Member Info for Banburyboy

Checkin - great post and you have clearly been on the sidelines but taking a close interest.
I take heart from the far the ships were impairment tested at the debt value. That means cash less two bonds means circa £200m of debt. Is insurance worth £200m plus yes. As such current market value IMO is supported by underlying assets.
Where I disagree is your point on £100m of asset sales. What are the assets ? Is it Titan ? They wrote the goodwill on travel down to nil 18 months ago. I know you can't re-instate goodwill but in this market with its profitability I've allways said they would struggle to give it away. If they did I think it would be beneficial. Have you any other assets in mind ?. Not holding at the moment but watching closely.

Hard up. Liz wants to grow the pie so we all have more. Commendable but skeptics are not sure on the pie growing theory and believe the rich will be richer so bigger pie less crumbs.
Her problem is the majority of voters are happy with a smaller pie current levels of tax and better public services. With of course balanced budgets.
In that respect giving nurses a large (funded) pay award paid by not going ahead with tax cuts would be morally right, appeal to voters. and work at pace unlike "trickle down'.
Politics is all about pragmatism - she's made an awful start and given herself no room for manoeuvre. MPs rightly will vote down her excesses until she does the right thing and goes. My only worry is she does not have the limpet like tendencies of BJ as that would be torturous.

Helpful really sorry but if AB could get $1m for Migori it would have been sold moons ago. I'm afraid you valuation is well OTT.
AB is desperate and unfortunately the cupboard is bare.

Skier - Rees Mogg would take you out of fire into the frying pan. He' s from the age of Disraeli and Gladstone. Truss trys on empathy JRM has none and wears it proudly.
So I told the board a week ago 45% would go. I said yesterday morning OBR will be published October not November.
I can exclusively report today that Tory moderates and pragmatists are now in full control. Tax cuts will be blocked as will spending cuts .
Liz will have her agenda sunk and fall on her sword. Emergency change to leadership rules precluding members. Moderate voted in and with 80 majority and UK likely to fly out of recession next year bets are back on for next election. Simples politics is all about pragmatism Boris got that but his character was too flawed to see it through plenty of others can do this.

Let's move on.
Next domino to fall will be OBR. Forecast brought forward from November to October publication.
In the interests of balance the rest is defendable including bankers bonuses provided they have a credible plan to cut expenditure.
Failure to address OBR date will means the optics won't be on what it should be the policies themselves.
She is wrong to say optics don't matter as Boris / Kier / May will tell her they are all that matters. In denying Optics don't matter she is an outlier with Corbyn. Unfortunately she is really wet behind the ears.

Gate - told you a week ago. Politics is easy should never have put herself in this position in the first place so let's not have damned if she does damned if she doesn't nonsense please.
Next u turn will be OBR end of October not November. Its not rocket science and she has messed up. Should have conceded that one at the same time as 45% but too experienced and naive.
To quote Gate - you lost move on !!

KK " he gets it and has listened"
Most Tory zealots on here say you lost on Brexit and LT get over it.
Whilst it's not cut and dried the fat lady is singing.

Hard up- I have posted on here for a week it was never in doubt. So much for the lady not for turning less Margaret Thatcher more Micky Mouse.
Next u turn will be bringing forward OBR.
LT - no political nose

A blind deaf and dumb individual could have foeseen 45% tax announcement would be withdrawn.
Looks like half the Tories are now agreeing.
Next mistake to be corrected is OBR moved for November to October.
If I was LT I would kill them both off at once by backtracking. Its still an uphill battle but she's corrected her two beginners mistake. As I said walking back 45% never in doubt - only issue is around does she volunteer or is she forced to.

Longterm
We both know abolition of 45% rate will happen. The lady will turn. This is the here and now I'm afraid not ten years ago so don't be spending your windfall !!
Weird as for all his dishonesty Boris got politics and did a u turns frequently. Liz may have the persona of a plank but from what I can see she is honest - but not an ounce of pragmatism.
Boris personality and pragmatism with Lizs honesty and Tories could do well.
I do think it would have been an uphill battle but Boris had a much better chance of winning the next election than Truss. I'm afraid your done for.

Hard up
Had she used the OBR and costed it and avoided the horror of the 45% tax abolition - she could have claimed world events as mitigation. Even she is admitting that. She did not . Political naivety. The 45% tax goes she can limp on. It does not she's finished. Sadly power means to much to her and she's setting the scene for KK to take a fall and reversing 45%. She will limp on until the next crisis.

Walker - stupidly the 100 or so con mps who will vote against 45% will lose whip. That means general election. They will back down on the whip and the 45%.
I've voted Tory as well as Lib Dem and Labour and am pretty objective. Much of the country and 70% of those who benefit want it reversed ! Gate and other will still defend this ###tshow. Gate please don't say the 70% can give the tax back that's not how the system works you well know it.

The far end - the sore loser argument might wash with Brexit.
The reality is this wooden uncharimatitic, not so intelligent swivel head has sunk the Tories. No going back I.m afraid. She won't make six months but will hang out KK on 45% whilst clinging on.
As I said on here whatever the rights and wrongs of the budget she is now conceding she could have laid the ground better. The diehards (soon to be sore losers) can't even concede a single inch on that. Down with the ship is the motto

Stagecoach tellingly Liz said 45% tax cut was KKs idea.
No chance of clearing parliament and will be withdrawn.
Lining up a fall guy :)

Interesting another poster said the CFO was arrogant and seemed to have an attitude of why am I here !! Still think the end game is private - wheres Dofuswinchmore ? He's extremely well informed and two years ago just after the rights issue and consolidation he was convinced private was the plan. Hope for holders if correct its a decent offer.

Drb83 - I use the same platform as you trading economics. I'm sure it's next day.
I look most days for months now and never seen it 50% up . 25% yes but 50% no. Shakey I can't read your site is next day up ?

RH - based on loading up as you posted at 1.56 ! 1.35 and 1.07 for 200k of shares and then selling at 1.07 and 1.02. And buying at a low of 90p.
I am assuming you are 40k down on Saga in the last week and 1k up on your latest transaction. That's a sort of Kuassi Kwatang approach to financial transparency (half the story )and optimism but each to his own
39k Ouch!
Agree no one should follow my advice though :)

Spec Invester - from an objective perspective Long Term like you invested a lot here over a much earlier period.
His post yesterday was really balanced and polite.
The nub is the structure of notes and need of RRR for cash means you are unlikely to ever see 0.6p again and most likely 0.5p will be tough. Some could make money by selling into a rise but timing would have to be exquisite and I'm not even sure momentum is there to support anything other than a minimal rise.
You clearly see something here just like long term I and many others also did but the evidence suggests from the loan note structure you will walk away unfortunately down.

Thanks Rox - not a bad tactic.
For me the base case is it can service debt so no bankruptcy risk.
What I've opened my eyes to is PBT might now be a normalised £30 - £40m.
With debt perceived a risk the normalised SP is at current levels cica £1 PE of say 4 ish. Reasonable as no dividends
How wrong I have called this share ! Not sure where Millionaire is now days him and his city mates had it at £24 next year.
Success for me was getting in pre results at £1.37 and out on the spike at £1.17. Only saving grace was the housbuilder I sold went down more and I put it all in SQZ at £3.48.
All my eggs are now in HBR and particularly SQZ and up a fair bit on both.
Plan is to hold over winter and unti a spike and then come back in on distressed housebuilders.
What can possibly go wrong :)

RH - I still see value here but a lot has changed
- Insurance struggling a write down of 30% means future income will be 30% lower
- I was shocked that despite cruise bookings in H1 being 66% and increasing to 84% in H2 . They were only predicting a profit in H2 of £6- £16m.
- Clearly large pipeline costs in H2 and Travel not turning a corner anytime soon.
So wheres the value ?
- £5 party long gone - probably £2 but two years plus
- A serious long haul if they do no more than deliver in March 23 on £20 - £35m profit . So SP in 90 -110 band until August 23 when interims for next year might surprise.
- only reason for sticking short term for me is RDH taking it private. I think he could go to £1.70.
I see no material gain in next 10 months unless a suprise take out. On balance I'm more comfortable out and will look in again in summer 2023.
I do wish everyone on here well and hope it comes good for you. Banbury