Member Info for Banburyboy

I have a really modest holding and think (1)this has £10 written all over it. (2) would not be surprised to see a HFD bid after strong results today.
On H/ L today spread amazingly is only 5p 618 to sell 623 to buy. It can be as high as 40p.
Considering buying more if my CNE comes good.

Thor / Ant i for one do buy the takeover argument . To me the value on acquisition is :
Cash as at now £2
Future income flows from on going operations lets say a conservative £100m per annum discounted at 20% so £500m = £1 per share
Benefit to aquisition vehicle of cash - forgone interest payments on debt / bonds again a conservative 5% = £100m five years £500m = £1
Contingent money from Senegal and NS not factored in
I'm not for one minute suggesting £4+a share but at £2.50 to £3.00 a share this is an extremely attractive target.
I'm with Baysil on think a TO could happen and an offer will need to made before distribution.

Thanks NicName
Links nicely to another poster who asked about the inflationary impact of claims. Direct Line sight a 3-5% increase in claims costs above their expectations. My take is fairly sanguine :
- Saga does not underwrite much business so pretty limited impact
- 60% + (and increasing) of our premiums are fixed for three years. In the same FT article it mentions premiums are down 7% this year (due to lower claims). The fix insulates Saga to a degree from both lower premiums and higher accident costs.
I am a Saga fan and like to be balanced and i think this will hurt us far less than other insurers for the reasons stated. Banbury

To give context on 76% load factor booked for 22/23 as at today 9th November

- 28th Jan 20 - annoucment for 20/21 pre covid 60% (we have ten weeks to go for that comparison
- 14th June 21 trading update - 48% for 22/23
- 22nd September 21 Interims 59% for 22/23
- 09 November 21 Banburyboy 76% for 22/23
I'm keeping the faith.
Longer term key is how many of what will be a bumper crop of cruisers in 22/23 will return for more and spread the word positively ? Could be a golden opportunity for Saga.
For me i would love them to ditch Tour and concentrate on Cruise.
Good luck with your investing

Completed the full set so Quarter 4 - October - December is 10 cruises occupancy rates a much lower 55%.
For Q4 two Xmas cruises are at 75% and October in Greece 85% - the remaining seven are mainly only 30-40% booked.
So overall for 2022 its 46 cruises and 76% booked. If we add in the five cruises this year it adds it up a notch to 77% for entire know schedule .
77% forward booking on 9th November for 14 months feels pretty good to me

Thanks Martin
For 2021 - five cruises left next one SoD 21/11 and SoA 20/11 both Caneries !! One of the five sold out. The position on the five is 88% sold out. You would hope we could clear 90% + overall ?
Very confident on ocean cruises and we have a good year ahead.
On river cruises its impossible to do a similer analysis but cant see why they would not do similarly well.
Be nice to have an update from the company as these are very good figures

Guys i have managed to recreate it for the nine months to 30th September 2022 and am pretty confident on completeness.
The latest scores are
Quarter 1 2022 - Jan - March 10 cruises 2 sold out. 76% of total capacity booked
Quarter 2 2022 April - June 12 cruises 6 sold out 94% of total capacity booked
Quarter 3 2022 July - September 14 cruises nil sold out 79% of capacity booked.
Overall for nine months 82% of capacity sold out.

To note
- target model is for 80% capacity so this looks good
- capacity is based on cruise days so longer cruises have more impact
- the late cancelation of the grand South America Tour of 90 days is acting as a drag on QI position
- the four cruises that replaced South America are 62% booked. The longer available cruises are 87% booked hence the lower average of 76%.
- Q2 and Q3 look excellent
- If they can nurse the four late cruises in Q1 up to 80% i think that would be very good to.
2022 definately looking good for cruise

Gooner are you sure ? Some big gaps on this for Discovery e.g Jan to March looks like it might not pick up all cruises particuarly the sold out one. Thanks Banbury

Gooner in the working man's club and had five pints far too much for me but it certainly looks good.
Where I live Blyth must have 40k population and I know because we have listed them 31 working mans clubs as the tag says Oxfordshire born but home and the heart is in the North East

Large back page in Times for 5th Feb Northern lights headline rate £250pppn.
Next week going to try to recreate my bookings data which was really close to companies figures. Only thing I am missing is sold out cruises as they are not on booking site anyone know where I can find a complete itinerary

Hi Mango - I think your worry is a fair shout and it had occurred to me. I'm relaxed as

- whilst cyclical by naturec premiums are currently falling . I seem to recollect 7% so a lock in at a fixed price is good for Saga.
- falling premiums in part are less driving due to covid but in the main tougher whip lash regulations as such the fall could be permanent
- the fix is dependent on no claims / change of circumstances. So if you added your boy racer son .the fix would lapse.
I can't see any downside risk on the three year fixs and with 60% of policy holders now on them I think they give huge forward certainty to the business.
The concensus on this Board before is that customers are paying a little more for the fix as they get a premium service, a fair and certain price with no rises and here is the key - avoid the need to do a comparison sight renewal every year which does not appeal to many.
Lance Batcheler the previous CEO did not do a lot for the Company but I think his crowning achievement was launching the fix in mid 2018 following "extensive" customer research. It would be really interesting to see how many of the first customers to do a fix opt for a second three years as I think we can truly say they are lifers .

Protect my point was simply he can't be expecting the SP to materially rise else he would have held fire.

Three Duke 19 likes !!!
I was in here 2010 -2013 lost loads and look in occasionally. Can't believe Bell is still here 12 years latter. Where's Mr Magic he used to keep great records of how much shareholders have lost

You could not make this up as part of his personal tax planning he has sold 500 k. !
Presumably to avoid tax on the special dividend.
Clearly he's not expecting a take over or significant rise in the SP as if he was his tax planning would be to hold.
Madness

Great to have some positive movement £3.21 to sell !

Oogle you posted 25th October 12.27.
There is still a bit of a misconception about debt. The bond is fixed at 5.5% until 2026 against the assets of the ship.
You later posted debt was circa £200m
The misconception is your understanding of the liquidity / debt / capital position.
Let's leave this and move on we both think it's undervalued which it is

It touched £3.16 briefly really hope the £2.95 earlier this week was the bottom

Oogle all accounts are based on a set of principle and standards of economic substance rather than legal form. Those standards require any leased / contract / hire purchase assets to be disclosed along with the corresponding liabilities. They are presented this way to give the readers of accounts a more transparent and full picture of the companies position nothing more or less and being on balance sheet does not infer legal ownership.
So Saga does not legally own the ships and nor are the ships security over the bonds as you have suggested. If Saga was to go bust the hierarchy of asset realisation would be (1) secured loan takes priority - they take ships (2) bondholders have whats left (3 ) shareholders probably nothing. My post correcting you got ten likes and was polite. My advice is move on as you initial post on here was wrong and your follow up is also wrong.

I'm tempted to say Jed told us so !! But frightened of the board reaction.
I think we are allowed a bit of self deprication and gallows humour as long standing board members

Saga lowest since Feb 19th and below 20p old money. Rupans one for all and all for one you need to take that Metro profit to support the price.
Seriously looked at the year chart on here and the bar chart showing volumes has completely died in the last few months. Still don't think there is any fundamental issue just a lack of interest