Member Info for Banburyboy

Between you and Thompson you have it nailed with more than £3 and less than £3.
Spare a thought for me at £3.18 boxed in between Jo Soap at £3.20 and Bird's-eye at £3.17. I need a miracle to win this !!

Forgot beach

Rox £3.48
Sprights £3.32
Jo Soap £3.20
Banbury £3.18
Beach £3.08
Smorty £3 +
Olmsey £2.98
Jack Bogle £2.00

Rox £3.48
Sprights £3.32
Jo Soap £3.20
Banbury £3.18
Smorty £3 +
Olmsey £2.98
Jack Bogle £2.00

Olmsey yes FJ was well up on the buildings. He's not posted for a while.

Rox - you may have missed it but my reputation is in tatters - shot down by a poster called Lucretius.
I had misunderstood some key numbers and he was bang on the money to be fair . (target is 85% occupany and £275 on cruise)
Ali need now is for SIMES to follow you over from CARD and start picking holes in me to.
I will be even more naked than a man in Speedo's

Smorty i moved my 2k from CARD to WRKS just before results at 56p. Leaving it put far too many of these (by my standards ) for my own good. Might need a few cans tonight to relax !!

Beach three building were up for sale.
The 31st Jan 2021 accounts moved the net value £17m to assets held for resale.
There was no imparment indicating they were worth at least £17m
Sibley Parc'c are the agent and it was reported Middleberg square was sold
There is a lad from Folkstone who used to work for Saga and posted a lot on the buildings. His BB name escapes me but he has not posted for a whil. Perhaps he can help

Smorty close tommorrow £3.18. Just for fun. I will hedge with my pseudo account Jack boggle at £2 !!!

Insurance year to 31st Jan 21 was split £70m half one and £64.6m half two
Half one 2022 was £69m
The drop in H2 i seem to recolect was documented in one of their reports as lower travel and the sale of Bennetts .
Bennetts has worked through and travel insurance should be better in H2 - reserve releases are the unknown but comfortable with £69m in H2

Olmsey one to decide less support to Tour (BB) or more (L) ?

Lucre.
I am comparing half 1 small profit with half 2 which will be ?
All of your three items finance cost / depreciation and central overheads went through H1 and we still more or less broke even!!!
The debate is the incremental revenue and costs of sailing including advertising will it shift the numbers on a comparable basis by £11-£15m as you suggest or more as I reckon. I need Tour rebates to reduce to get to my £30m midpoint and more. Roll on tomorrow !!!

Hi Lucretuis
The wording on Slide 14 are ambiguous and there was no intent to mislead. Having reviewed this several times and proved the point backward to £40m through number of days x capacity x 999 passengers x per diems. I concur with you the modelled values are £275 per ticket and 85%. Great spot, if you are an investor it would be good to have you on board helping with analysis.
We can agree to disagree of PBT and EBIT&D. There are different ways of presenting this and in my line items (taken from interim PowerPoint) interest and central overheads are separate.
My predications and I stand by them are
- Circa 81% capacity booked for 2022 cruises which compares to 61% same update two years ago pre pandemic
- Half two profit you say £10-15m. This implies the impact of cruise operating and lower Tour support visa vs. H1 is just £11m -£16m. Take your point on just a guess and my £46m might be optimistic. Mid-point on our two guesses is £30m. I think that will be cleared but tomorrow will reveal
- No ship repayments so cash should grow considerably particularly as they book receipts two months in advance of sailing so Feb and March. So minimum of £185m could be up to £200m.
I hope you are invested as this will rise and good to have someone on this Board who may challenge / validate my excesses!!
Also good to see you at the York Station party
A suitably contrite Banbury Boy

Baysil - I've allways felt you "sitting" duck target for TO makes sense and is rational. The point you make about 2 directors in excellent something changed their plans
Feel more comfortable now with my holding even if I don't get current low valuation and will stay holding until this pans out receipt of cash , tender and or takeover.

Tender offer is a complete new one for me - very weird !

Hi Lucretuis not much of a vote of confidence.
Slide 14 of 4th November presentation is key
Note 1 model is on 80.2 % capacity (not 85%)
Note 2 per deims were £235.
They were highlighting with 85% and £275 how well discovery bookings were doing . So sorry you are wrong on that.
The difference between EBITA and PBT consists of three items depreciation £8m , finance cost £8 mand central £4m. If you ready post carefully you will know finance and central costs are doubled up elewhere making a half year a full one. I concede you are right on depreciation which I tend to forget as its non cash. So a little slack there. Proof of pudding Thursday
Thanks for your post. BB

Perturbed I would probably agree.
In September the Board set out their stall for a "transfomational" half two. With cruising not impacted by Covid all the dots are in place .
They have five years to pay £52m of deffered ship payments from pandemic and were forecasting reading £100m 2024 bond from available cash.
You won't see divys for a while but strong cash generation, debt reduction and £150m plus profit before tax.
Best of all negligible corporation tax which goes up to 35% next year as we are in tonnage tax regime.
Maybe not £6 in 2022 but possible in Jan 23 ?

- £46m profit in second half
- available cash £185 to £200m. Outside of bonds and ship debt
- Cruise occupany for 2022 81%
- per diam £300
Be interested to see how I fare

Laughton. I had the same concern but they are operating at 100%. We have vouched that a few months back and tied into RNs.s
The main issue is around single / double occupancy. They have 111 single cabins and 444 double (999 people on a full ship)
Singles sell much better than doubles and on some cruises they rebadge doubles as singles. Martin Palmers (a poster on here and his mate was on a recent Carribean cruise where they did that. Question is we need £600 a day from those singles to maintain very high margins. Think we may possibly drop to below £300 per diem in the interims But still very good

Beach good to see you back not so sure about Jack he's not the most cheerful of chaps.
I'm pretty convinced my analysis has been more or less backed up by Co,s rns on cruise bookings so feeling chipper about Thursday. In the interims they described H2 as transformational. Can't see anything obvious to derail that.

First half accounts to 31st July 2021 showed a £1m profit - £69m of insurance profits subsumed by travel losses, finance charges and central overhead. Cruise reported loss for first half year was £35m.
Second half all other numbers remaining equal and cruise will move from £35m loss to a £40m profit - £20m per ship for the half year. The company has said they expect £30m of covid and advertising costs to hit in h2 The company has said ships need to operate at 80% capacity and £234 ticket sale per day for £40m PBT for each ship. We know from their numbers that capacity is 80% + and ticket sales £305. So, the company will make conservatively a £46m profit in the second half (this is merely replacing a £35m cruise loss in HI with a profit of £40m in H2 less £30m of exceptional). This is an annual £150m whilst providing £30m of support losses to keep Tour going when removing exceptionals .
With no ship repayment until 30th June 2022. Cash flow will be excellent
• Available cash at 31st July £175m
• Insurance as HI +£50m
• Tour injection as HI -£20m
• Cruise income £85m (very conservative and confirmed in Sept 21 – plenty of sales since)
• Cruise margin from ship presentation - £45m
• Finance charges - £15m
• Buffer and cap ex - £15m
• Exceptional - £30m
• Available cash 31st Jan 2022 - £185m minimum could be £200m
Forward sales on cruise for 2022 are exceptional and my calculations suggest the £40m per annum per ship PBT could be circa £59m per ship in 2022.
- Capacity closer to 90% not 80% adds £10m per ship
- Average revenue per day £306 model says £245 and each £1 = 300k. But lots of inflation /covid costs so take half of the £61 or £30 to profit = £9m per ship
Assuming Tour still shut this suggests PBT could be £190m in 2022. Price earnings on 2
I have reviewed latest bookings until yesterday.
Eleven months to December 22 overall bookings 81%. Quarter 2 to June is standout with 98% occupancy Therefore, I am comfortable on exceeding cruise earnings. Next two months are 83% and Q3 is 85%
Quarter 4 lags Oct – Dec and is currently 58% booked– but this has not hit peak booking season.
Overall, for the whole year we are at 81% of all capacity booked for 2022 as of yesterday. To give context
- 22nd Sept 21 RNS – 59% and £306 per passenger (now 81%)
- Pre pandemic 28th Jan 20 RNS forward booking 60.8% and £259 per capita. The announcement Thursday will be 81% and £306
I have absolutely no doubt in mid-February the price of Saga will be significantly higher than now, and the market has missed the incremental contribution of Cruise which results from sailing very busy ships with customers paying a premium.
In addition Tour whilst a drag is not material and sustainable. Fill your boots at these prices