Member Info for Banburyboy

Taverham you are right on cash / debt but much of the change is acquisition of Wendy.
If I had brought it above £20 I would be agreived but my take of the RNS is the fall was overdone. I also think a clean break is super decisive. I brought at the bottom on a hunch having thought this looked attractive before bad news.

Dividend yield 3% . Proposed buybacks.
Hopefully market will be impressed by decisive action and fact that the remaining business is extremely strong.

They must be pretty confident 30% hike in dividend and considering a share buyback. Jury's out on what will happen today but my bet is closing SP £ 12.50. Watch it collapse !!

Goodwill on acquisition of helmets and armour was £18.7m. That's highly likely to be written down in accounts resulting in a loss. Tommorrow will be interesting

Vendric - you said your cruise had 715 passengers. The website pre departure showed only 26 cabins available. The ships hold 998 passengers. Do you know if they are opporating at full capacity or are they mothballing cabins for covid and only operating at 80% ?

Thanks Vendric great feedback.
The company said September its ticket sales were averaging £305:per person per night. They said this was 19% higher than pre pandemic.
Protocols will cost but probably more than covered by premium customers willing to pay for them. Enjoy the cruise and thanks for feedback.

Invested £100m for 36m shares at an average of £2.71. He's now down £7m.
Compare the company then to now. !
- Cruise booming
- cruise profits not taxed (tonnage regime)
- Insurance steller covid dividends
- Tour legacy spending the deposits worked through so no more one off hits
- Non ship debt down £170m from pre pandemic
-£250m cash war chest
- Bonds refinanced to 2026.
-Directors are required to invest as part of the remuneration committee process - watch out for more director buys pre Xmas

As we drift down to 16.8p old money consider :
Prior to cruise
- customers need to provide a digital vaccination certificate
- are recommended to take a lateral flow test
- cannot use public transport to arrive - either drive or chauffer.
- Chauffer and you wear a mask - this is free service up to 250 miles each way
- tested again on arrival prior to boarding .
- UK only departures
On board
- mask wearing when walking around and in Theatre, fairway and card room
-no mixing in cabins (not for swingers !!)
- no more than six people dine together
- no seating at bar
- in library books board games and computers out of use re covid risk
- can disembark independently but under review
Coming home
- both pre departure and arrival covid tests done for you at company expense. Arrival test e-mailed within 48 hours
- no quarenteen as not going to red list countries.
If you have to travel and mix this has to be the most hassle free way of doing things.
Mr Market is missing a trick i can see no circumstances given the above where UK cruise departures with the safeguards above will be suspended.
On the contrary as other forms of travel become more uncertain and risky customers will gravitate to cruise.
Opportunities like this don't come often .
Tour burn is £2-3m a month and covered by Cruise earning "super" profit as occupancy is above 80% target and ticket prices 19% ahead of pre-pandemic.
If cruise can continue for 2022 and you have seen these protocols cash flow is the same as pre pandemic with the shortfall on Tour covered by the extra margins on cruise.
Keep the faith guys - you will love the January update. Both cruise booking and the reduction in net debt.

Yes six months at current rates for £20m and three years for the $200m £130m.
Doesn't seem a strategy that is short to medium term !!

RH I'm still laughing at the well oiled in speedo comment. One of the top put downs (in a nice way) I've ever come across on the LSE board.
I'm with you on this

RH correct £10m fees to raise £140m. So 7%
That was a raise and consolidation so probably top end.

Poly - yes I racked my brains for ever on that. Main riders are :
1. Covid stops 2 ships sailing -that's a game changer.
2. Covid delays tour for the foreseeable future. This is a nuisance but survivable. Burn is £2-3m a month. I have wanted them to sell / close tour for years as margins wafer thin. Still not too late.
3. FCA review of insurance regulator takes exception to our market defining three year deal. We would know that by now so unlikely.
4. £150m of bonds mature in 2024 and £250m in 2026. Not long term and recovery needs to underway to renew.
5. Ships and bonds aside they have a £250m war chest.
6. We are taken private with low ball offer high % of shares in institutional hands. So possible
7. I have something horribly wrong when I calculate occupancy on website. But my figures in June and September were close to companies announcement.
7 - Cruise pays corporation tax on tonnage not profit and the amount is nominal 100k a year. This cost us money in pandemic as cruise losses not allowable but mitigates massively when corporation tax goes up to 25% in 2023 and profits go through the roof with high occupancy and daily sales £305 per day..
This is completely a risk play on ships sailing. If I was honest I see this as an opportunity.
- Chauffeur home to ship
- vaccinations mandated
- cabins easy to isolate
- doctors on board.
- 100% uk departures
- company manages pcr arrangements leaving customers hassle free.
I know I am biased but surely Saga cruise is the future for those wanting to travel and the last type of travel to be cancelled
I've really researched this from every angle and am super confident

Cruise - sailing since May 21
At the January 20 trading update - capacity was 61% booked and the then one ship had made its £20m ebit&d in the second half year.
On 14th June 2021 - forward bookings for two ships were 48% sold out
On 11th September update forward sales were 59% sold out. Prices per person were a whopping 19% higher 426.000 passenger days paying £306 per day.
So on the 11th September 21 bookings were at 59% for the 2022 year were nearly comparable with January 2020 for the 2020 year. FOUR MONTHS EARLY !!!.
My research on cabin availability shows
Ten of 46 cruises - fully sold out for 2022.
I think we are currently at 83% full.
These figures are startling and I expect to see a huge re rate if ocean cruising is not hit my the pandemic.

SP awfully but fundamentals of Saga will support a huge bounce in January update. In 2019 the update was 16th Jan 2020 28th Jan and 26th Jan 2021. Time to be in is before update :
- Insurance stellar and stable £80m cash flow policy count and margins holding up.
- Tour needs support for a long time but burn £2-3m a month when legacy deposits work their way through
- Net debt (excluding ships) £391m Jan 19 / £359m Jan 20 / £247m Jan 21 / £227m July 21. All rights £140m and disposals £16m used to pay debt cash flow broadly neutral in pandemic with insurance covering travel. Ship repayments on hold till June 22.
- with ships sailing and no capital repayments I'm seriously expecting net debt to be less than £150m this is a seriously key number as with £400m of bonds they have £250m war chest.
Cruise to follow.....

Ronnie I can your figures they are indeed the ships one in 2020 and one in 2021. They won't reappear as we have a spanking new fleet of two ships. They are shown as investing activity . The corresponding loans are shown in financing activity. Numbers of that size and scale won't reappear unless they add a new ship to the fleet. That won't happen for a few years and if it does we will be £8 +

Volumes picked up. Anyone any ideas on the two 70k share trades. Like you I'm quiet hopefull here.

Thanks Ronnie.
Your post is a strange one.
The company is cash flow positive see July interims.
The ships are not cap ex they are leased with a view to buy. Payments are deferred to May 22 and payable quarterly for ten years. The balance sheet shows the ships as an asset and a corresponding finance lease liability. These numbers will fall proportionatly over 10 years
To service both capital repayments and interest and make £10 profit before tax per ship they need 80% occupany on each ship and per diem ticket price of circa £250. Latest updates suggest they are ahead of this.
Accounts can be heavy reading the PowerPoint for July 21 on their IR sight is a good read. Good luck with the investment.

Yes phucket. You would have thought our advisors would have realised £20m was pretty ambitious given all the legal / statutory constraints on buy backs lunchalot has raised. Wonder how much we pay them collectively for their advice / expertise ?

Woke thanks for the up to date info
£2.5m brought in 20 trading days.
Equates to 140 trading days (6 months) to do £20m
Approx 4 years to do $200m following India.
Slow burner completely overstates this !!

RH keep up the research. I any most on here find it really interesting. I'm just as "sad" on research with my Cabin counts on Saga and have only been "put down" once nastily by a poster. Completely independently you've guessed it our man Jack Bogle.
He.'s got a "victims " club as long as your arm and nowt positive to say or add substantively on any share.
He does say he never talks to stupid people so you are clearly doing something right.