Member Info for Banburyboy

Presumably 91% of drill spend is fully allowed against future profits. In theory the £20m cash should give rise to an £18m deffered tax asset.
Just needs a producer to offset this against. Seems to be an attractive acquisition for say a SQZ or HBR as they get £20m cash orca £18m tax asset either even if its all dusters.
Really comfortable this will do well but thought fun raise was sharp practices. I seriously fear another fund raise for mates and am praying for a take over where our share of the pie is maintained.

Manfor - you are the robot poster. Same posts on numerous house builders.
Feels more like a gut instinct rather than any detailed research.
Lots of reasons why HBs will roar out of this and completely different to 2010. Banking governance has been completely reformed, almost full employment, higher equity, lower rates and a system that will only reprocess as a last resort. Rents very higher and a PSN house is still.cheaper than renting even at 5% interest. Gleeson opposite in same demographic as us and yesterday's update was sales flying in the period to mid September. Great entry price

Equil is right this is a steal at £14.40.
I'm not sure he is right on divy annoucement - both Divies paid this year were announced on 2 March 2022.
If this years is similer we have a six month wait

Sorry guys very new and digesting key facts thanks to others.
Strike do we know why Blair Thomas sells ? Is he distressed elsewhere or is it just guess guesswork on his motives.
Seems inconceivable to me there is actually a skeleton with a company that's going into the FtSE100 and has such a firm and completely verifiable revenue scheme.
Like Solder I have never seen anything this cheap and want to explore the old motto around if it's too good to be true it is. Really welcome thoughts on institutional / corporate governance risks not the fundamentals and sensitivity analysis which they are full open about.

Solder
I completely agree.
You are well read on this one - as I said I am new. The only nagging doubt I have is the legacy holdings of some of the major shareholders. Quite a few individuals with disclosable interests seem to be selling which makes no sense based on the fundamentals. I don't know the history but wondered what you / others thought.

Fair point Soder and Vlad thanks for the heads up.
For what it's worth Solder I agree with you on the buybacks.

Brainspark - that has been rumbling since 2014.
If any of that had any realistic value AB would be shouting from the rooftops by now and sold the interest at a knock down to fund " general expenses".

Soder - great post and I retract the element of my post that says Managment made some poor decisions. I'm a very new investor to this company.
The rest of my post re equity and share holder value being inversely related is key to understanding HBRs accounts

Thanks Vlad (poor choice of name !)
Linking into previous post on equity does anyone know
- what proportion of gas production is hedged
- what proportion of revenue is gas and what is oil.
I would like to have a stab at quantifying milking it

It's described at Note 14. Because commodity derivatives are now £7bn and included as liabilities it means we have a negative balance sheet.
Nothing to worry about in one sense and just a transparency exercise.
If the price of oil and gas doublef today the balance sheet would have $20bn of commodity liabilities.
Yes arguably management made some poor decisions but it doesn't alter the rather perverse and machivellian conclusion that the higher that liability is and the more the balance sheet is underwater the better for us as SHs and the SP.
Accountancy is strange.

Zumore maybe RRR are the lovers !
Andrews probably working on a fund raise from high wealth individuals with eye watering interest rates and zillions of warrants to fund inducements.
Patience is definitely needed for long suffering shareholders. Soon Rodney soon.

Thanks Beza - I of course meant a higher buy in price.
Yes this one's off the radar very few trades

Beza - only you and i here.
This one looks safe but a real slow burner.
I like
- net assets up by 300k in period
- excluding intangibles net assets £18.5m well above market cap
- sales in six months £2.15m a month. July and August £2.55m per month probably seasonal.
Nothing spectacular but safe - problem is my buy in price 50% lower and dont know whether to stick or twist

Dick - the good news I think is the company will do well. Mates all loading up 10p offer in six months. We will have no choice on the offer.
Pleased in some ways as my 2.34 buy in looks good. Disappointed as my share of any multi bag has been surreptitiously reduced.

Just cut PSN from £34 to £17 !!!!
How they came up with £34 god only knows !!!.
The rationale for the cut 2023 pressure on margins !! We can all agree that.
Specifically house prices flat 0% growth - agreed as reasonable.
Cost build inflation 5% - agreed as reasonable.
What they IMO fail to follow through on is margins are now in the mid 20% so this brings them down to around 20% !
Company currently making £1 bn in 2023 would make £800m. Dividend gets cut quite rightly but still an eye watering 10% plus yield.
Don't disagree with their conclusion on margins but to me it validates a £2]0 - £24 sp range. I think other brokers will push here . Fall overdone

Snopp dog - I've been banging on and using the term mates rates placing for two months. Swindells did thus when they were Cluff and he's done it again just as i said he would
The potential net asset value has just taken a dint - pretty p***d off to be honest.

Radav - the trading update accompanying the interims was sparkling. I'm toying with getting in before Thursday

42.9p a share risked valuation - sounds great but surprised me only 5.9p was ascribed to Pensicola which I though had a 70% COS. Thought that figure would be a lot higher. What am I missing ?

Bluke for 25 years up to mid August 2021 UK gas never exceeded $100 a therm. It seemed to broadly average $50 ! Is that normal. ?
My gut is normal relates to inflation.
Oil at $90 a barrel will be nil in the inflation calc by Jan 23 as the comparison period is one year earlier when prices were $90.
Gas will add to inflation until Oct 23 but the price cap and significantly the £400 will limit this a fair bit. With a cap for two years the impact will be nil from year 2.
Government is clearly using supply boosts to create a new gascnormal.
Although we have WT and price cap I think a great time to be holding a NS gas share.
I hate to say it and would love it to happen but the biggest risk to a few profitable years is Russia collapsing and a pro West regime turning the taps on. I have a minor " hedge" on EVR if that happens but it would crash quite a few NS oil SPs

DrB
Looking at Ithacas presentation the realised price of oil was $108 and gas $153. Using total revenue to work backwards that makes the 67k per day 30% gas and 70% oil.
I understand SQZ is 90% gas.
Flexing the results for the higher gas mix adds 22% on to of the pure pro rata so
1.45bn @ (26/67) = $560 add 22% for far higher gas mix = $680.
The read across is excellent and that's without the hugely high gas price in quarter 3.
Really looking forward to the results