Member Info for Banburyboy

Or Thursday even. Not a holder but my 92 year old mum has plenty of these and BP. Dad chose very well.

Some nice posts.
My main concern is the immediate need for funding.
The Dec 22 raise based on today's SP has been a disaster. The loanee can either covert at 0.2p a huge dilution for holders or choose as the floor has been reached to take the cash. If they take the cash the raise will have to be substantial.
The company needs a cash inflow and quick. Not sure whether we could sell the rights to the DRC claim just so we can keep bailing water.

Steve - I think you meant last year. And you are also referencing forward sales.
Can't see why Bellway are guiding on Jan 23 completions that actual sales will be down 2% in six months to 30th June 23 compared to the comparative. Forward sales should recover but if we mirror BEL enouugh in the pipeline for a decent first half of 2023. Million doller question is timing and speed of recovery on forward sales. Hopefully it's just in time.

Raging -your predictions look reasonable to me.
And yes it does look like pressure building on mitigating a fairly penal UK oil tax regime .
Don't think it will be in budget because the optics don't look good ( even though we know its misunderstood).
I've still never seen a clear explanation for why instead they don't add to PRT or introduce a separate levy ( like they did to banks) which would raise the same revenue but hit BP / SHEL / CNA etc. Which is not unreasonable.
Is there some logic / legal reason they can't do that - conspiracy theories aside.
Many thanks Banbury

Thanks Mike.
Unfotunatly for many they can't buy so have no choice but to rent.
For those that can buy I really don't see or hear many quoting flexibility - insecurity perhaps.
On understanding the maths you saw my example on 150k mortgage costing 7.5k in interest. The equivalent rent is for life was 12k
Consider also
- inflation erodes the loan value and a fix is interest proofed. Rents just go up as inflation does.
- capital repayments reduce interest
- house prices in most instance tend to rise.
I'm not sure I agree with you on the buy rent debate on houses up to 200k in value.
Above that possibly
Not long now until 1st March PSN are one of the first to report. Bellways January update gives me hope and I'm sure the massaging will be Jan / Feb was better than Q4.
My fingers and toes are crossed. Are you a holder or are you planning gto buy in if it goes lower ?

Bellway updated in February and said for January reservations and visits increased on quarter 4. They statef If that continued sales in 2023 would be circa 2% down on the half to 30th June 2022
Hoping PSN reflects a similer pattern and a good February on 1st March. Fingers crossed but lots of green shoots for me. The mini budget and Truss were an aboration that hopefully is behind us.

Fair point Mike. Neither you or I know i agree.
Your 12.26 post was pretty hard with capitals et al a really heavy bear case and I overeacted apologies..
Time will tell where this goes.
Stewart agreed I probably got carried away.
I would be seriously more worried if we had deflation or stag flation - a little dose of inflation I don't think impacts buyers intentions negatively. It feels something that more hits margins particularly if house prices lag.
Fingers crossed if you are both holders

The previous raise has a floor of 0.2p.
The discount of 8% and rounding down mean we are at that point.
The loan provider can opt at the floor just for all their cash back plus heavy interest.
If they do that the next raise would need to both repay December raise and fund administration for Quarter 2 2023 . !!!
If they opt for shares at 0.2p dilution will be amazing.
It does look very much like time has caught up with the company and AB.
Desperately needs DRC

Mike we go round in circles with you. Same answer as allways
The average PSN mortgage is 150k. Interest is say generously 5% per annum. Total interest payments £7500. Average rents £1000 a month = £12,000.
So you first time buyer is (1) £4,500 better off than renting. (2) probably aware PSN will pay their mortgage for 10 months. This reduces the margin from 25% to 22% but bottom line impact minimal as it replaced other inducements (3) high inflation has a huge impact on the future value of debt - it reduces it.
The impact is less at the top end of the market but PSN operate at the bottom. Add to that some inducements at the March budget and its got £18 in the summer written all over it.
Sorry but you are wrong - you are behind the curve with your buckle up

Jeff - if you were more selective and a little less serious ( bullying was harsh) you might engage people on here. They are not bots paid or rampers just normal individuals with a liking for share dealing.
Unfotunatly you've posted so many links of what you deem facts over the past few months on so many subjects no one has the time inclination or desire to read them. You are your own worst enemy. God help in the real world anyone say going to the pub with you ? Do they get the same performance. Chill a bit and calm down.

Jeff you have what you deem a FACT backing up yiur stance on every single issue known to man. You accept no dialogue or alternative opinions to your FACT. That in my eyes is a bully anc looks like in most other posters eyes to.
Not necessarily a fact [ as I have balance ] but on the presented evidence like others I strongly suspect you post as Rookie in a much more objective and relevant way. Would be nice to see you as Rookie a bit more and a lot less of Jeff. Perhaps you could shut down the Jeff part :)
Good luck all the other posters on HBR

Jeff - no one clicks on your pointless links. You lack evidence and balance an inability to reflect or concede. A keyboard bully.
You may think posters on here don't have the intellect of a 12 year old . I don't
Most on here don't trawl the net endlessly finding some wacko and niche confirmation from God knows where supporting your crackpot views that in the main don't stand up to rigorous scrutiny.
You might engage an audience better elsewhere - dare I say of fellow twelve year old.

Thanks Steve and Shpinx.
I was trying to explain to others on here weeks ago that 5 years fixes are rather dynamic and forward looking rather than the here and now.
3.75% fixes NOW with Base rates still moving up potentially to 4.5% in the next few months or so. These clips are living proof of that.
Falling inflation and supply shortages and a high comparative cost of renting all add further traction.
We have 100% reached the bottom, how quickly it will grow from here is debatable but I'm really optimistic and see £18 by the summer (mid August)

Sekford I reach a similer FCF figure to you.
Here's how
FCF 2022 from company update 19 Jan update $2.1bn
Add back 2022 EPL of $350 EPL charge in 2022 from update makes base = $2.45bn
If EPL cost $350 in 2022 (25% for six months only) 35% for a full year = $980m.
So like for like - similer hedging production prices as 2022. The FCF will be circa $1.45bn ( you have it as $1.54bn).
My analysis assumes identical realised prices of $78 per bone and 86p a therm. As hedges dissapear this might provide further uplift. Reduced debt levels will also provide uplift
I share others views this is undervalued and will buy more prior to FY results where hopefully we will get an indication of 2023 trading

Everybody but you Norma and General Levy.
Either a reveal or we have been sold down the river

At face value the deals awful. You've closed your mind to it your perogative . Just let the 90% on here who think it's awfull and their must be a reveal debate it. Surely not to much to ask ?

Looking expensive now
66k fee all paid in shares
Subscription price now down to 0.2p the floor price. The funding provider can opt at any time to not take shares and revert support back to a loan paying interest. Its approaching the point where they would do that.
Unless Congo or Elephant yields some cash it's looking really dire.
And if we do get lucky the conversion to shares will happen limiting any gain.
Feels like check mate and lose lose

Hi Speculative.
I know it's frustrating to have so many negative posters and I am one. This share attracts us like moths to a light.
For the best part of ten years a poster called Mr Magic turned cynicism into a full time job on this board . He called it bang on year after year
I was looking this morning and it's nearing a five year low - despite was it a forty to one consolidation.
It's been in freefall for fifteen years .
The fall is breath taking and littered with jam tommorrow promises that never deliver.
You I know are aware of the risk but others may not be and constant warnings are posted by myself and others for their financial wellbeing
I would love this to rise to 1p on Elephant or the imminentCongo deal or Glencore or Lithium but history and form is against it.
We must be approaching the six month anniversary of Imminent and it will go down in folklore alongside Greenland , the Limon and that Cypriot bank.
There is a dichotomy that something is so bad it's addictive and compelling viewing. I'm afraid that's why I can't stop myself from looking in. AB is in a strange way a legend the eddy the Eagle of the market.
Best of luck.

Beautifully summed up Sasa.
I'm actually quite hopeful.
What I argue perpetually with Norma (one of the two) is based on what was publicly available the deal was awful.
There must be something we don't know which tipped the balance for the big PIs but none of us know what !!

Tony "copium of posters who backed it" !
I conducted a detailed headcount 2 posters were in favour 37 against.
The vast majority shared your view.
Onwards and upwards and hopefully we will be proved wrong.

Exploration what you see as bad management I see as a master plan !!
No one can really be that bad.
I think price is being deliberately dragged down for.
1 - preferential RI to those in the know which will ceed control and mean small fry are taken out.
2 - low ball offer dressed up as a40% premium on a deliberately suppressed SP.
An awful share