Member Info for Banburyboy

The SP is beginning to settle broadly around the £15 mark. HSBc has 5 year fixes at 3.99% and PSN paying mortgage for ten months. Soft landing small hit to margins sustainable £1.10 divy likely , underpinned by lack of housing supply and increasing rent.
This has bottomed and represents a solid investment for newbies.
My only worry is provisions for cladding which when actually incurred become deductible for corporation tax. So a buffer of 30% or so but I worry about the accuracy of estimates.
Take away cladding and risk here is actually quite low and yield on £1.10 which is nailed on and sustainable close to 7%.

Norma you are so naive ? What else did you expect ?- just the same as previous updates - realised sale prices , how much cash they have how much is restricted ? An Outlook.
What they have released is the bare minimum they can get away without exposing what an awfull deal this is.
Tailwinds production in December peaked at 24.5 booed they said a month ago to sell the deal - on its way down allready
I don't buy into your blind faith approach but hopefully it will soon become clear why major PIs voted YES.

Rumour of an announcement of a new government Department which will be interesting. If its standalone "ambit" includes energy security which it should reasonably do - they should be on to the fact the new taxes without some finesing are killing the NS..
Whilst there is zero chance the 35% headline rate will change, I do think common sense will prevail and they will look.at the ceilings / floor with falling energy prices.
Like others if SP continues to fall and approaching 80% cash I'm hoping and praying for a private equity bid however unlikely that seems.

Great posts and very funny.
I'm actually a fan of gallows humour.
Seriously NKOTB agree the SP has factored in how awful the deal looks at face value- so hopefully an upturn is due.

Sorry missed a key word. Should read abject embarrassment of SQZ standalone CASH value being higher than the SP

Norma leg pulling allowed !
The case for the deal has never been explicitly or convincingly made based on known facts. The locked box is empty so there is hopefully something good to come to compeensate !
I hope they are holding back results for something good rather than the abject embarissment of SQZs stand alone value being higher than the SP !!
£3 again and I'm off. No deal and I would have stayed. I suspect many are similer

Oilman -yes probably driven by an IOU from Serica to Mecure of £150m in a locked box.
Norma s choice of words " happily* is a combination of gut wrenching and putting the boot in.
Blind faith and tea leaves springs to mind.
Dickupham - add in an after hours lock in with Upomega to the plan and it might just work.

Cp94 - fair comment but in fairness to Torino hes not aware this Board is stuck with the village idiot. Torino it's care in the community you call rather than the FSA.

General
The debate on here is nothing to do with any of the rubbish in your post re public perception
It a sentence it was about was the deal offered to SHs good using known metrics.
You were in a tiny minority supporting the deal vocally but never presented a single fact or peice of evidence in defence.
I would respectfully ask you not to lecture people on here about what they forget !
On the evidence presented and using other posters as a benchmark you are not starting from a position of strength.

Good find Minnie's
On reading it PSN over the last two years have reduced dependency on the scheme from 40+% to 20%. The impact was allready priced in from the last TU and old news.
What currently the SP is reacting to is better future macro economic conditions which will make it far easier for the cohort previously helped by the scheme to stand on their own two feet.
The medicine was administerd. The patient got far to complacent on the scheme. The withdrawal had side effects but some mitigation showing in wider macro position. Patient will re emerge bruised not dead !

Skier you really are an intellectual collosas !!
Most on here would be pretty surprised by your observation that the UK has been the fastest growing economy in the G7 for TWO years running. I was !
A quick fact check from OECD figures. You are correct in notional terms but in real terms once adjusted for inflation ( only Italy higher CPI) we are sixth in 2022. Getting facts right is important.
The prospects for PSN are good. For the UK and PSN they would have been better but for Brexit. But its done finished let's move on
Unfortunately you can't and have developed a paranoia under the skier blinkers.
Plenty of like minded people on Lloyd board to discuss politics and " spun" economics with.
Good week for PSN and pretty sure those holding out for a repeat of the £11 low have a long wait
On a lighter note any predictions for say July 1st.
If there is enough interest I will set up a book. My guess £17.40

Fits with the consensus view that the deal based on known facts is awful.
I have allways said there must be something behind the scenes to convince big holders to vote this through with a YES.
Hardly transparent and honest but it is AIM.
The model / idea you present does hold out hope for shareholders.

Sat in the pub on my own reflecting.
This is awful.
For me a lot depends on if Tailwind can maintain that 20k a day they reached in Decenber 22 an update is massively overdue.
For regular posters
- upomega is passed out at the bar
- Andy our FD is crying and spilling beer on his P 45.
- Norma is on karaoke - singing blind faith.
Back in the real world SQZ is in terminal decline

Looks like it's on its way back to £15.
Sentiment is changing. No £11 again.
As Boris said when the herd moves it moves !!

I'm a deal.
They have changed there capital policy to invest in the business like other HB.s. The £2.25 per year are well behind us. For 2022 given cash position and £800m profit I think £1 to £1.20 is nailed on as a 2023 payment.
Moving forward if its a soft landing no reason why it won't grow from there.
The debate here is around will house prices be benign, interest rates peaking and buying being more attractive than rent.
With rents over £1000 for a small three bed. PsN operating at the cheaper end a 150k mortgage costs £7,500 in interest as opposed to 12k in rent.
PSN also pay the interest for ten months.That eats into margins but 6k incentive on a 250k house brings margin down fron 25% to 22.5%. Great idea to tread water while still making 22.5% whilst the market is sticky.

I had wondered if we would see a sharp dive today but it's holding well. Feels like better sentiment.
Good debate on here - on the issue of motgage rates and connection to base rate. Mortgage rates peaked in Nov when base rate was a full percentage lower than now.
The mortgage market is heavily influenced by futures which are pointing downwards. How quickly that happens is speculation but IMO its this forward view HB SP s are reacting favourably to.

Intuition feels like the longer the wait broadly speakin the more likely positive news.
Some knowledgeable posters on here would that statement have any truth ? Or wisfull thinking on my part.

Skier jog back to Lloyd's with all your mates to talk politics please.
I've no axe to grind either way but did note the IMF has Britain as the slowest growing major economy. They are independent and tactifully steered clear of the obvious explanation - Brexit .
Last I looked inflation was a world wide phenomena and rate decisions were set by nine panel members not Andrew Bailey.
The brexit blinkers are on so tight you can forgive him for having an opinion on remain. Just move on.
This is a great bord which in the main talks about economics not politics most I'm sure would like to keep it that way.

No worries Mike appreciated.
I was more worried by you saying this will hit the lows £11 for PSN in the summer and you asked for views. Hope you make a gain whatever

Hi Stewart
Andy Bailey was up beat on rates peaking his job is to be cautious. Rishi is betting the house inflation will fall which it will massively US now to 4% price
Fixed rates are forward looking so will be 3 - 4% within two or three months. Most of the fixes you mention will benefit from this and any good advisor will tell them to stay on SVR for a while. Bank rules on lending least strict for a while. Huge incentives available. Huge pressure on rents as landlords pull the plug. Soft landing
Your 5 to 10 years may see huge swings but for this summer this is nailed on for £17 as a floor.
I took objection to the £10 summer predication based on nothing.
Cladding is the main worry