Member Info for Banburyboy

Unhooked nothing new in today's update? Three new screamers.
1 - Roger backstop 10% plus fees ! Board had a fiduciary duty so that rate represents going rate if they need re-finacing not pretty.
2. Underwriting - no profit in year to Jan 24.
3. Retail margins down from £71 a policy to £60 for 23/24.
For me lots of new stuff and not too pretty.
I can see Rog backstop used and £1 - £1.20 buy out.
How much the company is worth before is not relevant. It made £200m a year 4 years ago 80% on insurance. I spent two years misguidedly thinking we would see that profit again. Unfortunately £25m is the norm now and real questions around if the company can service its debt.

Sprights it's a thoroughly unattractive proposition unfortunately.
Nine years of ships debts to pay before any meaningful contribution. The £40m per ship is wholly eaten up by interest and repayments in cash flow and interest and depreciation in PBT.
Holidays are a dog and every year it something Thomas Cook Iceland volcano covid ...
Insurance as Poker says lack scale and is a shadow of its old self.
Three years ago Titan was supposed to be worth £120m and the underwriting £250m.
I'm sorry but only direction this will go is private and I think the first part of that is the backstop provided by Roger.
Ultimately he will bail the company out and conversion of his loan will be part of taking this private.
Seems like a good bloke but what's fair value £1.00 - £1.20 tops. Rogue I think we need a re rate for the party.

Becoming no law about conflicts of interest.
The rules are about disclosure and they have done that in full.
My concern is the Board have a fiduciary responsibility to get the best rate for the company. And if that's the best rate - refinancing any of the debt which is currently at rates of 3 -5% is an uphill struggle.

For me the fundamentals have changed. Insurance used to carry the company. It performance last year was poor and the projections for this year are shocking.
Not sure what the " future prospects" are Taverham but I do hope you are right.

Dianto - the only risk yiu have is I allways call this wrong So half expecting a rise :)

And whilst £40m per ship EBITD sounds a lot it adds circa £2 -5m to bottom line cash. Reason interest and loan repayment.
With dire forward projections on insurance and a limited contribution from travel tour they will struggle to service the two bond issues.
For me they are burning far to much on advertising / marketing and the new businesses. Its flow through to the bottom line is pitiful.

Yes for a very short period and at 10% interest with 6% set up fee. What you see as a positive I see as woeful. If we can't achieve a better rate than that we are in trouble.
Did not like either no underwriting profit in current year nor guided retail margins falling from £71 a policy now to £60 this year.
I'm afraid the company is struggling and De Hann is doing it no favours.

Harmonica - I beleive the rules on buy backs are limited if share price moves +or - 5% from rolling average of previous weeks trading. Unless SP falls buy back will be on hold this week.

Sekford the sutely was the comparison
$5 Brent marginal $1.25 at effective 75% tax
$ 5 floor marginal $1.75 at marginal EPT of 35%.
I think you knew that

Sprights quietly watching - ggod day on your BP today !!
I think Saga normally under delivers on results day. I thought the TU was pretty modest and i'm hoping we have a changed approach of under state TU and over deliver results. Tommorrow should be interesting.
I've got skin in the game but modest !! Too many scars from previous encounters :) Good luck all.

Consider we are all getting excited by a $5 rise in oil price.
HBr keep 25% of that so 200,000BoPD at $1.25 = $300,000 to free cash flow per day .

HBR production cost = $17 at 200,000BoPD a floor $21.25 centres generates $300,000 to free cash flow a day.

Even a floor of $60 would increase free cash flow by 9 fold compared to this recent spike in oil.

Holding for that change to EPL is a massive reward strategy at these prices

Reporting OPEC voluntary production cuts of 750k per day. Should be a very good day Monday

Yes Lemming - oil prices closed at 79.9 Brent. Us inventory down. Godman Sachs bullish on oil. Could be a good week next week.

Thanks Helpful.
Certainly from 30 minutes reseach ALR looks quite promising.
I'm not sure on its own its enough to end the death spiral in terms of fund raise / dilution that is RRR.
Hypotheticaly if RRR went belly up (which is a possibility) would you be left with a holding in these companies - that is not subject to Diversified Metal acquiring assets for a song ?
My suspicion is unlike Spec Investor you are an insider and its a win win for you. Company does well or you pick up the assets for a song if it does not.
Nice work if you can get it and I wish you well.

600k shares nice rate. 3 million a week 12 million a month or 1.5% of company. Annularised rare of buy backs is 18% a year. Most aggressive I've seen and in time will refect in SP.
All this needs is patience
I know that won't come as a comfort for those invested at £4 but superb entry point

Fair point Norma
My main dig was at the joke post by troubled seller. Nearly doubled !!!
He clearly fell for the "bent " metrics our board provided showing production and reserves per share as improving pre and post deal.
Just an oversight that 50% of the consideration was cash and a debt transfer.

Alas Smith agreed.
Tim Wilding is right on the high price of share buy backs. Personally I would prefer a taper that above x moves the return away from buy backs to dividend. £300m would be a 10p share return - say 35% more than we get now. At £10 a share it buys 1% of the company. Not sure they have the balance right between buy backs and divs

Millionaire was our mega optimistic man - his city mates some may remember had a £25 target on this.
We also had a couple of interesting posters Valuewise was super clued up on Insurance and was proved right. Dofuswinchmore who worked for Saga and a lad whose username escaped ne but lives in the Hastings area used to work for Saga to. Great to hear from any of the old gang ? RTrader - I can see the makings of a party. And what about Horse**** keeper of the cruise bookings and old Salty captain Bird's-eye. And the Indian lad who liked horses. Any old timers there ?

Brent on move 79.4. Uk gas +10%.
Almost certain floor on EPL.
17% return at current SP via divy and buy backs.
I'm really comfortable with this share and at this SP is one of the best risk rewards I've seen

It has crashed on the last few trading updates so history is on your side.
The fact that they are reporting debt rising at the TU in the second half and such a paltry profit £25 despite cruising doing well shocked me.
Perhaps they have been ultra cautious [ the full year guidance was poor] and we are in for a supriise ?