Member Info for Banburyboy

Beach / Accepted I agree I thought it was good and reccomend posters click on the link.

Looks like the rebranding has stopped the rot !!!
This should be the time when I dust down and post reasons to invest in Saga for newbies but I've lost my data base grrh..

British bulls still staying in cash. But I quote here "one inch away from going long" Even I can manage one inch well maybe once a week

Beach doesn't quite feel right. 10 months to September say average cruise 17 days. Say 36 cruises. 11393 implies at 998 per cruise . So 316 per cruise so 31%. I'm assuming the 11393 must be bookings not people but brings it up to 62% . Not sure.
Titan margins zero so not on my watch list.
Do we know figures for saga River cruises ?

Beach sorry I meant atol. Will try link

Poker correct but add the similer figure for year ended 31st Jan 21 and you get to ball park £120m. Its been tapering off more recently. !! I was mega disappointed by the £19.9m as logically they must have spent that well over a year in advance of the hols as they started ring fencing 18 months ago. Question is how much more in the second half ? Another £20m and we stay in rut - nothing and we are really in business on recovery

Poker at least with recent tour bookings its ring fenced so they haven't spent the cash which is why we are in the cack !!!
For those who are wondering if companies spend ring fenced tour receipts they need an abta bond.
Reimbursed spent receipts funded from rights issues and bond issues proceeds £120m and counting. Pretty niche but to me how much more of this is left is key to this company. For the accountants I think this is a contingent liability but they have seen fit not to disclose it as such. As such guessing how much more is guesswork.

Beach I hope you are right when it moves it does move fast.
Been crying for the last week. I had kept all my Saga cruise analysis on the desktop of the works PC. Went into work for the first time in eighteen months Monday last week and anything on desktop was wiped. You know how sad I am and those records are my life. I will have to pick myself up dust myself down and get on with it. I now know how Matt Hanco*k feels

Oogel are you sure on misconception ! Lots doesnt stack up in your post.
1 -The bond is unlikely to be secured on the ships as they are not ours. We owe £295m on SoA and £245m on SoD
2 - based on 80% occupany and target diams we have £45m per year of ship.repayments and £16m finance costs. Cash contribution according to the company is £9m per year in good times !! . Agreed it goes up significantly if occupany levels and ticket prices are higher
3 - Tour is a dog which generates no cash flow.

You are right on cash but travel and cruise are no great shakes as stand alonevcash cows. They are very thin
I would describe it as insurance is super profitable and when travel begins to tread water we can use those insurance super profits to pay down debt rater than bail out travel.
We have the same conclusion but a very different journey in reaching it.

1.975 to sell. Definitely moving faster than usual

Poker I am taking them at their word on per diems that are published in the accounts. They say something like £304 for this year and £308 for next. Would be a bit rude of them to gross up any discounts !!

Well i brought another 3,000 at 1.92.
My calcualtions are
India $1080m
Cash at June 21 (including sale consideration) $341m
Defered consideration Waldorf $455 - $273 = $182m
2021 take at 60% over $52 $100m based on interims and $85 oil on second half

Total $1703m = £1,243 = £2.48 a share cash

Slow and Steady nothing i am aware of . Saga down 15% from 368 on Sept 27th. Admiral down 8% Aviva 1% and Direct line 3%. Easy jet down 9%and Carnival down 2%. We seem to have been battered.
Iceland on 19th June just sold out. That's six cruises in the first half of 2022 sold out. Next is St James 13 April 6 cabins left and Greenland July 17 cabins left. Assuming these go that's eight of seventeen sold out.
The above analysis excludes the four Jan / Feb cruises that replaced South America and were announced in early October. The two to the Canaries were heavily discounted in the Saterday Times - £210pppn.
The four cruises are shifting well and at 48% booked which is good for just three weeks.
Just have to hope the market turns soon

The price reached £2.15 late December 2020 driven by arbitration panel favouring CNE. Oil price WTI was $42. We are now at £1.90 SP with a settlement close to closing and oil doubled. Most other oilers are up significantly in same horizon. Tempted to buy some more tomorrow. Hope their is no sting in the tail that I / other investors are unaware of !!

Saev and Ant thanks for your really knowledgeable posts.
On Egypt am I right in saying there is no real up or down side to prices as its all fixed price. ? How long does the fix go on for ?

I think total fuel costs are £10m based on $80 oil. Derived from the 2019 ship presentation.
Fuel hedges at 31 July 21 were £0.4m ((Note 12).
In terms of total operating costs on cruise fuel not too material. But not a lot hedged unless they did something after July.
Interestingly they have loads of foreign exchange hedges in relation to the foreign currency of Tour.

Should have read £175m in bank 31st July
190 cabins on the other shifted in the week to the 12th October

Poker good balanced posts. Reasons to be cheerful and hopeful
£175m in the bank in May. So they could pay back that £85m.
Cruise bookings for 2022 i have as 74% full (85% Q1 86% Q2 77% Q3 and 47% Q4). This excludes the South America cruise cancelled and replaced by four others.
Those four cruises have been available 2 weeks and are 43% full already with 190 cabins shifted up to 12 October.
Per diems £259 pre pandemic. Increased to £294 for the June / July sailing and £302 in 2021 forward bookings and £306 for 2022 forward booking. This is £47 or 18% which is phenominal. Each £1 is 300k per ship onto the bottom line
Capacity way higher than they have ever been and prices based on per diem way higher
Nominal corporation tax payable as we are in the tonnage tax regime.
Downside
I concur Tour burn of £2.5m (based on segment operating loss of £16m in the interims ) but should easily be covered by cruise .
The elephant in the room is deposits on Tour we have blown in earlier years. These were £19.9m in the six months to July 21 and i a hoping they will work there way through by year end. Once these have gone i am really confident.
Definately a long term hold and any investors at this price will in my opinion be well rewarded

Jed I gave you a serious and researched answer to your question re inflation based on the companies own sensitivities and costs. The impact is very minor . Unless you have any specific Saga info (good or bad) this board is very objective don't think it's worth you posting.

Rox - keep looking at this. Cash generation is really good. Nearly took leap based on Shoe this morning which operates a similer estate and market. Waiting for Cairn to formally agree India settlement price is now £1.90. £2.80 per share is backed by cash. Valuation seems crazy. Might buy card.
Saga my main hold as you know looking dire but will come good. You got a reentry price on the good ship Saga ?