
Nearly two thirds through quarter three with elevated prices.
Should be another good day tommorrow and then the big one on results !

Thanks Baysil and Sekford. Complicated as you say but that's a fair "slug" of usable losses so agreed effective tax rate should be low. The exception is the new WT which you can't set historic losses against but can new Cap ex.
Some on here are pushing to divest from NS in protest still think the better strategy is to invest up to level of WT as 90% is allowable. Complicated but HBR has loads of options and we will find out more Thursday !! 425 as you say Wow

Thanks Sekforde - I did overlook that. If the effective rate of tax is nil due to BF losses (on legacy 40%). Does anyone know what's BF in unutilised tax losses ?.

Laid back big fan of HBR but 65% broadly of FCF of $3.7bn will be paid in tax.
WF tax may not be due until 2023 but they will need to make provision.
I won't be populatr but the use of the word Conservative whilst ignoring 65% relative tax rates is paradoxical.
HBR is without doubt undervalued so good luck all. But if that was the free cash flow it would have a target of £20 not £6.

Thanks NewKOTB.
Didn't know where Ratley was but have googled. Family neck of the woods. Our family pub is now the Falcon - used to be Wobbly Wheel at Warmington. Birthdays Christmas top food but not cheap.
Met a geordie Lass 20 years ago so in Victory in South gosforth.
Keep up the great work

Thanks NewKOTB - fingers crossed SQZ rises more

NewKOTB out of interest (in pub so can't see RNS ) what would KIST offer now be worth at £6.22 which they are now ? Feels like more than £4.25 as we are now and potential

No worries LL - just trying to bring temperature down. I got into this one by chance after WT at £2.80 not often I back a winner. Some excellent posters on here re company knowledge ( I'm not one). Also in HBR got in sametime re WT but they just fell and fell. 5% up there 60% on this. Strange as they are impacted by same issues.

Lucky and crawshaw - you two married ? Man and wife by any chance ?
You remind me of me and the mrs

London and Baysil
Thanks for your reply really helpfull.
- you are correct on divy my mistake.
- Baysil won't the WT need to be accrued / provided irrespective of when it's paid.
- On Tolmont is the rampi up in guidance so 215k in Q1 - 195 - 210 for rest of year so nil impact unless guidance in update is revised which would be superb.
London lots of variables and yes my analysis was pretty crude. You could be right on phasing of hedges. On gas price correct to but elevation is mainly q3.
Looking at responses I'm realising how important production is. Any revision upwards particularly on gas would be huge. 10% more gas at todays price would all avoid the hedge would be 10bopd &$250 = $2.5m a day. Interesting.

I've got a large holding for me here - but am more cautious than others re Thursday. Main issues
1 - Free cash flow impacted by five weeks of WT, $200 divi and some buy backs. Compared to Q1.
2 - cap ex guided as $1.3bn. $160m in Qi. This means assuming average through three quarters of $380. Extra $220 on top of Q1.
3. 54% oil 46% gas.Q1 produced 215k per day likely to fall. But hedges null price impact.
4. Oil unhedged Q1 price received $103. Hedged $84. Q2 will be marginally lower with lower production. So lower revenue.
5. Gas unhedged revenue $160 hedged $66. This shows the sheer quantity of hedges yet to work through. With guided priduction reduction overall revenue could be static
Think the company has huge potential but on my simplistic logic I can't see debt going down by the same it did at q1 despite some eye watering analysis on here.
Hopefully this won't spook the market and is factored in. Welcome views on what I'm not getting / factoring in / misunderstanding.

Blazing - some information on interest rates. You mix up inflation and interest rates.
1. 10% inflation and 5% interest rates mean a real interest rate of minus 5%. Mortgage rate increases have less of an impact on households provided they are around wages growth levels.
2. Real House prices will fall in that for a while they have outstripped inflation by nearly 10% per annum . Not unreasonable that the growth falls to 3%. That's a real terms fall of 7%.
What does that mean for PSN.
- profits squeeze as housebuild inflation is 10% and house prices 3%. Margins fall from 28% to 22%. Profit by 25% - that's allready priced in.
- no impact for a year as 90% of the book is forward sold.
- there's chronic under supply of housing. Central government policy andvbanks will protect against evictions only as a last resort. That will constrain supply
- PSN at bottom end of market and benefits from those who I agree can't afford a 350k mortgage lowering there sights to a 200k mortgage
- inflation is transitory two thirds is energy related and $100 Brent and 400p a therm is baked in. If that doubles which won't happen yes inflation will be up another 10% in Aug 23. It won't and we will be back to 5%.

The maco economic picture is some real pain over a short period but for a softish landing.
Against that backdrop PSN and all builders are a steal at this price.
PSN could cut divi to nil this year leaving a £1bn chest to fight a deep recession or the landing is soft and we have a reduced divi 25% or so for a year before normal service is resumed.
Completey happy here

Never 4.12 please but love higher

Loan notes are a win win for the recipient. 12% interest on do nothing or covert at 0.6p with an option for further buy ins at 0.8p.
As a fund raise like all RRR activities it dilutes existing holder. Was stupidly thinking of a small dabble but the terms of the note are unreasonable to existing holders and seem to suggest the company has very limited options in the money market. Not for me

Archy is the 15 ratio adjusted for Marley - they made £8m in two months (£48m on an annual basis).
Ratio must have fallen massively as share price has halved and Marley been acquired.

Stanley I had a good look at £4.20 yesterday evening. Logged on 8.30 and bagged 1000 shares at £3.82. Pretty pleased albeit sold some PSN at a 10% loss so I'm no expert

Paul your a ray of sunshine Ivestec halfing dividend ( other analysts think it will be held) now terminally decling margins due to land bank.
Margins are a factor of the cost of land when acquired so probably a three year + lag.
PSN hold similer stocks to others and spend £400m this half year - double the comparative.
None of the builders sight this as a concern.
Main concerns are common to all builders
- materials inflation - PSN well placed as own supply chain
- house prices - PSN protected to a degree as bottom of market. In particular rising rents rather than interest determine decion to buy on first time buyers.
- planning permission particularly on environmental issues. Common to all.
You seem to not be keen on PSN but have come up with no company specific information to support that view.
This is a great price and if the 2023 dividend halves I will buy Paul Curtis a pint. No one really know but Rupert Hargreaves has it being maintained.
Great price to get in but also like other builders