Member Info for Banburyboy

Upomega i disagree i find this a very balanced, reasonable evidence based factual board. Kistos is a benchmark but no more. Certainly no bullying behaviour. Great people and posters
Good to hear you are in the herd ;)
It's certainly got interesting.

Barry thanks for all the updates - I really apprecite them.
What a change in mood.
This morning many of us voted No and were resigned to the ultimate outcome being DEAL
Then this bombshell...
It was Boris who famously said." When the herd move "
Is it me or is the herd gathering ?

Skier - move on with the politics please the Lloyd's board is for you.
You can bore everyone senseless.on there.
Every survey shows we would be better off remaining. It's finished and done and you won. We are where we are. Please move on.

Wiscos - unless PSN sells mortgages that what it is.
I went in line cracking idea .

What a great idea.
Cap it at say 100k and 5%. Use existing cash to finance. This equates to 4k a shot.
They allready offer inducements of a similer value to encourage moving in. This just shuffles existing inducements around to where they have the greatest impact.
I think others will follow suit

Svend - VTY are afforded more protection that others through social housing and partnerships to a greater extent than other builders.
I think building on Chester's post thats what the experts are seeing.
Hope i'm right.
PSN look like they are offering to pay a mortgage for 10 months which is a great idea. They utilise there own cash to do it. Put a limit on there contribution say 100k and caped at 5% = 4k. Super idea that basically repositions inducements to buy that would have been offered anyway.

Mark
I think you are mixing currencies BDEV is a six month update covering a difficult period. PSN is a 12 month period.
Doesnt look too bad to me. However - Forward sales at 31st Dec are far lower than BDEV and sales per outlet in Q4 look lower.
Cash position better than projected.
Guessing but nothing here to move the SP much in either direction and i continue to hold and add as i think long term the housing market fundimentals are good.

IMO - no chance of a dividend annoucement. Just confirmation of policy annouced on 8th Nov.
Guidance for cash on 8th Nov was £700m. Useful benchmark for today.
I'm looking at better forward sales rates vs vs Barretts as PSN average prices are lower and are impacted less by affordability and supported by people trading down.

Zebbo unfortunately I agree.
Holding out for either an alternative offer - funded of course by our cash or a No vote. Both unlikely put possible.
If the clear and recent material increase in Tailwinds production is confirmed as permanent in Quarter 2 - it will definitely support earnings and the SP but not convinced they have not cherry picked facts. The wide difference between low and high guidance 8k BoOpD shows they are not sure.

Upomega you are the oddest of people.
"This board has shown its true colours there seems to be a faction that bands together .. clouding knowledge posts -- Kistos club.. "
That is absolutely not the case. Poster after Poster is voting No as this is high risk and expensive combination. Most posters preference is a stand alone SqZ.
Most were heartened by the presentation, impressed by Mitch but not enough to change minds.
No mention of Kistos in thevlast few days at all. This is a great board and I'm dissapointed you are dishing it.

The only clouding to me ( im sorry to say )is by upomega and this time I'm not even sure you've got your liking for the sauce as mitigation !

Clinch - likewise me on H/L
Agreed Mitch must have the Major PIs in the bag or be having some serious conversations because a No vote makes his position untenable.
Can't see how he's on boarded Major SHs I'm hoping Boards like this open their eyes but not holding my breath.

Likewise Ltd Axis - definitely no place for that.

Battle welcome - I agree really good debate.
Posters seem by a sizable majority agreed to still vote No. Key reason deal expensive and not risk free.
However posters also agreed Mitch allayed some concerns in his pitch - particularly around Mecuria and the debt lock box.

Listened in full.i thought
1.Mitch came across very well and clearly committed to this option.
2. The big positive was the lock box so all revenue from announcement is netted off against debt we aquire.
3. I have to take what they are saying about tax losses of £480m being available as true.
4. Fair play to him for answering all his e mails. And even phoning poster Info
Feeling more positive about the deal but a stand alone SQZ still feels safer. A counter bid even better !!!
Be interesting to see if this has swayed others.

Barry see my earlier post. Potentially is a key word. The actuality is a far lower number evidenced in accounts.
Not listening in but I bet he used that word to the letter !!!!@

Hot ticket
- any investment in NS is reclaimable once spent (rather than against future tax). This is a huge plus. What we don't know is if Delt get anything or it all goes to Shell. ? Poor if Delt have not addressed this.
- Big boys will screw us just a matter of when and timing your exit.
It's not a share I feel comfortable owning.

The last published Tailwind accounts show a very limited tax recoverability $242m in the main offset by accelerated capital allowances they have benefited from [$159m)
Tailwind is profitable but there accounts suggest a very limited tax loss brought foward net of $83m

The very selective RNS says
" Losses available for utilisation against future profit with potential tax offsetting in the region of £470m based on current rate of taxation"

The key word is potential it implies anything from zero to £470m with the professional estimate in the accouts at the low end. Smoke and mirrors to sugar coat a dog of a deal.
They of course ignore the capital allowances we will have to pay back for them because it suits there agenda.
Just hope the major PIs see this for what it is.

Just to add the attraction of this I hope is not lost on the wider market.
Still hoping for a £3.50 low ball offer. Which I think the Board would really struggle to make a case against.

Agreed.
Even allowing for WT and modest gas prices ALL our market cap will be in cash in late 2024.
Do nothing but buy backs and dividends is so appealing.
The proposed combination seems risky and the benefits flakey at best.
Too much noticeable risk and a complete lack of transparency on rewards.
One of the roles of the audit committee is an INDEPENDENT assessment of risk. I would love to know what they make of the deal.
It will of course not go to AC as the Boards mind is made up.
No from me.

Great Post Visitor
The information provided is neither objective nor impartial. The board has made its mind up irrespective of any queries or facts.
A No from me.
Interesting to see how major PIs respond.