Member Info for Banburyboy

88 it's called pragmatism common sense and political perogative. We will slowly re-intergrate without rejoining as there is no benefits.
The head in the sand boys will be none the wiser as we won't formally rejoin
I think the saying is " make the best of a bad job"
Keep up please I never said rejoin !!!

Classy post 88.
Can I quote you - "your view of reality might not be shared by others"
Population don't like Brexit according to polls experts say little or no benefit and you PMSL. As I began this post you are all class :)

Im a shareholder and think this will do well but too many head in the sand Brexit Turkeys on this Board for me to look in much
No evidence of any economic benefit to uk plc - lots of lies on £50m a day for the NHS and oven ready borders in the Irish sea !! What a hero and role model BJ is.
Hopefully BJ will be out on his ear soon and we Tory or Labour can rebuild relations with our neighbours and sand down boris excesses without going back in formally . Watch this space its inevitable
Last opinion poll
37% said we were right to leave EU
49% said we were wrong
14% don't know.
Most on here are swimming against the tide as the armies of 80 year old plus that carried brexit pass through the pearly gates and are replaced with the young and more enlighted.
Anyway ignore that I just thought the board needed some balance on posting ;) Sat on a loss at 44p but really think.this will be 50p after the next quarterly update. Best of luck all.

Buglet I respect your view and as you have said I have been wrong and you right.
However you talk in generalities with no specific knowledge - I have explained line by line why the negatives are not so bad or unlikely , covernents, rights issue, travel bookings, debt, insurance, inflation.
It's a bit disheartening to hear you say so much can go wrong with Saga with no specifics just your gut instinct and completely ignoring evidence
A lot could go right with Saga which I have posted well evidenced research on.
Time will tell but all you are going on is gut which is probably a sensible approach in this market but nothing more.

Would be nice to see and make me more confident on tommorrow.

Garygrowh no dragged down by markets in general. Covernents are on ship loan only. They are 1 x EBIT&D for repayments £50m a year and 2 for interest circa £25m a year. They could report a full year loss and clear the covernent which is a low bar.
All debt ships and bonds fixed at an average of 4% - great inflation hedge.
Update will be good and an absolute steal at this price.
I brought some at £1.46 13th Oct 2020. We are hugely better off than then £200m in bank ! Sold some five weeks later on 19th November 2020 for £3.34. This can move quick on favorable updates that's 128%.
DYOR but for a newbie risk reward is very attractive.

For what it's worth Poker the food , entertainment and staffing levels distinguish Saga. They operate in a premium market where price is not the be all and end all and post of the target customers have cpi linked pensions. I think they will maintain margins by increasing price.

Poker I don't think food or even fuel to a degree are material costs to this company. It stands and falls by per deims and capacity in terms of the Opperating model.
The Saga experience is built around the best food even if that's £20 per head (which is extreme) it will be closer to £10. The rise will add £2 per day on a per diem of £317 !! = Not material
Sensitivity is £1 = 300k per year so top whack 600k food prices
Be good to get this confirmed by Martins mate !

Buglet thanks.
As said previously lots of research has been done by myself and others. That research indicates we are turning and no horrors await.
For me if I'm wrong this time the boots will be hung up as I'm clearly not good at analysing this company.

Buglet I would define bad as fund raise covernent breach or goodwill write off or a statement saying they will have an interim loss. Then I agree.
Anything else is priced and it will stay static or rise. Good news on cruise, margins and retention ok on insurance and a reduction in travel loss and cofirm a return to profitability for interims on a good market day would add 25 - 30% from where we are now and start the recovery. Not long now !!

Thanks Buglet - I have been wrong many times with this share. For me if its really bad I will have to hang up my boots.
- confident on cruise
- no opinion on Tour but losses must reduce
- insurance some good posters (valuewise) reckon it could be grim. I'm not convinced.
- funding raise. Nil chance I will give up posting.
- covernent breach looks to me as they are before interest and depreciation we only need PBT to be nil. That would be awful but the bar is really low
Not long now and this one owes all of us

Buglet - my research on cruise completely backs up Magic's analysis.
Not being rude but read Alnwick's post of 19.33 it sums it up from my perspective and most others on here the fall..
Others have really researched this. You have not.
You work on a simple prognosis the market knows best which i concur is quite often right this time i suspect not.
Not long now but the evidence to me supports a little egg on the Buglet face may result.
I hope so :)

Thanks Value.
Covenants are
Ship - 1× capital repayment for PBIT&D - I make that £60m
2 x interest repayment for PBITD - again probably just shy of £60m.
These are not stretching particularly as they exclude interest and depreciation.
If they don't repay the £150m 2024 bond the RCF is pulled.
No dividends until £50m deffered debt is repaid. This is currently being repaid over 5 years.
All the talk of inflation is one sided- yes it puts pressures on operating margins but we have £700m of debt with an average cost of 4.5% which is fixed. 9% inflation erodes very quickly the value of the debt and interest payments and could be really benificial and a boon.
The three year fix is rolling so a third is renewed each year at prevailing premium rates. Its effectively cyclical so a locked in gain as premiums fall.
Again like debt their are two angles and it could be good or bad but it's not cut and dried.
Tuesday is make or break for me but I can't see any bombshells. The update will be cautious and report very steady progress.
My main concern is some sort of low ball offer or taking this private.
The wait is nearly over.
Good luck

Value note 29b sets out the reserve figure £284.9m .£140m of this pre dates 2018 and some is ten years old.
I concur releases will reduce but they will not be nil. The trading update won't tell us much its not something they normally refer to.
One for us both to watch.
Do you see value in the company at £1.80 are you invested ?

Devon we are on the same mind set. Had a pension payout and put a lump in here , HAR. SQZ both North Sea oil producers and SAGA which looks amazing value (update Tuesday will probably prove me wrong) The one I am most confident on is this and any gains on my others will be piled in here.
I don't see the risk - most of cost base is flexible and no debt - not many shares can hibernate and then wake up. 12% yield now and even with profits falling 20% its still 9.5%. Our paths will cross as we are both adding here and in for the long haul.

Devon - I would echo chamber your post. Down 15% on a sizable investment for me ( 10% when factoring in divi) really confident here.
Very worst case I would suggest is profits and divs down 20% in 2023 and that has to factored in at £18.50. Good luck all.

Guys I think you were pretty hard on Diandto if he's reading.
Fair play he's gone £1.50.
No reason that I can see for this to get personal.
Poker you post so prolifically which sometimes can be misunderstood as its hasty. Youve posted four times on this Board about oil and hedges and I have explained the bottom line sensitivity and hedges three times. I'll pass this time. Good luck to all on Tuesday. For me there really can be no excuses this time and I don't think there will be.

Diandto - indeed you were right.
You have not provided any specific company information and the price fall is markets in general and the perception Saga is a travel company.
Whilst I agree the case for waiting I believe Monday night is the last chance to buy in cheap.
The update would have to be absolutely awful to justify this price or a fall. I and others are expecting a reasonable update with steady progress.
To make it a level playing field in terms of company specifics what's your guess for closing SP on Tuesday ? At these levels mines +20%.
Granted you were right and I brought in too early but love to know your views on any company specifics.

Value couple of observations.
I'm anchoring everything at £120m for insurance as its the only evidenced comparative we have. I am saying I would be hugely disappointed if it was less than £100m in 22/23 - you seem confident in £72m. A 40% fall in the "value" prognosis.. The Banbury case for the defence is.
- insurance business mirror each other. Looking at other insurers no evidence of distress factors re 40% declines
- The CFO comment re no reserve releases is ambiguous and not in written presentations. Reserving is prudent and over the last five years releases has averaged £40m. Yes it may reduce but to nil which is central to your prognosis no chance
- We've been exchanging views since pre covid and you have allways been downbeat on insurance. Not a bad thing but the company seems to over achieve your expectations
- The market at the time nor this board reacted to the CFO comment when it was made. Its been dragged out as some reason for the appalling reduction in SP in the last three months which I think is solely down to market sentiment and not Saga specific.
- The finance costs are a mixture of bond issue and ship loan. Both are fixed. The outstanding bonds rose from £250m to £400m and the higher rate adds £12m. This is nothing to do with insurance per se. The rest is ship loans which will fall £2.5m a year as we have commenced ship repayments and principle is lower. The model 85% capacity has these funded by cruise.
I sincerely hope you are wrong on insurance its been the golden goose that's saved the company and has a goodwill value of £900m. Any numbers close to your £72m would require some serious consideration of an impairment to goodwill

Bullet- Dianto could be right but the postings do not have any single company facts. Perhaps that's where I have gone wrong.
Chances of rights issue or cash call - nil zero zilch. Even with the ships fully moored they did not touch the £200m in the bank.