Member Info for Banburyboy

For me the most important part is the promised ramp of Tailwinds oil assets following work in Dec / Jan. For me that's a key unknown and risk in the deal.
Hopefully it's on track and the step up in Tailwind production will be maintained.

Onedb by Libeterian I assume you don't like any type of state intervention. Fortunately none of the civilised west takes that view. Republican party in US might be a natural home for you.
Five languages all in code. can move anytime you want great income. Bit of a brager I would conclude? And you seem to lack balance Not projection (as you suggest) but a reasonable conclusion based on you postings.

Sounds good lets set it at £2 and offer an open invite ?

Long story but i'm closer to Birmingham now (Banbury !!!)
Was in a bar in Bham centre watching Liverpool ****nal.
Where's home for you ?
£2 party maybe - somewhere mutually closer ?

Fell after results from 137.2 to 114.6. Looks like its recovered all that now

AlnwickSorry to be a party pooper but :

- Your net debt of £554.2 is simply wrong. You are double deducting cash. Gross debt is £869.2m (£400m bonds and £469.2m ships) less cash £157.5m = £711.2m as reported !!
- Revenue growth completely skewed by Travel coming out of covid so not much of a metric. I would be worried about insurancee revenue £183.9m in 2022 down to £176m in 2023. Thats despite £10m more from travel insurance as covid relents. So motor insurance is falling off a cliff.
- They acheived the famed £40m a ship EBIT&D in half two and in previous years. Problem is when you deduct the interest and the depreciation (in the accounts) or the interest and loan repayments (in cash flow) the contribution is negligable £2-5m to both PBT and cash flow.
Ships will be mega profitable once debt is repaid butbthats eight years down the line - will they stay afloat long enough.

Interesting times and great to see a rise here but i am far less bullish than i used to be on this .

Molotov - you are deluded. Even on a small company like this postings on these boards have a limited impact on the SP.
Most on here are just normal people offering an opinion rather than an agenda. Armada clarification post was pretty balanced.
Most have skin in the game as holders and naturally want to highlight the positive potentially lots of oil. That does not mean they have an agenda its uncocious bias as they want to do well. There's enough conspiracy theory cr*p in the world without extending it to informed banter and debate on this Board and others.

BTI country report says the legal system is endemically corrupt and its corporate governance score is 2.65 out of 10 very low.
Despite the funds being held by a party who has no axe to grind even with a favourable ruling we can't get access. This should set alarm bells off.

Spec - the issue is DRC its more or less a failed state. Giveaway was RRR negotiating with individuals who had no delegated authority.. Burford recently won a case against Argentina which has far better corporate governance and they are allready having doubts about recoverability.

Three Duke- I think your last post was a bit hard. I can't work out what helpfulls role is but he is invariably polite despite some hard hitting posts on here from those that dislike AB.
For the avoidance of doubt I think AB is a crook.
Time will tell on RRR SP
For me little chance of DRC. Zimbabwe sounds more promising but will probably underwhelm and Elephant has been a long time in the making.
Definitely more potential than I've seen for a while and if I hadn't been burnt before see this as a reasonable entry price.
I think any rise will be sold into and it won't see 0.35 ever again.due to warrants/ dilution etc.
Interesting month or so

Hi Poker it's a standalone item in the accounts [cash flow section] for the last three/ four years.
Covid caught them with their pants down Tour was not ringfenced and Cruise was. They spent Tour funds on receipt on day to day businees and paying holiday providers. When covid struck they had to
- pay back customers
- pay suppliers according to agreed terms
- carry the huge overhead of back office staff and being Saga for reasons unknown did not use furlough.
Tour is now ringfenced and that means building up holidays comes at a huge upfront cost in 22/23. It won't appear in P&L but there large an ugly in cash flow.
I spent the best part of two years bigging up the potential of cruise and insurance and calling Tour a dog.
Cruise looks in good shape. Changed my mind on Insurance and Tour unfortunately its all hindsight.
I was advocating we gave it away three years back ! Happy times. And SP creeping back today which is good

Through £10 what a rise

Poker the suprise was they had to dip into £30m of the cash balance on 31st Jan 22 to pay down ships debt last year.
Suprise as cash flow for ships not covering debt repayments. Insurance performing so poorly it can't make up the difference.
On closer inspection support for Tour continues at ridiculous levels draing cash. This is because Saga needs to pay costs up front but can't release customer funds until they have had there holiday. It should steady up once they reach a critical mass of continuous holidays.
As I have said three years ago Tour is the archilies heel of the company. They have spent £250m nursing it through the pademic when it would have cost no more than £50m to shut down. For what ? Pathetically thin margins fraught with geopolitical risks. Tour is where the Board really failed. Had they made that decision debt would be £200m lower.
On the plus side Icecool did say it was volatile and yesterday and today look better.

Speculative - many will tell you he sold an asset in Greenland and said the money was in a Cypriot bank. Years later the asset appears in another company no cash to RRR. The house broker ascribe a 90% possibility of the cash being collected then again they have a price target of 2.4p of thereabouts. Many who have seen this for decades would apply an inverse of the broker target so 10% chance of cash appearing and 0.24p target.
Death and taxes are certainties but AB not getting the cash is in the opinion of many highly unlikely. Time will tell
April arrives and Elephant funding and Lithium sales are on the horizon so no need for any fund raises. Hopefully. :)

For me personally the results and the next week are a line in the sand. Like many I'm grumpy and unconvinced but today's news is a start and first target is £2.78 and the merger price. Good luck all

Thanks Norma
For me even with WT this was worth £3.50 - £4 standalone
Today was good news overall and should be a start in getting this moving.
I hope you are right.
Point taken Shakey but absolute is the way of reading across to deal in my opinion.

Norma - tounge in cheek but they do touch nerves.
The increase in SQZ reserves was greater than TWD. If they were plugged though the before and after metric the Board provided they would have made the deal less attractive [those bent metrics that exclude debt and cash consideration).
They further expose the deal for how awfull it was and the FY results will add more evidence.
And that's without Dicks point on Mecuria
Our Board should have commissioned and released this prior to the proposal. Now we know why they did not.

Ice cool. I think the wake up call for most on here was using £30m of 21/22 cash to pay off the £40m cruise debt they paid in 22/23. Despite a good year for cruise they leaked cash. Its truly awful. Agree price may float around but the last 4 Saga updates have led to a collapse so sell on news. I'm not sure it's a viable business - debt too high compared to cash flow and profits [something you sufggest we ignore )

Speculative on 12th December you said RRR has over promised and undelivered. That's why the price is only 0.36p.
The price less than 4 months later is half that.
I'm afraid you are in denial. You were right first time .

Snap indeed. Yes you called a downgrade on the party correct. £2 I think is top doller now.
Agree with everything you say. Cash generation is truly lousy despite a good year for cruise. The paid down £40m of ship debt in year but used £30m of cash from the previous years cash to do it. The same cash they earmarked to pay of the bonds. No wonder Rog has to backstop. Sprights I'm not see a case to invest I wish I was.