Member Info for Banburyboy

Soder - I find your posts really knowledgeable but don't get your point on oil plateaux.
I had assumed ( please tell me if I'm wrong) that drilling to maintain a life of a feild was 93% tax deductible.
The general concensus is WT actually encourages sub optimal drilling as the releif is so great it almost completely eliminates financial risk. A different issue.
I also believe for post May 22 UK costs the first offset is the windfall tax. Logic would suggest an equal and opposite (aside from the marginal 7% of expenditure no covered) trade off between cap ex and WT. Yes its not ideal but I think a great opportunity for plateaux expenditure and incremental gains to shareholders

Senseman - new to HUR and seeing value in The sale from current SP.
Thanks for a hugely informative post which I need to reflect and re - read a couple of times.
Your post of 17.22 has 24 reccomendactions which must be close to a record. I would urge anyone that can to add to the 24 ? Firstly as I I'm dead interested in how many peeps read these boards and secondly that post deserves it.

Seaford agree on tax losses.
HUR were offered £160m last week. They have cash of £100m , producing reserves and £370m of tax losses.
The value that offer put on the losses is negligible as there are fundamental issues on transferability to a new enterprise.
The basic rule is ENQ losses can only be used on production that company (enq) produced and they are not eligible for WT.

Upomega with the greatest of respect you are wrong re a duster and are mixing up two mutually exclusive business outcomes.
Outcome 1 North Eigg drill is either a duster or proves commercial Irrespective of that 91% of costs are recoverable duster or commercial . We would surely want it to be a success. The saying a bird in the hand !!
Outcome 2 - do we develop N Eigg if its commercial or just mothball it. If current UK tax position is unfriendly we would mothball it. There will allways be another day.
If its a duster the SP will also crash.
Careful what you wish for but there is no benefit whatsoever from a duster

Simplistic read across but HBR in q3 got 209p a therm for gas (unhedged)
Likely SQZ will get similer in Q3 so 209p.
The unhedged price SQZ got in the interims was 175p.
So Q3 revenue on constant production = +20%. I think a large number of hedges have ended in Q3 so have a 30% increase in revenue.
More or less enough to cover WT with some spare - so expecting Q3 free cash flow to exceed HI on a pro rata basis.
Good share even despite WT and on confirmation rate is unchanged should fly.

On the face of it good results but Rookie is right net debt unchanged $1.1bn at 30th June and $1.1bn at 30th Sept.
Be good to understand timings presumably buy backs divi capital exp tax all high in Q3.
If they are nothing to worry about

Seav - I think the post is pretty clear cut.
At the prevailing rates of oil and gas in the interims. A deffered tax asset of £1.6bn will be available to offset against the EPL.
They are paying £300m in respect of 2022 net of any offset of the deffered tax asset so the inference is £600m a year increasing as hedges unwind.

Laid back that was a bit uncalled for.
If you read the posts on here early this morning the loss on hedges is allowable to offset against the WT.
So low hedges are not all bad.

Saev - that is my understanding also.
At a strategic level it does seem to make hedging more attractive .
1. If you call it right - all well and good
2. Calling wrong gets a mega tax advantage. Some of our lower hedges must attract no tax as they are so low compared to market price.

Net assets £4.67 per share.
If any builder is insulated by a downturn it's GLE - operates at very bottom of market as people trade down and no debt.
Loads of bargains in current market but looking carefully at this

Results are really good.
On provisioning remember it is only that an estimated hit rather than an actual. No evidence yet of house prices crashing yes they will grow at 0% but they need to crash before a provision moves to a write off.
If house price do no worse than flat line just like PPI these provisions will be credited back to profit.
It's also a better look to over provide in respect of windfall taxes.
Very pleased

Nice rally into close any ideas why ?

Flabby completely right the golden rule is you can't backdate tax so that is 100% nailed on.
I don't see any prospect of an increase in the rate rather possibly extending the sunset clause past 2025.
Personally I think they might look at the profits of UK listed oilers derived from non north sea. Provided this is not caught by double taxation ( I.e if BP pays 30% on Mexico production they cant be taxed again so if Uk tax is 45% they pay 15%) they can do it.
I see this being very fair and actually contributing to the wider policy objective of incentivising domestic production. If confirmed SQZ should fly up :)

Oil - I'm a new investor and at face value this looks a solid investment backed up by broker targets.
I am allways interested in the evidence based downside case .
I have looked at your posts and you said you predicted £2.50 when you realised in April 30% of the shares would go.
Sorry if it's been done to death previously but could you provide a brief summery of the issue and risks re share holdings. What happens to 30% of the shares and whyb ? And it it April 23 or did it happen in April 22 ? . Many thanks - Banbury.

Lookilo - there are little or no benefits from Brexit that I am aware of. I previously tried t engage the board on this one and gave the only two benefits I've heard of -
- much more flexible response to vacine take up roll out
- much more flexible Ukraine response.
No one on here could list anything else so I put it down to ill-informed rhetoric.
Let's see what OBR make of brexit supply side reforms - very little. The only thing OBR are clear on is european migration is a key driver to UK growth that's why Truss pushed Bravaman. Even die hard like Truss know Brexits more huff and puff to keep the ill-informedon class of 2016 on side rather than anything of substance.

Whatever the rights and wrongs I suspect if the members pick Boris against the advice of MPs there will be an election. To many MPs would abstain in a confidence vote.
There will be frenzied activity " teaming and lading" votes from Richi to Penny to keep him out. If he gets more than 115 it's game over.
Think Richi is the best qualified candidate but Penny may be the best for healing cracks. Starmer will have an early Xmas if it Boris and the Turkey shoot (oven ready of course !!) will start early.

Sorry if this question is stupid. It feels stupid. But.. with Next day price being 35p and futures 200p. Would it not be sensible to lock in future production at 200p ?
Seems obvious given realised price in H1 was 175p and profits excellent.
Lots of debates on here on buy back but not hedges.
Why would we not ? Interested in others views

Sekforde - I had the same observation I think laidback is using the payment due date as opposed to the period it is charged. Which is sort of cheating. Also seems to ignore 40% base tax rate. Not sure what losses are available. Think the company will do well but would need convining on the tax treatment all 65% on laidbacks calcs

Fair points Gate we won't agree but you made your point clearly.
I still don't understand why the fact that 20 days in the cost of the energy cap is nil and way below the 300p per therm that trigger a cost to HMT is not in the news. Its fundamental to the public finances and thevneed for Lloyd's wt etc. We might find out more at Halloween.

Gate I've told you many times I'm not left wing and have voted conservative.
To me there are many on the right whose post sensibly and with evidence.
You are unique you can't defend any argument are ill informed and respond in generalities.
You know I'm not left wing so why do it.
Get a grip :)