Member Info for Banburyboy

Oil at 18 month lows. Huge falls in utilities from July. Barring a shock in fuel markets inflation is on its way to target.
BoE will and should take the lead from the fed.
My view is no change inflation Outlook promising. Risks around economic growth and banking that point to no change.

Speculative what overseas success has he had in legal disputes ?
Arguably he did well winning arbitration on this but turning into cash in DRC is Herculean.
I'm not even having a pop at AB but placing reliance on that coutrys legal system is a road to ruin.
It's not for the want of trying but I will be amazed if he pulls this off.

Suprised Mecure have their shares at £2.78 !!
Mecure have effectively swapped a 40% interest in debt laden Tailwind for a 30% share in cash rich Serica.
Mecure paid nothing and received everything !
Let see what suprises lay in wait for SHs.
Sold much of my small holding and dont see a particularly bright future. We were doing perfectly well alone but chose to swim in a pool with sharks.
Not a surprise when we are bitten

Johnny Jefff needs perminanly gagging and anyone with any sense would filter his nonsense. Rookie is I agree the same person.
Jeffffff is an acquired taste and a very unusual sense of humour but I think Jefffff is actually one of the good ones. He's taken it on himself to put down the idiocy of the two clowns.

Blue - you comments are more to to with strategy which is anyones guess.
I'm interested in fundamentals and the impact of a floor on EPL at varying levels.
We can all debate the level but what I'm presenting is any floor so $50 has a circa $800m annual impact on FCF.
I'm still not convinced the fact that any ammendment to the EPL is material is factored into the SP

Dumbly
I would be surprised if the floor was $70.
I started the thread as I don't think the SP even considers how material a floor is.
Let's say floor or taper stat at $50 ?
With production cost circa $17 that's a reduction in tax o$33 @35% so $11.5 a barrel.
On 200k production is $2.3m a day !!!
My point is a floor at any level even one that posters on here would consider with distain is material to the SP.

Dennis except you have to combine our 100% risk free cash with a rather substandard asset known as Tailwind. Mitch be brave and pull it. 50p rise over night

Durley- yes just for illustration in practice there will be a taper.
My point is any easement on EPL is worth pontially a lot more than this weeks hick up on oil prices

I find the following interesting.
1 - Fall in Brent from $85 to$72 = $13. Marginal tax is 75% therefore HBR lose $3.25 per barrel Profit after tax

2. HMG puts a floor on EPL.Lets say at$65. Production cost $15. Benefit to HBR 35% of $50 = $17.50 per barrel.

News on the floor is massively more valuable to HBR and us than falling oil prices
I thought the comparison was quite eye opening and feels nothing is factored in

Thanks Norma.
I'm absolutely no fan at all but does bring Boris,s parting quote to mind. " When the herd moves it moves" !! And as you say equally applicable to a run on a bank as the removal of a PM

Hi Norma
Even I can't speculate how much of the crash is market related and how much is due to what many beleive is a bad deal.
What I think is unrefutable is the current SP on the old company represents pure cash and should be the floor.
I fear lack of news relates to problems at Tailwind and MF wants the deal over the line before he discloses.
Just a gut feeling but watch this space.
When we drop below £2.10 which is cash there can only be one conclusion terrible deal for shareholders and a perminant material dimunation in the value of the Tailwind assets compared to what we SQZ shareholders are paying.
Mitch if you are reading not to late to pull the plug and do you really want to face the what you knew and when when Tailwind doesn't deliver ?
Hope I'm wrong but nothing here feels right.

Taken the advice. And the Board has a much better look . Shame the bullies win but not much choice.

Thanks Dartman you are right.
The fact that Jefff is so blinkered he actually thinks what he knows as the clowns on here are paid says it all.
Most on here would pay to have Jefff and Rookie not to post.
God only knows what they do / did for a living ? To become like this.
I will take your advice and enjoy the experience.

Woke up to the normal nonsense from the gruesome twosome. Who are the same person. Two fact checks
1"- bank failure in US caused by Donald Trump raising threshold for regulation for $50bn to $250bn. Pretty simple and not a conspiracy.
2. - household gas and electricity prices will remain high until June as quite sensibly suppliers brought in advance. Cornwall Insights the experts on this are predicting a fall from July.
It's called proper reseach Jefff not your blinked research which closes its mind to anything that is not a " conspiracy"
Much as you two love the term clown for all the posters on her. I'm afraid your the top clown. Good luck with your "research". I'm assuming you use Google and then type latest conspiracy theory before posting on here ? Nice :)

If Ocean bothered to read the accounts he will see the business is cash generative even in bad times. What he calls a loan is effectively a business overdraft so the banks are pretty sanguine.
The overdraft in its entirety was used to buy Peach. Had they not done that they would have cash on the balance sheet.
Not sure what the future holds for Rev B but they remain marginally cash generative in bad times, better in good times and won't go bust. For me it will either chug along in range of 6-8p or good results will push it up to 10-12p. Also think a bid at a market cap of £15m is not impossible

Jefffff - what an absolute class back history of posts you have.
The subtle and humerous way you chastise the terrible two is absolutely class.
I agree LC has played a blinder and I'm hopeful whilst we might not get any specific measures at the budget. They will announce the structure of the tax is under review

Maverick £1.7bn of HBRs takes charge is a provision against future years EPL. Don't fully understand the accounting but HBR are clearly kitchen sinking 2022 to get public leverage on the injustice ofvthe tax regime just before the budget. I think they have played a bad hand well. Unlike our board who we can safely say have played a good hand badly.

Interesting £1.469bn of the tax charge in the year is a one off and deffered. Seem to be taking a one off accouting hit.
Clearly they are focusing on this potentially as leverage to bring about some changes to a punitive regime.
No idea how market will take it but beneath the sub text of the tax buy backs and dividends are affordable

These are the guys who we are tied to for the fund raise.
They get to round down the price to a tenth of a penny or covert to a loan at cica I think 10% interest.
Interesting if on the next raise they opt for shares at 0.2p or a loan ?
Either way the dilution is heavy or else they could end up with a secured loan getting the company.
Andrew Bells son is in the business hope he's not CEO of Diversified Metal :)
If he is it could be game set and match on the AIM casino .

General Levy - you have allways been pro the deal and rather dismissive of the many on here.
I assume you still think the deal is to SHs benefit ? Can you expand ?