Member Info for Banburyboy

3.56 This morning to sell for 40 minutes - did not move. Then dropped to 3.12 where if pattern of last few days is repeated it will stay until lunch.
I'm no expert but does feel like large buyer setting a floor on price.

Fair point Lewisham. The alternative would be to pull roll outs and conserve cash. I'm not sure that's in the interest of either LT holders or those in for a quick buck.
My perception is not many on here are mentioning a quick buck most of the conversation is on strange price action with MMs sweeping up shares at 2.8 - 2.9 as they are today. I'm no expert but feels like a background buyer which must be good for LTHs and those with low averages.

• Just based on twin cabins but as singles sell better this is conservative.
• 43 cruises – 308k of twin days across the year (444 twin cabins per ship)
• 84.5k booked – occupancy 27% as at April 11th
• Per quarter occupancy 32%/ 26%/30%/21%

Cruises doing best
26th September New England – 61% booked = standout
29th June Greenland / Iceland = 50% booked
4th Sept Cities of Mediterranean = 44% booked
28th July Iceland = 43%
None of the other above 40%

Of the 43 cruises 4 are 14 days to Baltics and one 22 to Eastern med – a long term horizon but limited exposure to today’s trouble spots.

What to look for as we inch towards interims in late September

South America explorer 12 Jan 2023 is 78 days!! Its just shy of 9% of capacity for the year on a fleet of two. How this cruise performs is crucial and including singles its 34% full

• 2019 interims (pre pandemic) they suggested they were over 50% of their target. Target is 85% so I think they were 43% booked.
• 2021 interims 59% capacity sold.

Target for me is 59% late September 22 (for 23/24 bookings). If we can get there, I think the omens are good. My plan is to update monthly to keep bulletin board members aware.

The static sell price is now up to 3.02 these shares are certainly not freindless

Toxic agree hargreaves landsdown has not moved from 2.9142 since ten minutes after open.
I to conclude someone wants shares so remain hopeful

Hello all

Have refrained from posting for a while as the cancelation of the Caribbean spring 22nd February did take the wind out of my sails.

As a 35-day cruise it was 35k of passenger days if fully loaded it represents 4.7% of entire capacity across a fleet of two. £8.5m of revenue gone if it was 85% full. I wonder if they insured themselves ??

The Caribbean was arguably self-inflicted but Ukraine not – some data below on Ukraine where I have compared bookings at January 24th when I recorded data with April 9th.

Based on the ten cruises sailing in April – June 22 available yesterday the ships have gone from 98% full on Jan 24th to 84% on April 9th. Four cruises hit hard:

• 27th April Baltics gone from sold out to 63% booked
• 24th April Croatia and cities of med sold out to 76% (this surprises me as it’s a distance from the troubles!)
• 21st May ancient wonders of black sea sold out to 83%. I’m amazed this is still going ahead – is it re-routed does anyone know?
• 22nd June capitals of Baltic 94% booked January to 64% now.

Far better news in quarter 3 and 4.
Cruise capacity in Q3 was 85% booked in January and is now 91%
Cruise capacity in Q4 was 58% booked in January and is now 68%.

Thankfully exposure in these quarters is limited to two cruises
• 31st July Gulf of Bothnia
• 25th September capital of Baltics
Both these cruises are taking a hit but to a lower extent than the nearer term ones.

What’s it all means for FY 23 (Jan 23 results).
• EBITD per ship of £40m each possible
• Cash flow at best will be neutral as extra £11m a year for loan deferrals (for five years) kicks in from March 22.
• We were cash flow positive in the second half of 21/22 but not repaying loans!!

Interestingly and I had not picked up on this earlier but in the TU 22nd Jan 22 they said occupancy was 73%. On 23rd March finals they said occupancy was still 73%. The cancelation of Caribbean and full refund was announced on 10th March so looks like the March 23rd update factors in the Carrabin and some of the news on Ukraine.

2023 cruise itinerary is out, and I need to worth through it. Key dates going back are:

28th Jan 2020 pre pandemic they said forward year was 60.8% booked.
22nd Sept 2021 – they said forward bookings were 59%
22nd Jan 2022 – they said forward bookings were 73%
23r March 2022 – again 73%.

What I will be tracking is the 22nd September benchmark of 59% four month ahead of the start of the year. If we can achieve that the good ship is turning.

Slow progress indeed

The market seemed to want to accept any amounts of sells at 2.8 most of the afternoon. Implies a background buyer and omens quite well for me.
Decided to hold my residual shares for the to be determined end game.

The new poster NOMAL has not got back but he could be right on big seller. Doesn't fill me with confidence. Averaged down at 1.2 (making average 5) sold 65% at 3.44 yesterday cutting my exposure here to just over £1k. Not feeling as confident as yesterday

Sell down from 3.4 to 2.8 in seconds. More not so good news ?

Have written to Harg Lands to get a vote. I only have 5k of shares (no) but there is a point of principle

Most on here are unhappy for very good reason. The Board are interested only in themselves and institional mates.
As Grumpus has said all we can do is vote against or no on all resolutions.

Hi NOMAL
Welcome to chat on LSE. Always interested in new posters do you mind my asking your interest ? Are you a shareholder ?

Your theory is possible Rath Dhu would be the obvious candidate they brought just over 3% in the bloodbath on 3rd March. Any holdings rns from them would evidence and at 2 -3p its 100% profit.
Being a long suffering holder in CNE where the major holders have bullied the board into alsorts of nonsense it would not surprise me.
I hope you are wrong.

Pleasantly surprised its 2.85p to sell despite RNS.
Feels like someone is interested in buying and sees value.

Yes rns we know no reason back to 2p

Price has crashed. RNS we know no reason ?

First brought in a 7p and averaged down at 1.2 so 3.9 average.
Morrisons in my opinion is a god send as they won't let McLs go bust. However the fact that the best shops are tied to Morrisons for years to come makes in unattractive to other grocers.
The debt / liabilities are £150m . Sales £1bn and profit £20m. A major could increase profit to £50m.
So not unreasonable the business is worth £200m plus.£150m clearing debt £50m 20p per share to shareholders.
Morrisons is equally a help as a safeguard and a hinderence to realising value.

Sell 3.21

Negotiated trade only

3.11 to sell

3.04 to sell