Member Info for Banburyboy

Working up through sell orders

Yes 2.4 to sell.
Very long wait for news fact that
1 rents were paid for April quarter
2 morrisons conversions happening at pace
3 loads of head office jobs advertised
Make me think there is lot of life in this company.
Seems like a great entry point to me. Lots of risk but at 2.6 plenty more reward

Shooting up now only 7p off strike price.
My view and this is not rose tinted is the asset value pre TO was much higher than £2.22.
However you frame it those that remain own more of the company , have higher asset backing per share because of pricing of TO.
In that respect I think the TO was great but I can't fathem what it was about. The closest I think is year end tax arrangements by institutions.
Good luck holders

Whitehat I do hope you are right and the institutional SH have been burnt to the long term benefit of those that did nothing like us.
Citywatch I to don't understand your post. The Board have clearly been led by the nose on the TO by institutions.
I'd we are £2.50 in a fortnight because they all called it wrong it would be delightfull

My simple take is we have reduced shares by a third at £2.22. And lost $500 of asset value.
Most on here saw value of £2.50 - £3.00 pre TO.
On that basis those of us remain I think are in a better position than we were previously.

Rox agree the paying down of debt is impressive. Do we know when the next annoucement is as I may dip my toe in again as I thing debt reduction will suprise a few

Sustain agreed. I am variously hearing on here :
-Lease quarter rents have been paid
- Numerous refits almost daily to Morrisons format
- Lots of head office jobs being advertised.
- No come back to the Sky story which suggested debt sold to hedge fund. That's six weeks ago and was cobblers as it would be notifiable if true.

Don't think we are out of the woods but just doesn't have feel like it's in immediate danger of going bust.

Hi Rox - I share a lot of posters optimism here but just a point on lease liabilities.
I'm not sure you can read anything at all into a reduction in lease liabilies.
The liabilities and the increase / decrease are more driven by the activity of the estates teams. If they have reviewed and renewed a load of leases with three years left on to say ten years then the liabilities will shoot up. If they have done nothing which is sensibly the case in a pandemic they will shoot down.
My understanding is the movement is unrelated to cash payments and paying down but rather renewals and opening / closing shops.
The measure is important when a company is in trouble on windng up as lease holders usually have pre-emptive rights over shareholders for all future years. I have a very small gamble on MCLS which is exactly in that position and the lease liability will mean in the event of bankruptcy which is a 50 :50 nothing for shareholders.
Nothing in my opinion in the lease liability numbers to concern or excite CARD holders

Helpful
It's sunny side up and optimistic. I used to think AB was Fagin but Wilkins McCawber was the the literary optimist so maybe he's a cross ?
Reminds me of the lottery you could make it good for 25k but the chances are slim of that $370m. Most on here have too many losing tickets, until one of his many irons deliver at scale and materially most on here will be skeptical.

RRR invests $25,000 in Lithium in Zimbabwe and mentions a working interest sold for $389m late last year. All sounds rather over played with a hint of desperation.

2.22p to sell.
News ?

Olmsey
I agree it's strange. The timing just before tax year end and the amount 49k which is just below the 50k annual allowance implies a pension contribution to a SIPP
That begs a separate question of why someone that wealthy would even bother.
Would love to think she read the board and brought because of the Saga lads (us) but doubt it.

Kind
I remain hopeful. I don't think the company would press ahead with conversions if they weren't confident in financing being forthcoming.
I can't see Morrisons taking the risk of admin.

I'm quiet nervous on the impact requiring paying of minimum wage to crew on UK based ferries might have on cruise.
Morally it's probably right but could be a huge bottom line hit. Legally I can't see any defence why should uk based cruises be different to ferries ?
Anyone have any thoughts

Thanks Value - I am much less gung ho on Saga prospects than the Banbury of old.
I see Tour and Cruise as very risky but Insurance as relatively bullet proof like Whale particularly with good retention rates and three year fixes.
Not sure the FCA review on new / existing customers had much impact.
What do you see as the insurance risks if you don't mind my asking ?

Pear I've had a number that have gone bust so they are out of mind and sight . Everytime I log onto my SIPP I see my £3k investment in BZT now worth £12.

Alnwick - not like you to knowingly understate Sagas potential. Insurance makes £120m profit not £50m.
They could sell insurance tommorrow for £800m. Evidenced by carrying value of goodwill and profitability.
The market unfortunately values Tour at less than zero and cruise as its debt. That's why we are £2.40 a share.
A lot of fall as RT says tied up in world events. We all got in too early !!!

Whale didn't see presentation but very comprehensive and considered push back. If they said they are on target for £40m per ship feel happier.
Jed this is premium brand £319 per deim. Look
at other company pricing. Our customers are not in the main influenced by price. Feeling safe and being assured their cruise will not change or be disrupted are far more important.

Trading update 20th Jan had for 22/23
86% load for H1 £316 per diem
73% load for H2 £318 per diem
Average load 80% for 22/23 which was excellent.

Latest update 20th March 73% and £319 per diem for 22/23.

So in two months we've lost
50k of passenger days @£319 = £16m
Say a cruise averages 2 weeks that 3.5k passengers.
This is not jut the Carribean which is disappointing but Black Sea jewels probably Baltics and St Petersburg.
They need 85% occupany and what looked a cinch in January is increasingly uncertain.

Very interesting. My view is Morrisons move and departure of CEO means there is considerable hope.
The question is around the sum of the parts if its £100m plus there is potential value for shareholders.