Member Info for Banburyboy

Sorry for double post looking after noisy grandkids very distracting !

Sprights you like your takeover speculation. As previously nil chance but a possibility Roger may take it private.
Leon - Thursday will be excellent. Looked at every cruise this morning and very good news. Insurance steller, tour burn reducing as legacy deposit spending works through, and cruise bookings phenomenal in terms of capacity sold and ticket price . Will post later but this half to 31st Jan 22 will be transformational for Saga and anyone buying in at these prices will be handsomely rewarded.

Sprights you like your takeover speculation. As previously nil chance but a possibility Roger may take it private.
Leon - Thursday will be excellent. Looked at every cruise this morning and very good news. Insurance steller, tour burn reducing as legacy deposit spending works through, and cruise bookings phenomenal in terms of capacity sold and ticket price . Will post later but this half to 31st Jan 22 will be transformational for Saga and anyone buying in at these prices will be handsomely rewarded.

Nice jump up to 67.2 to sell soon be top of leader board. Good call guys as I followed you.

Smorty is bang on the money. Half year ebita £2.5m full year £15m in the RNS. So company is saying £12.5m in H2.
What I like is the pre covid comparison six months to 31st Oct 19 ebita £4.3m loss now £2 5m profit.
PBT loss £8m now £1m.
All of this despite freight issues minimum wages rises.
Company is also cash generative and Pbt can be misleading with £18m cash a 4-5p dividend £3m cost is possible

Reads well to me. Interesting to watch SP. I thought Card read well and that fell 18% so not counting my proverbial chickens BB

Rox I brought Card at 49p and 63p roughly 56p average because of your ramp. Sold half of card yesterday and in here. Second time lucky I hope for you.
My big day on ramps Thursday next by true love Saga.
Last update read well but short on detail. My gut tells me this will go up as update had post covid trading way ahead (card slightly lower) and margins feel higher as does transaction size.
Be interesting tommorrow

Good question fdpc. I ask myself that often :
- Nostelga from his early days ?
- intrinsic value as a loss leader
- positive synagies I'm not getting . Cross sales on travel insurance the obvious one but maybe others.
- too expensive to shut down
- I am completely wrong and it's not a dog at all. My basis is profit as a % of sales has over the years ranged from 1-4% so its at supermarket level. World events seem to destroy it profits Thomas Cook, Iceland volcano .
BB

Click Rns 17th November. Confirms purchase

He brought shares. Look at the actual RNS . Site is wrong.

Sprights as previously highlighted unlikely to be taken over as no natural fit three arms insurance / travel / cruise is pretty unique.
Best you can hope for is an activist investor who lobbies forb a break up. We had one of those with Elliot and they could not convince the Board to go down that route .
Plenty of value here but not in takeover. Value will come from
- continued strong insurance operations.
- the realisation at the TU that cruise has turned corner with extremely strong forward bookings high occupancy and high per diams £305 per person in last update.
- Tour is a dog. But realisation that it's not material to the companies results whether it trades or not £30m loss when shut maybe £5m profit if we are lucky when open.
Trading update should confirm most of this and move us away from the current valuation which is based on a distressed travel arm being a significant part of the company. The reality is we are 80% insurance and a significant part of our 20% travel arm has been doing well since June 21. Banbury

No claims on Furlough. I was outraged at the time. All the betting shops claimed but not our travel agents. Opportunity missed or corporately responsible ?
Ship repayments commence quarterly in June 22.. £51.8m in total was deffered and that's payable over five years . Repayments for next five years are £54n and for next seven £44m. Repayment over twelve years.
Occupancy of 80% and ticket prices of circa £260 per person per day cover loans and mean a small £10 - £15m positive cash flow. That's +£2m for every percentage above 80% and 600k for every £ above £ 260. Expecting 2022 to be pretty prosperous . No corporation tax as Saga in tonnage tax regime and liability is buttons. Bit us badly in pandemic as losses are not allowable. Law of sod you win some and lose some.

Rupans you have been here long enough to know this. £69m in interims x 2 = £140m. Crude but accurate.
The sum of the parts valuation is dragged down by Tour which is a basket case and should be closed . The perception of cruise is also poor £500m debt burning a fortune repayments on hold for 24 months.
What this TU will indicate is Travel is 80% cruise and that business is emerging in great shape. Tour is 20% and being carried but not material. So the company is 80% insurance 16% cruise and 4% Tour. Its being valued as a travel Co rather than an insurance Co and most of the travel is trading well. TOUR is a dog but a broken toe not a broken leg in the Saga body
To be clear £4 is where I think we will get after TU.
Next step is £6 and York Station for my party . Hope you are right on the bigger numbers but don't think valuations like that are appropriate to a hybrid Co. But could be wrong !

Guys to a degree scrub those comments. I spend a lot of time talking about leases and went onto auto pilot.
The main reason that the cash flow looks so bad ( numbers are fine) is its taking the worse possible start point FY21 a horror with a loss of £16.4m PBT. ( see link to Note 21 )
For FY 21weknow the interims PBT loss £6.5m. Trading is in line with comparatives second half say £40m = FYI profit of £33m .
That's a £50m difference and all available to pay debt.
You've take cash flow and a start point that is not typical.
Apologies to mess people around on leases which are a cure for insomnia.

I said IAS 38 lease accounting was confusing !!
The intention was to bring leases where a company exercises "control" onto the balance sheet. So all the properties or right of use are shown as assets and all the future payments liabilities. Its equal and opposite asset = liability and can really confuse.
For profit and loss its confusing as bringing an asset that you don't own but exercise control over on a balance sheet generates a large depreciation charge which is consequntial on the leases. non cash and of no consequence. You don't replace leases through cap ex .
The company is very cash generative that's what attracted me. If it doesn't pay dividends the £60m debt will be gone by next year irrespective of cost pressures. Might not be as profitable as it was but with no debt this is worth £1. Only risk is market for direct high Street sales declines . That might happen but I don't see as a risk low single digit decline at most.

CVB- couple of observations
1 Cash movement to £60m looks fine to me. See my posts. The comparative validates it and is audited so don't think that's a worry.
2 Think you have double deducted leases. IAS38 I is meant to simplify lease accounting I'm not sure it does The rents are before ebit&d . Depreciation is a non cash cost so the £41m does not impact on your poit three which knocks onto your other conclusions.
I have no problems with the company but agree with others it been presented as pessimistically as they could which is strange. Long term hold

Billybob.
I agree see clarification post. The point is the same. Cash generation is down 12 or 15% dependent on whether or not you add back deferals. Like others think the fall is overdone but that 12% gives a handle on cost presures. Question is how much is temporary (shipping / covid) and how much permanent ( minimum wage) BB

Lse Town doesn't much alter the point I make about comparative period. If I add back the £13.2m deferal in the prior period debt is reduced from £142.5m to £87m so £68.7m. Compared to your £61m so 15% reduction falls to circa 12%. I was trying to get a handle on cost pressures BB

I'm not sure if this has been covered but was looking at cash movement between identical periods
Oct 21 £108.4m Dec 21 £60m . Reduction £48.4m
Oct 20 £142.5m Dec 20 £87m Reduction £55.5m
With like for like sales flat the cash reduction of £7.1m or 15% might be indicative of cost pressures.
Like others I don't think raising prices is the worst strategy but pressures could be perminant. BB

Sprights old timers on this Board- also known as the party at York Station when this hits £6 have been round this quite a few times. The reported offer which is not formalised was as you say 36p was pre rights 8 :15 and consolidation 15: 1. Key fact is the then potential offer valued the business at £400m. Roughly where we are now. However this was before the £140m fund raise. In terms of the period since March 20 to July 21 the company has more cash (very marginal) as travel / cruise burn is covered by insurance.
Trading update will highlight :
- Insurance steller £140m pbt
- Cruise transformed very high per diams and occupancy @ 80%. First half loss of circa £45m being a profit of £15m in second half (would be £45m but company sighted heavy advertising £20m and set up costs to reopen £10m.
- Tour - reduced burn down to £2m a month as legacy issues from spending deposits work through and less impact moving forward.
Trading update off the back of cruise resumption for H2 will be good and this will move up to £4.