Member Info for Banburyboy

Info is a performance update confirmed ? Or was that speculation on your part ? Thanks BB

Shot up to 282p on Apollo finance

Yll fair point.
I may of missed it but is there any reason why HMG did not raise the existing corporation tax of 40% tax to 50% and instead chose the EPL ?
I thought the 40% was on world wide profits would ensure the big boys paid there fair share and not discentivise north sea. ?
Seems fairer and even more politically acceptable approach- was wondering why it was off the Table ?

Steve concur with your numbers. Would add hedging losses are allowable to. So if the whole book is hedged at the now price say $80. Realised price is $100. $20 is allowable to offset WT.
Seems a win win to hedge as much as you can

Anyone know why the government favoured a North Sea only tax ( EPL) over an increase to the corporation tax and supplementary (40%) ?
The latter is I believe total world wide profits and would capture BP and Shell a lot more and probably raise as much as EPL increasing to 50%.
Seems a fairer way of implementing policy intent of a windfall tax (hit the big guys) without disencentivising NS ?
Not seen this covered anywhere.

Thehickster
Sorry but I think you are wrong JH is a serious and pretty sensible politician who single handedly saved his party from the abyss.
He's got a lot on his plate and the detail of EPL is way down.
The fact his colleagues are taking up the mantel is excellent news. Particularly if the point out a cap as prices fall is fiscally neutral as government support costs to consumers fall.
JH is pretty pragmatic and proportionate and this is a quick win in the party unity space.
Unfortunately labour won't vote with rebels but still promising.

Agreed Fairdealer
There's quite clearly value here based on BoDs and Major Shareholdef actions.
It's a self fulfilling prophecy a significant number of PIs are looking for the escape hatch on good drill news which will make any "control" move easier for Board.
It's a long shot and recent fiddled share issue makes it more difficult but saviour may be third party Shell / CNE etc making a cheeky bid. At least small fry get a decent share.

The RNS was more of a dotting the i' s and t's than anything of substance.
The only take away if how small the boards combined holdings are an absolute contrast to there heavily inflated salaries.
The fact they have so little skin in the game anmd are so well paid should worry shareholders.
This company has form [twice] on diluting at terms preferable to major shareholders.
A successfull drill unfortunately won't be just a cause for celebration but a clamour of private investors looking for the optimal escape price before the major investors with their boards blessing rearrange the shareholding so more of the pie is with them.
There's an opportunity here but not convinced the board bat for ALL shareholders just some.

Thanks flexmw - really appreciate the information.

Thanks KKTOB and Sasa.
I have heard a lot about BKR but not sure I get it right ?
Is it BP ? Did they keep 50% of revenue previously? What proportion / how much of our 30k BOPD did that arrangement cover.
Many thanks for any help with this.

Mini gas sales are at day ahead price. This has been very subdued in late October early November.
Today it's 140p the highest for six weeks.
I would love us to hedge the kitchen sink at your 296p futures price but it's not happening.
Your November estimates need deflating as BOTH oil and gas are below assumed levels in the presentation in Q4 to date.
No axe to grind and think share is undervalued but your post is a tad rose tinted.

Started using Zenergi prices which are linked to the Apollo sight below
https://www.apolloenergy.co.uk/news/current-uk-energy-prices
Everything up today
Day ahead 120p
Year ahead 310p
Front quarter 368p
Front month 320p
If we could lock into anything like those final three prices by hedging it would more than componsate for EPL.
The realised price in the interims was 136p taxed at 40% = 82p for us
320p taxed at 75% = 80p for us.
Pretty grim i agree as we need price to go up by 250% to stand still - but surely you would lock in an eye watering profit by hedging as much as we can over 300p.
Banbury

Thanks. My innocuous follow up post was removed to and just checking I'm not banned.

Nice post Ltd Axis.
Measured and polite.
Unfortunately looking at Noel posts he is involved in loads of petty disputes on other boards where he feels he's being slighted.
I will calibrate my diagnosis from can cause a fight in an empty room to an empty telephone box. The evidence is in all his posts something vaguely Trumpian in Shemsky both from his thin skin , propensity to name call and boast about his 7 figure holding that does not begin with one ! ( As Trump would say a teaser probably a nine)
Bubbles and crew just ignore him which is understandable - my final post on Mr Shemsky.

Noel I actually once defended you.
10.17 Thursday I said you could create a fight in an empty room.
You have proved the point. I would move on

Hard to get day ahead prices - catalyst digitital energy have a graph. Hard to pinpoint exactly but Q4 looks like to 17th November no more than 70p a therm.
Sekforde unfortunately any assumptions gain on oil will be lost on gas.

Divi headline price on trading economis is a forward price. We sell at next day price which has been very low for a while.
Still not sure and I know I am a broken record why we don't fill our boots and hedge at Trading economics prices.

London the $20 imy mistake should have been $25. s the previous taxable profit of $55 ($70 - $15 cost ) less realised loss of $30 [ actual price $100 less $70 hedge].
On non cash I had assumed as its a future guess no one knows. So it's today's swaps and today's prices = $1bn. Non cash as not realised and crude estimate.
In actuality it could be anything but once a loss is realised (my basic premisis) it moves to quasi cash.
It doesnt feel likeva balance sheet only item (such as lease assets and liabilities) as they explicitly refer to reducing WT if realised
Thanks for posts you clearly know your stuff

Auson
Pretty rubbish with IT and cant cut and paste a PDF but its page 10-11 of interim accounts.
At 30th June - the deffered asset from future hedging losses based on prevailing prices then was worth £1bn off future WT. Pretty major. Hedge loads now at $70 and it increases !!!
That asset (releif ) will rise and fall with market prices.
The movement from 25 to 35% tax means it will be eaten into quicker but does afford a significant protection.
My point is if you hedge today and tomorrows O&G price is higher the defered asset and tax relief increase.
If O&G price is lower all well and good as you have certainty of profit and cash flow

Apache- I think all uk producers are liable even if non dom. So Waldorf took Catcher and Kraken off CNE and pay on uk production . Only difference is they might get releif in US on high UK tax