Member Info for Banburyboy

Hi Rox - it's deja vu you I and others have been here before two years ago I'm with volvie it's his 6.3p and not your 11.5p. Your 11.5 p ignores RDH take up and the take up or otherwise of rights issue by a holder.
The proof of the pudding :
Somone buying 15 shares for £30 on float
Those shares were in a bottom draw
15 . 1 consolidation means they now only have one share worth 93p
Translate 93p back to old money by reversing consolidation = 6.3p.
What's not in doubt is a float holder who did nothing is 97% down. 97% off £2 float price =6p

LTI -- I gave a list of market reactions as empirical evidence.
Those market reactions less mortgages available, higher gilt rates.. bank of england intervention all have real term growthbconsequences.
The prevailing evidence is any long term trickle down growth benefits have been subsumed by the inflationary impact of that same market reaction.
The benefits realisation table for Truss enomics is unexpectedly underwater in week one.
As her favourite economist said " I fully support the policy but concur it has been poorly handled" Forget the merits of the policy chancellors of all persuasion have been costing up budget initiatives and warming up the market pre implementation. In this respect KK and LTs political inexperience shines through and they have really messed up.

That's fine Gate but you must see all is not good here they have made some howlers
- not costed by OBR
- 45% rate abolition political suicide. I genuinely think that will go and won't pass Parliment
- failure to annouce supply side changes spending cuts at the same time.
-KK adding fuel to fire saying more tax cuts to come !!
Balance is really important and whether you believe in it or not it would be good to hear you agree it's been very poorly executed even if you think the policy intent is right.
I'm not a troll just trying to big up the standard of debate on the board and move it from trading insults.

GATE Empirical evidence from last week as requsted
1 - single biggest drop in £ since brexit vote
2 - highest number of motgage products withdrawn ever in a single day
3 - two and five year bond rates up 2 % steepest rise since Black Monday
4 - intervention by bank of england never happened following a budget labour or conservatives
5 - warning from the IMF.
Gate my old mucker great to see you asking for the evidence it's so important.
Please make a proper case for the defence none of this Cuba , socialist , corbyn abbot distraction nonsense.

Gate the point is you can't articulate the argument in a considered rational way without resorting to insults.
Take a deep breath and read some of the quite passionate and reasonable posts in support of Truss and trickledown economics.
Learn how to present that case and debate rather than insult others.
I have touched a nerve

Gate I've touched a nerve !! To be clear this isn't about your politics its about you as a person. You are very unpleasant.
No one else raised Socialists. Cuba . Corbyn or Abbot you did. Agree with previous poster you are ridiculous as well as unpleasant.

Gate I would reccomend anyone just spend five minutes skim reading your posts of the last few weeks. You have rubbished and personally insulted at least six separate individuals. We are all entitled to our views but as I said in my previous posts its not your views [ the far end shares them but is polite considered and articulate] it's you as a person and the stereotyping and insults that is just second nature to you.

Yes Gate brought in a few months back at 42p. These are interesting times for Lloyd's. Long term I'm sure it will do fine but slow progress.

Gate - most are not socialists. I've over the years voted for all three parties. I'm sure many other posters you tar with insults have to.
What I don't like is your lack of balance and objectivity - your blinkers are big ones . As a poster on the entire board you have the most closed mind and lack of balance of any other poster. You clearly wear that badge proudly.
Other supporters of Truss and the current situation make points far more subtely and without pigeon holing anyone they don't agree with. Could you learn from them ? The issue is less you politics and beliefs its how you present them and yourself.

Dofus - welcome back.
Long suffering holders know I would have closed Tour long ago. You have mentioned a Titan sale for a few years.
Pre covid Titan was allegedly worth £100m but had no takers.
A serious question but I think we would struggle to give away Titan so not sure it would have much impact on debt. Operating costs maybe but it should have been done years ago.

Cookie been here a long time and lost my shirt. Brought in pre results at 1.38 thinking this was good. Kicking myself as I did warn pre results on goodwill but £300m is massive. Delighted I got out at £1.17 on spike.
Agree on debt they generate enough to pay ships and £150m bond due in 2024. 2026 might have to be kicked down the road £250m due then. But at least rates on bonds and ships are fixed in these turbulent times.
My worry is base profitability seems to have fallen from £200M five years ago to £50m now.
Guidance for H2 - £10m with no coviid was awful.
Im not sure this will see £2 again in years.
The level of the goodwill write down was huge and I may be cluching at straws but is part of a wider strategy to take this private. The logic is insurance is only worth £400m I think they overcooked this deliberately subtract debt an offer of £1.50 - £1.75 cost to RDH £150m to £175m.
He would have his company back for £250m to £275m about a sixth of what he floated it for.
Lack of Director buys at these levels also very telling.

Theosus - on tax threshold I agree. An increase of 1k means the same increase of £200 to an individual on 20k or £2m. Very fair unfortunately its abandoned in the pursuit of reductions to the headline 20% rate.
If KK had channelled some of his enegys into that he would have an immediate impact for most rather than have to wait ten years for the trickle down impact which is immeasurable.anyway
No doubt OBR will tell him that just a shame he did not ask first .

Gate boy at the helm of the ship defending the in defendable.
Presumably ex bank of England governors , ex chancellors fed cheifs and the IMF don't know what they are talking about.

Thanks Theosus - unlike Gate your post shows balance. He,s a go down with the ship type
Very difficult to introduce policy at pace and ensure all necessary checks and balances are in place. Anecdotal evidence from other countries suggests a high level of Fraud no different to the level prevalent in the UK.
Think you are being a bit hard on Sunak in that context.
Liz dug her own grave on this and I hope for the good of the country she pauses the tax reductions pending proper costings.
Sack Kuatang and replace him with Sunak (if he would take the job) and watch the £ then. !! I say that as illustrative of his standing with markets which is high nothing more.

Gate13 - G7 Sam speaks more sense in his last post than you have in 4081 posts.
Truss is a chancer who is financially illiterate. Sunak has a proven track record and understands fiscal and monetary aims need to aligned. I genuinely believe Parliament won't vote this madness through .
Liz has two options
- u turn
- huge cuts in government spending.
Both of those will increase Labour's lead well above 17%.
Sadly as I have voted Tory this terrible woman and the aged membership have destroyed the Tory Party.
I thought BJ was bad but at least he had a credible chancellor at the helm.

Jo - I'm not so sure sounds to be like £20m to £30m is the norm. Sorry but the H2 projection is truly frightening particularly given impressive load factors.
They will probably over achieve but does not help us in the here and now. If RDH does want to take this private he's got his price £1.50 - £1.70 will be taken like lightening.

Lucky to tread water !! £1.08 to buy. This share has been a real **it show for anyone invested over the last four years.
For me we are post pandemic cruises are at "allegedly" £40m pre tax and depreciation per ship and they are lowering full year guidance to £20- £30m.

Unfortunately two big negatives
- headline loss basically saying insurance business is worth 38% less than six months ago. 38% of goodwill written off
- FY guidance was £35m to £50 now £20m - £30m.
This will do well to tread water today even though its very low .

Hi all - after jumping ship at £1.62 have brought in at £1.37.
I'm not as upbeat as I was but giving it one last chance at 9p old money.
Much of what will be in accounts was in recent update. Any guidance on £35m to £50m profit either confirming it or upper end should settle nerves.
Absolutely convinced cash position is fine and no fund raise. They have guided cash £20m lower than Jan because of ship repayments.
The one thing I fear will spook the market is insurance goodwill write down. It £718m on balance sheet. In 2019 they reduced it by £310m.
The review is triggered by margins falling from £74 a policy to £60 as market gets competative.
Insurance made £135m last year and margin shift will reduce it to £120m. I'm hoping that future profitability (£120m) supports the goodwill valuation or the issue is marginal so they leave open for future review the year end.
Long suffering holders need some good news

Lucky HBR does not have real net debt of $12bn. !!!
You did participate in the debate on HBR that concluded £11bn of that was an unrealised hedging loss that they have to report for transparency reasons only.
If it has any hedges SQZ will also have this entry and unrealised loss but NewKOTB has rightly ignored it - as being historic unrealised and neither use nor ornament to the investment case.
If you have as you say time on your hands please compare companies on a consistent basis. That word consistent is the bed rock of sound investment research.