Member Info for Banburyboy

I have pencilled in £100m profit at the interims. This is a 40% hike on last year and would mirror other insurers. It reflects low claims from driving ( covid) and prior year releases as whiplash etc. less household claims ( benign weather) and staff working at home dividend.

Cruise 2022 year
As at 18th September 20,958 capacity on cruises and 6,176 left so we are at 70.5% capacity.
This is split Q1 77.6% Q2 83.3% Q3 74.2% and Q4 46.3%
To give some context against the 70.5% this year.
- 14th June 21 trading update 48%
- 19th Sept 2019 interims 50% we are way ahead of a normal time comparison
- 28th January finals RNS 76% bearing down on this with four + months to go
Since I started monitoring on August 2nd we have shifted 32 cabins a day. Three cruises of the 42 now sold out 21st Jan Caribbean, 24th Feb Artic and 26th May Fjords. June Iceland and Corsica down to 14 and 10 Cabins available so nearly sold out. Five of 42 sold out in September!!!!
Best of all occupancy for first three quarters averages 78.4% just shy of target operating model of 85% with higher per diams !!

Rob I hope you are wrong.
I have pencilled in £100m profit at the interims. Based on no write down surprises as goodwill on (travel is Nil) and like other insurers low claims from driving ( covid) household ( benign weather) and staff working at home dividend. Cruise bookings are buoyant and the cash flow should be 31st August which will include 5 months cruises as £ are moved from eschew account 2 months before departure. Key is how much of this is built into the SP ? I hoping we will hit or close in on £4 again after results as we are still seen as a travel Co?

Bird's-eye have you been on the Rum. Mary is a new poster from yesterday. She called Saga and they gave her all sorts of information.
She talked about last few places for cruising over the next to months. My observation is they are moving ok with the exception of the Baltic one. Hope this clarifies and you may be right on the bookings but it all we have. I'm hoping at this price we attract a few new holders !

Beach.
I plan a mega analysis of cruise bookings just prior to results. Hopefully allow some to make informed decisions but also to test the theory. In the main do available cabins o the website reflect ALL available cabins or are some held back. ? Mary 2021 is OK but not a sell out Baltics struggle in 2022 also.
My dad allways said it was St Ledger day. He also said allways back top weight in a 5furlong sprint. When I was at Uni I was young and stupid (as opposed to old and stupid now). I put my entire maintenance grant on Shergar to win the ledger. It was beat 4l I think by a horse called cut above. Hope I'm more lucky with my faith in Saga ! Enjoy Donnie

Good post Seav.
I called one to five on in terms of a settlement two weeks ago. I suggested Board would act in our best interests. Listened with interest to postings but allways thought where we seem to be now was a pretty close to a certainty. I'm hoping we have enough leverage to extract a little bit more than annouced. Possibly some legal fees or preferential treatment on some future India investment.
I,m a non exec and for me business is about balancing risk and reward. A settlement does that.
For those on here who bemoan going back into India the reward is high and the risk NIL. Nothing against Egypt on balance but that one does carry risk.

Ant not on line and following closely. Can you clarify refund in a few weeks and a mistake not quite understanding that . Really appreciated. Thanks

Hi I like
Not the same company now with Lindon.
I'm expecting quite big things. May 21 guidance increased FY PBT from £310m to £325m. I think £350m is entirely possible.
Dividend cover they are aiming for 1.75. I make that circa £165m for dividends. 222m shares.. 75p a share 6% yield and 25p interim div 50p final.
Nice rise into results.

EC if you click on CNE share news icon on our page. Second article in says Tuesday looks like a late change

Thanks Millionaire I hope you are right. I know beach can't hold much longer after the update so for him in particular and of course the rest of us

They rebaselined but promised a progressive policy. For interims it was circa 1% so expecting similer on 48ps

Jo I think it's quite good now I get it.
This sad old git (me)has nothing to do but bore everybody on Tour and haunt the cruise website.
I'm actually dead busy on central government business - fat controller and nhs where I am a ned . But find this board and all the Saga mutterings provide light relief :) from all that

Bird's-eye you could a lot worse.
My only worry that I bore everyone with is Tour. On a positive note its not river cruising Tour I see that as being low risk and potentially profitable. Its the long haul group stuff which is low reward and very high risk. Hoping for really good interims not sure if the markets have priced it in. So 40% increase in insurance PBT and fantastic bookings on cruise means what for the SP. Struggling with the what value.

Sorry rushed before posting should read £45m capital repayment and £16m financing charge.
Aug 21 cash position which they might reveal at interims should be great with 5 months cruise revenue booked (June 21 to Oct 21) with no capital repayments or financing charges.
We need this good news to get the SP moving

Baltic 193 not 1993 !!
Target capacity 80%

Birdseye - as you know i'm looking at 2022.
I did look at this Croatia one way back in April when the capacity was 80% and it was one on the better seelers with only 25 cabins left (in April against 80% so am hopeful)
Sept 13 Iceland has 90 cabins left, Sept 20th Baltic 1993, 5th October continent 115 oct 10th western France 95 oct 24th Croatia 102 and Mediteranian Oct 28th 147 (this last one was only announced recently so will lag.
I make that for the next six cruises 75% capacity and counting - not spectacular like 2022 but not far off of target.
Remember the target which is around £10m cash a year from both ships on an annulaised basis. But that is after paying £45m of capital repayments and £16m of ship debt and is real progress.

EC option 4 the law has changed and IG has seen and acknowledged its error.
I don't see the fact that IG has made a reasonable offer to Cairn and we are playing hardball having any impact on foreign Investment they have changed their ways and enshrined it in legislation.
Options 1 - 3 all offer certainty and closure. Option 4 sorry is reckless and always has been in my opinion . Back down to £1.25 until someone snaps us up on the cheap and does the deal Option 1-3 we should have done in the first place. Not a great outcome for shareholders as it drags on for years or we are snapped up cheapily

Baysil - as its your last post just to say I found all your posting really insightful so thanks. I brought circa 1,000 shares back on first India news and went through special dividend and consolidation process. Watched it fall and fall and kitchen sinked (for me) another 4,000 at £1.33. Not oftern I pick a winner and for me the decision is when to exit. I thought maybe £2.30 - £2.60 but now I'm wondering after great posts on here. I do need a deal as if EC is right and we choose to battle this in my opinion SP will collapse he will I am sure argue it will be short term but my guess and from what you suggest it's probably years. But good luck all whatever is in store. News with interims Monday ?

Rags you are missing the point being made.
To a highly leveredged suiter a cash shell is seriously attractive. They are not interested in the assets.
It will be funded by a share issue at a discount and the resulting balance sheet will look a lot tidier.
Makes perfect sense

Emerald - I am pretty confident you won't like the outcome. Outrage / moral high ground / stubborness / inability to move on are not traits our advisors will have.
They operate in the here and now and the best interests of the company. Baysil is well versed in this and has told us what will happen he has experience in this field. .
I only hope you can move on as you will not like what is coming. Most on this Board will be delighted and the SP will be north of £2.30 on €1 - €1.2bn with future sweeteners on the rest.
As you say IMO