Member Info for Banburyboy

Stevo / Terry I don't get the case against a floor.
So if the floor is 120p per therm and hypothetically next year we have no windfall tax as price is allways below - that's a loss of tax revenue. But 120p a therm is well below the 300p which customers bills are supported at.
So as the WT take falls as we hit the floor so does expenditure on supporting the customer. Its fiscally neutral fair and encourages long term investment.

Recent posters concluding same thing must be really ripe for a takeout at this price.

Fortunately Eccles the vast majority of people do believe it.
You were very lucky.
95% of citizens your age had the jab. Not something to boast about.

Info at 300p a therm I have net profit £1.4m a day after 75% tax so say £500m.
Your £200m would be reflective of about 120p per therm. That's normal level and just 40% of the current consumer price gap.
Surely just doing no more than squeezing current assets foe the six years they have left returns multiples of the current SP. Also at 23rd Sept they had £482m cash after q3 tax of £66m and interim dividend of £24m.
I have wondered if part of the problem is also realising a gain as an investor. Dividend income and gains are now heavily taxed and only so much that can go into an ISA or SIPP. Wonder if the big PIs like Hardys have same issue and holding shares is just not that attractive !

Noel have you ever for one second thought it might be you ? Most posters on here have no issues with each other. Falling out with one person is unfortunate, two unlucky but you fall out with much more. Please reccomend this post if you feel Noel should move on . Its up to you what you do but interesting to gauge the boards view.

Sorry wrong board ignore

Very roughly at 300p a therm That's £174 a barrel. Daily revenue on 26k barrel is £4.5m. 65% tax until year end = £1.5m. In a week we would have cleared £13m post tax of North Eigg. Agree valuation insane despite very punative tax rates. My presence is they just pay a dividend. £400m a year even with EPL and 75p dividend is well achievable for the dhort term.

Upomega - that's the stuff of Qanon. It will be a cabal of bloodsucking pedophiles led by JH and RS next. You actually post some decent stuff but not after the watershed. By all means tell me to get knotted but as I and others have said before posting when your sober would be more welcome

Flex point well made and I hold my hands up to not considering it.
Presumably they have to ring fence cash to the equivalent of the market prices of the hedged volume. I'm assuming as they have a contractual commitment to deliver and it assumes a worst case no production. Agreed ring fencing would be prohibitively expensive so I was talking rubbish. Anyone know how it works snd what you ring fence ?

Denis - without wanting to cause offence - Brexit demonstrated exactly your point. I had Hunt down as slightly wiser so surprised. The case for hedging the entire production at 300p a therm plus must be fairly compelling as it removes an existential risk if gas price craters and tax floor is not put in place. Would have thought company risk committee would have been all over this. Also gives certainy to cash flow NPV and ultimately company valuation. Would agree cash pile should abroad and dont rule out a bid as any owners can following the hedging strategy.

Cuckoo most on here are allert to the Board not having shareholders best interest aa paramount. Like you I'm away at 4p. Comfort blanket is those that will take us all for a ride need close to that.

Fairdealer hes a bunny boiler basket case. Just ignore him others on here do.

Hi Slowandsteady hope alls well.
I agree bond prices reflect.
1 The companies strength and the likelihood it will repay
2. External factors as interest rates are fixed - a rising forwars interest rate will push down the bond a reducing one will push it up.
Hard to disentangle the two but all investors should keep an eye on the bond price and its relevant so checkin keep posting.

Olivia - to a degree we are all stabing in the dark. One fact we do know was they issued an rns in September saying the delays would add £3m net to the cost. So £10m net cost to SQZ before delay £3m after.
I still think like Stevo 12 the releif is only at a limited degree for now. The company should clear up the cash flow implications of gross and net. No way this cost £100m plus.

Olivia - to a degree we are all stabing in the dark. One fact we do know was they issued an rns in September saying the delays would add £3m net to the cost. So £10m net cost to SQZ before delay £3m after.
I still think like Stevo 12 the releif is only at a limited degree for now. The company should clear up the cash flow implications of gross and net. No way this cost £100m plus.

Olivia
I'm interested in the net cost being quoted as £13m. As you point out that means the drill cost £125m if we really do get 90% plus releif.
I really don't think it cost that much and the £13m is net of the immediate relief (the windfall tax investment allowance). The rest of the releif will only crystallise in late 2023 when corporation tax for the year ended 31st Dec 2022 is payable.
Would be good to get a definitive statement from company of gross and net expected cost of the drill and it doesn't stack up to me .

Terry good posts and thanks for copying and pasting.
Unfortunately labour have no skin in the game so the rebels will need to convince JH and the PM.
I do think both are relatively sensible and will listen.
What is crucial is the optics. So they can't change the headline of 35% but what they can do is modify at the margins e.g low price and or small operators.
Fingers crossed.
Feels strange to me day ahead has trippled in three weeks and the SP is only up 10% despite tax issue being known. Feels to be all NS are awaiting news either from HMG on modifications or from companies on the impact on profit and investment. Still feel this is undervalued.

Thanks Messer.
Personally I would be delighted it the hedged everything at 260p until 2025. Everyone would win.
1 HMG and UK consumers as below 20% below the current cap on bills.
2 SQZ as free cash flow of circa $1.2m a day guaranteed = £350m a year. All cap ex paid for. A third in divs = 40p a share and our current market cap in cash by mid 2024.
I do think the market is struggling to value North Sea assets without updates on plans either good or bad

I have day ahead at 332p. With 58 therms in a BoOE. That's $192 a barrel.
Production circa 26k a day. Today's revenue $5m
Say cost 300k at 65% tax = $1.5m free cash flow

Thanks flex
Just reminding myself they had £482.4m at 23rd Sept after setting aside a £66m tax payment and £25m dividend.
Based on closing cash at 30th June of ££418m. This means they generated £154m cash in 12 weeks ! Yes tax is 65% but still one helluva return.