Member Info for Banburyboy

Mike a strange after thought get real!! Steve has posted for a long time and doesn't occupy a position where he is privileged to insider information .
Your post re buy now when prices will fall by 10% and interest rates will fall. Does not consider :
- existing home owners impact neutral as both properties fall.
- the marginal cost of rent so that's just wasting money
- interest rates have peaked and fixs will fall as they are based on predictive falls.
- psn pay your interest for 10 months.
You ate absolutely way off the mark. You won't see £13.50 again let alone £10.
The biggest issue PSN has is remedial provisions on clading lots of unknowns and could drag on price.
To quote Boris when the herd moves it moves and markets lok forward in most instances.
Gradual rise from here towards summer circa £17 or so IMO.
Let's see

Nicname a ski slope that offers an opportunity.
To add some business context
This fell steeply from 11.7p in mid Oct on a lukewarm TU to 7.4 in mid Jan.
The TU Jan update was basically the same as mid Oct. But the share shot down to 4.8p.
Lots to like and the fall is overdone.
I brought in at 5.01p on the day of the collapse. Really pleased to see 6.37p to sell. Only pennies but spread decent. This is for me a reasonable prospect for 8p (25% and potentially a multi bagger with a buy out. Punch alone is worth the SP.

Norma that cash was paid in full on 12th January 2022 as a dividend to yes you've guessed Mecure..
You offer little or no defense to the challenge of the deal being expensive other than a faith the Board will do the right thing.
Let's hope you are right and as Hickster and the most famous literary optimist Wilkins McCawber would say 'something will show up"
It's well hidden at the moment.

Snoop all the accelades for super informative posts from Push and then the village idiot shows.
Have you anything meaningful to add to the debate ?
I guess we should be glad you are causing mischief and revalling is misfortune here rather than any website where people are vulnerable.
Please take a hard look at yourself and get a life.

Visitor / New KTOB
The Tailwind 31st December 2021 Accounts have the loan outstanding as $344.599
The loan we take on as part of the December 22 deal is £277m
Based on an exchange rate of 1.2 $/£ the two are broadly similer.
So nothing extra in the box with the exception of Dec 22 and Jan 23 cashflow which makes this deal any cheaper.
So nothing hidden here - its still expensive so why do the big PI's like it !!

Visitor - good post. I have completely overlooked the point that the reference date for the debt was Nov 22 and as you say that should reflect cash generated in the previous 11 months.
The fact that the lock part starts from an earlier reference point than the agreed net debt is somewhat bizarre.
The dividend paid out in 2022 was in relation to the Tailwind 2021 year so is probably out of scope.
Logically you would expect closing debt to have fallen materially from Jan 22 to the Nov agreed figure to reflect 11 month cash generation.
But who knows with this deal .

Zebo two considerations for me
- the surge in Tailwind production continues
- the locked box has Tailwind cash generated from 1st Jan 2021 In it. £150m would seem reasonable.
If both happen £3.50 possible but no guarantees

NKOB - agreed why would an investor not ask what the estimate is for the locked box and why it was down played [ it's important to me]
In terms of Jeremy Reaper - I think he came across excellenty. Asked all the key questions with a layman's perspective on complicated issues. I say that as an ACA and a non exec audit committee chair at the public sector.
Mitch came across weak at the first presentation. Much better at the second.
His FD was awful and inarticulate and they mercilessly dropped him for the second.
presentation.
Norma lots of people with lots of experience on here. You have your view which we respect but it's very harsh dishing Mr Reaper. Most on here thought he captured extremely well all our concerns and the saga of the locked box for me raises more questions on the lack of perceived transparency by the BoD ( on audit committee perceived transparency is as much an issue as actual).

This looks cheap to me and no debt.
Attracted by kingfisher q3 updating for the period to 19th November - sales growth.
Hopefull Q4 will be good and some traction given to SP.
Dividend at 7 -8% also looks good and sustainable.

Norma I would replace " read and seen too much fiction " with having been stung by AIM too many times.
I agree it would be best for you to exit this one for now.
Some great and informed posters on here - they even mustered 25% of small tiddler holders to vote NO. Very interested in their take on the locked box trigger date of 1st Jan 2022 and the company downplaying it.

Norma - sorry you just don't get this.
You have a blind spot the size of a planet when it comes to proper corporate governance.
You focus purely on process rather than substance and intent.
At face value this rather " coy" and 'sly' disclosure of the locked box is good news. TAILWIND 2022 profit is owned by SQZ. Why not shout that from the roof tops it materially reduces the price of aquisition and de risks the deal ?
As you say the SPA will be kept secret .
I'm beginning to think the coy disclosure is because the spoils of Tailwinds 2022 might be shared between a few big players who voted YES.
I suggest all share holders lobby the company re the estimated value of the locked box for the period 1st Jan 2022 to 31st December 2022 and its ownership.

But hare is right .
You have a history of lazy posts.
Like all builders it's fully provided for. The accounts have full details.

Norma
The locked box covers a period of 12 months PRIOR to the BoD telling SHs of the proposed aquisition.
That involves a profit of maybe £150m to £200m.
As others have pointed out SQZ have made no attempt to advertise this to "sell" the deal as it materially alters the price we are paying something I and others were saying was far to high.
Don't you find that strange ?or are I and every other poster on here just stupid !
Seems to me your investment strategy in blind faith associated with an acceptance that a material consideration being buried in the small print is just normal corporate behaviour.
Might be a case of Venus and Mars but you are in a different space to others.

20 page PowerPoint to sell the benefits to unruly shareholders.
Key benefit locked box with one years tailwind profits never referred to.
Fishy is an understatement

Norma if you are so intelligent and immediately understood the significance of the closed box and 1st Jan 2022 date . Why did you not have the courtesy to tell us and others.
Happy to keep you out of it but I and virtually every other poster on here feels misled

Tailwinds Profit to me looks anywhere between £100 - £200m. In 2021 they made post tax $70m on 14k a day production. Prices higher.
Reviewed PowerPoint presentation - no mention of locked box or 1st Jan 2022 start date. Mitch brought it up but was not explicit and we all assumed it was from RNS re aquisition.
Something seriously dodgy on communications. Had they told it as it was some of the doubters me included might of been convinced.
Unfortunately this is the AIM !!

Norma - i like you but you could not be more wrong. At no juncture have they EXPLICiTLY said. Mecure shares + £50m + Tailwind debt LESS the entirety of Tailwinds profit for 2022.
Had that explicitly said the last line the deal sounds much better. Why would they not shout it from the rooftops !!
You have to ask why they have said so little about an item that takes £150m - £200m off the aquisition price.
I have my own views re how long this has been agreed but it urgently needs EXPLICITLY clarifying.

NewKoTB you are bang on re section 1.2. It can't be a typo as it's mentioned three times.
Begs the question why they can explicitly say the aquistion price is deflated by ALL of tail winds 2022 profit. And remember they don't pay corporation tax just WT.
Absolutely astonishing !

New KoTB. Excellent work.
I have been very vocal on saying there is something they cannot publicly disclose to persuade major PIs to vote for this.
If the locked box started on 1st Jan 22 then the aquisition price is much more palatable. And perhaps that's what they can't publicly say.
It also implies they have been working on this for a period massively before Kistos offer and reached an in principle agreement without SH approval.
Really good to hear jonaten reapers view on this.
Either way it does i agree with you feel a win win for deal skeptics.

Looks like the usual all night session is turning into an all day session for our resident drinker.
He's determined to avoid advice to refrain from posting whenhalf cut.
You can lead a horse to water but in this case you can't stop it drinking seems to sum it up.
Interesting to see SP over next week. I'm expecting a PR campaign and good news on performance and distributions for the renegade 25% many of which frequent this Board which should push SP up. Not as much as if we had not persued the deal but I will have to get used to putting that behind me :]