Member Info for Banburyboy

Remember Sky news a month ago said banks have sold debt. If true should be a RNS and company would not be negotiating with banks.
Really skeptical on Sky news sources

RDH absolutely bang on.
Frequent posters know I consider Tour a dog.
In good times 3% derisory margin. Wiped out by one off so Iceland volcano and Thomas Cook mean it made a loss in two of the three pre pandemic years.
To add insult to injury they did not claim Furlough - £30m down the pan on staffing costs.
Allegedly Titan is being prepared for sale. A poster called Dofus is quite informed. He reckons its worth £100m. I would give it away for nothing in a heartbeat.
Tour is and will continue to be a drag on Saga. Get shut and the recovery will be significantly quicker.
I hope we see a disposal soon even if we take a hit.
Love to see an RNS feels like 24 months wasted.

Called this correct at 8.29. Mirror image of preliminaries fall of 10% likely to close marginally up.
Results with was expected and very slow recovery.

Don't know if others remember but on preliminary results and trading update it fell 10% and ended level. Don't think this will end down more than a few %

Slow progress nothing awful in here.
One positive if 68% load and £299 per diam means cruise was EBIT&D was positive in six months to 31st Jan 22.
Then reported booking for 2022/23 at 20th March of 73% and £319 bode well. Shame about Carribean cruise

Toptuf - I read the ADVFN site just for intelligence.
I agree he is an absolute horror show and his comments are beyond contempt.
Is the site not moderated like LSE ?

Mind games RM.
£5 by July and York Station here we come :)

I concur with you to Jed.
No prospect of Saga going bust or a cash call in my opinion.
I was massively disappointed by the Carribean cruise the lost revenue will dent FY2022 significantly.
For me it was a final kicking and lost my enthusiasm somewhat. Still holding but £5 is long way away.
Good luck tommorrow not offering an opinion as too oftern I'm wrong and disappointed. Will this be the exception !!!!!

Thanks Habzey working the analyst says 2p is a market cap of £26m and quotes Jack Grealish leg as equivalent value.
The value is actually £6m so more like a foot.
Good article but didn't like the basic mistake !!!

I see no news as good news.
Morrisons aquire 450 stores at the end of 2022 and take on debt. Only a takeover achieves that certainty for WMs. Say 5p a share £14m plus debt £100m. £114m . £250k per shop / stocked fitted and paid for.
Pre pack admin guarantees Morrisons nothing and allows cherry picking of best sites by others.
My view is
Short term lenders agree extensions underwritten by Morrisons.
Longer term if sp is depressed and conversions prove their worth - low ball Morrisons bid.
The fact Asda were talking to them but walked away due to unbreakable ties with Morrisons indicate this is a value play at 2p.
I remain hopeful

Reading about NISA and Alldays. CO-OP brought the first for £143m and took on £110m of debt. It brought the second for £130m from the receiver and there was enough left over for 5p a share for holders (unheard of).
My point is there is value in the market even with debt and the two year pay back and 20% sales increases on conversions is excellent.
Word is Asda walked away from talks not because of no value but complications re Morrisons link.
My view is Morrisons can't let it go bust as they would not be guaranteed the stores that are converted so will be supportive and provide a lifeline.

Megla best to tone down the others. Appreciate you view on this

Other's have pointed out
1 - Catcher / Kraken is oil price dependent
2 - Senegal future payment is oil price contingent
3 - 33% and growing to 40% of Egypt is not fixed price and oil price dependent.
I'm a Chartered Accountant (a crap one) but statements 1 and 2 are 100% correct and and based on company announcements i'm at 99% plus on point three.
Could you play nicely and explain what is not true on these three statements ? I am really open minded and willing to change my view
Many thanks

Earlham- you figure includes lease liabilities as required by IFRS16. There is an equal lease asset. Others are right £100m of debt

Gordon good spot and not great news at all. I agree a circa £10m hit and might explain the SP being hammered

Dofus - I disagree
Cruise has allways had deposits ring fenced no issue.
Tour had to have an ABTA bond (insurance ) as the funds were not ring fenced. In practice if the company went bust insurance paid The first thing RDH did was to move Tour to a ring fence which it is now .
Pre RDH Saga were using Tour receipts as cheap financing. No issue if new customer deposits replace old ones but a real issue if as in March 20 no new deposits were received and the spent ones needed repaying. That is the single biggest issue a Tour balance sheet hole that led to the rights issue and RDH coming back to save us .
Support to cruise repaying these deposits has cost nearly £100m in cash flow. This is very different to the mothballed costs of staff etc which is charged separately.
Hope you are right on Titan value . I'm upbeat on the company generally but £1 a share for Titan ? I'm still on a nil valuation.
Thanks for the post though and really hope I'm wrong.

RNS on agreeing banking or support from partners I think will see 100% +

Horse long time no show for you.
You were the very first poster to start analysing bookings from their Web address .. when you dissapeared I took over the baton. Agree good entry price.

Yes Rogue - deliciously ironic on the name. Like you my thoughts are there to. What struck me is apart from a few "die hards" in the east virtually all the Ukrainian Russians are fighting for their country. Huge miscalculation by Putin just hope they can figure away out of this where he saves face and we go back to the status quo. Worried for all of us on what he will do if he boxed in.

Unhooked - 17% sp reduction on volumes of 1.2% !
This share is really volatile to ups and downs.
Presume not much of a free float.
I'm no expert but must be great for day traders. Buy into drop. Cash in at say 10% profit and rinse and repeat.
Strangely I sold £500 yesterday selling a few Saga and sticking in in Evraz. One is 16% down the other 70% up. Doesn't touch the sides of my losses today but oh for a crystal ball.

Homer - Saga is running out of options ? Can you expand ?
Insurance doing well
£250m free cash
Re- financed cash in bank to pay 2024 bond maturity.
Cruise booking at record prices £304 per person per day
Cruise advance bookings hugely ahead of competitors and its own benchmark
Second half 2022 transformation - break even despite Tour being mothballed
Back in profit in New year to 31st Jan 2023.
Five year plan for loan deferal at £10.8m a year
Protected by tonnage tax regime on profits on cruise - no corporation tax and that's up to 35% in April.

Don't get running out of options. Unloved and misunderstood by the market with a monkey on its back with Tour. But its been out of intensive care for a long time and looks pretty cherry and chipper to me.