Member Info for Banburyboy

Thanks Jeff - you are wasted on here with your perceptive insights on a whole myriad of issues.

Dropped as low as 8p on HL
Back up to 8.05
Floor seems to be holding and no mad rush for the door as we had in early April.
The business is cash generative, with limited debt. Reasonable recovery shout.

Nothing in their too alarming.
Management seem quite confident.
Peach looks a great buy - doing well and offers diversification.
SP ? Don't see much further action after those results but who knows

Trading update tommorrow. In two minds whether to hold or sell. I've had a great run up from 5p

I sold up half on 21st Feb and went in HBR. Since that trade HBR is up 9% and SQZ down 4%.
They should really move in tandem. The disjoint is in my opinion the negative goodwill associated with the deal. MF might pull a rabbit out the hat or we might have the big reveal but they will need to be good to make up for a quite considerable collapse of the SP.

I'm seriously bullish and agree with last four posters - great buying opportunity.
Looking at the downside even if there is worst to come PSN have.
- large cash buffer
- no debt or banks pulling strings
- 3000 or so units nearly built which will translate to cash.
- a mostly variable cost base which can be flexed with activity both up and down.
Unlike most risk and reward plays this has a solid floor based on NAV and even the most negative on here concede it won't go bust. That's pretty unique.
For me the issue is when will it recover and I think £18 by summer as inflation eases and rates follow.
Glad.

Thanks Mike - I think you are a great poster considered around a position that is not allways welcome. Indeed you chastised me when it was deserved.
We come from opposite ends of the spectrum.but you called results day spot on.
For me and I get you will think I'm in denial but I'm more confident of £18 in the summer than ever.
What we can agree on is its not PSN per se but the economy. The inflection point and I agree with others here is people will move heaven and earth to own a house however thought things are. That will support the market. Good luck with your investments as you say you are not in PSN

Definitely some positive momentum. I can sell all mine for 8.37 and given I took a small punt at 5.01p ( risky but liked no debt or what they had was puch aquisition) . Not sure about an exit and whether to wait for results or nor

Clich I get the sentiment but they do feel undervalued even at 75% and I'm hopeful of some floor consideration on the tax. Time will tell

I sold a chunk of mine at £2.56 on 21st Feb and brought HBR seconds later at £2.79.
Given the perceived advantage of TWids oil meaning we are no longer a gas company logic would suggest they move in tandem.
I'm 6.5% up on HBR and 4% down on SQZ. Differential 10%.
Info is right sentiment seems to have left this share.
I hope it goes well for holders but the deal represented moving from a known but comfy future to a giant leap into the unknown.
Share price reflects that.Hopefully blind faith of the few rather than professional skepticism of the many will win the day.

Braispark
All your posts re news soon from pretty obscure social media accouts never come to fruition.
Have you ever thought about keeping your consel until something actually happens.
At least Speculative Investor has a degree of realism in his posts

Hi Nicname I know you are not a fan !
Interestingly in late 2017 they had a £2.03p bid per share but only 50m shares. How timez change !!

PSN trading reservations per site were 0.56 in Jan / Feb compared to 0.19 in final five weeks of 2022 and 0.3 in final quarters.
Forward sales were £300m higher than January 23 RNS.
Complete over reaction to dividend IMO.
I think it will rise 5% today and be back in the £14 -£15 range when other HB report. Stonking buy at this level

Wisco's you are right the full dividend is 60p for 2022.
However as a shareholder we will receive 60p on the 5th May and an interim dividend before 31st December 2023 in relation to the 2023.
The Board are rightly being cautious and their intention is to "at least" maintain it in 2023.
Thats as close as you can get to a definate floor and in reality it will be £1 plus.

I'm happy - positive update on sales
Divi paid to me in 2023 (realting to two years) of probably 90p +)
I think a sharp spike down followed by recovery and this feels enoght to keep the share price between £13 and £14 .. even if i'm hoping for more.

So from 12th January update

Forward sales position has reduced to £1bn (2021 £1.6bn) of which £0.5bn realtes to forward private sales (2021 £1.1bn)
Net sales per outlet for the year 0.69
Quarter 4 - 0.3
Last seven weeks of 2022 0.19

Today we have
Curent forward sales stand at £1.52n with private £0.81bn
Sales reservations 0.52 in first eight weeks.

Feels and looks very hopefull in just a time horizon of 6 weeks.
Not here for the divy but the potential capital gain. If it does tank great bying opportunity.

Welcome it being called out if I have this wrong but.
Help to buy ended in Oct 22 with a limit house had to be built by 17th March and keys by 6pm 31st March. So agreed Q1 completions heavily influenced.
Redrow and Bellway were reporting a big uptick in reservations in Jan 23 compared to Q4 and the mini budget debacle. Given that's the first stage of buying none of that is influenced by HTB. If anything is saying the market is good.
It's the reservations which make me hopeful tommorrow

Mike - not long down.
Think you are completely right on the dividend 80p to £1.10 feels right.
They have been weaning themselves of HTB so what drove 50% of new sales a few years back is now 20%.
There will be tick up Jan / Feb on reservations some will be very late HTB but sentiment is returning after the disaster of Truss.
We will find out tommorrow and this should set the tone as the earliest reporting on FY of housebuilders.
Good luck to holders

Thanks Chapel. He didn't say much. Interims and TU 7th March. Thinks they were cautious on £6.7m to £10m EBIT&D.

Emerald - you thought the SP was mad two weeks ago when it was 35% higher. I like you from other boards but this is DELT and not like other shares.
They are probably looking for the mother of rights issues. To preffered subscribers only. 75% control and private.
That was always a certainty but I and others thought we might escape at 4p ... sadly it looks like any escape will be half that.
Luckily I have a small holding at 2.1p but feel sorry for others.
Madness doesn't apply to DELT - its a management master plan.

Crossley won't help with CPI until after 30th June.
CPI is cap price so what we pay not wholsale.
Unfotunatly that goes up £400 per annum in April as direct support falls. [ won't impact CPI compared to Q1 as direct support) so price unaltered to you and i
It will fall like a stone on 1st July current estimate 40%.
I'm hoping for a bounce Wednesday as reservations recover. Two camps seem to be here [1] those who think worst to come [2] those who can see green shoots and slow recovery. Wednesday will be interesting and is the first major to report since Redrow early Feb 23.