Member Info for Banburyboy

Hi Beach - I to find the price promise strange.
Just looked at the terms and conditions.
It only applies on like for like cabins which limits rebates and allows some flexibility on rebates.
It also seems to suggest if cabin is assigned on embarkation at a cheaper price its doesn't trigger the promise.
The last point gives them plenty of wriggle room and might be why idad is seeing volatility on cabin avaibility. It's also arguably sharp practices.

Half page in telegraph £43,500 what with that and price promise we might need another fund raise.
Look out for it in the interims

idad their not particularly good but I think it's because they are UK. Still we are sailing and getting cash in. Two weeks ago I posted on every 2022 cruise and will look to review and post. They need to carefull on discounting as the Saga price promise commits them to rebating passengers all ready booked. Beach will know more but the price promise must really restrict flexibility mean no last minute bargains and make it difficult to allways hit full capacity .

Live Sp £3.92 is a 10% gain on my sale last week 6th August to buy Cairn.
Volumes really low but SP seems to have traction .
I think someone said low float and presumably volumes drives volatility when we debated last time sp was going down.

Emerald- night HAWK energy had an FD called Swindells might be the same guy they went bust. One of my biggest losses

No worries Gooner my track record is more of a mug punter than a trader. !! Interesting post on cruising. I'm hoping the interims give some more detail on unprotected rebates to Tour customers. Once these work their way through cash with cruising starting , buoyant insurancece (excuse the pun) things should look much brighter

Idad the 15th August cruise had 188 cabins left which I thought quite disappointing not sure how long that one has been marketed . Hindsight is a great thing and no criticism intended but we're we sailing warmer climates I do think they may have sold more than UK only. Hopefully it will pick up

Emerald you have said that in numerous posts and your view is understood. Let's see what happens ? But if you gave me even money Emeralds hold out for $1.7bn or go with what the new law allows and $1.2bn. I think the clever money is on the lower number. I think it at least 5 to 1 on personally. Time will tell.

My view for what is worth we take the $1.2bn and move on. It removes uncertainty and we can move on. I will be surprised if that's not the direction of travel.
I could see that lifting SP to £2.50
Anyone know what tax is due on settlement . My gut tells me as confiscation triggered a capital loss and write down this reverses that and no tax is due. Really welcome input from anyone on the board who may know more.

FJ nor correct on my personal motives. How long have you and I posted for ? As Rox says this is my beloved Saga and I'm all in wont be selling until £6 -£7 all or nothing . I sold about 8% of my holding for Cairn and yes I got very lucky a one off not to be repeated diversion.
What you are picking up is my thoughts around posting objectivity , I was reaching out to one of the two posters who has eye watering targets for Saga around any doubts they have.

Alnwick I am aware of that and thought others might find the info interesting. Unfotunatly none of those companies have a dog called Tour which drag s down valuation so your comparisons need to be cautious. Insurance will do well we can agree the unknown is Tour which I think will continue to haemorrhage value and cash . Your views are very optimistic do you see any negatives or risks or complete plain sailing ?

Hastings interim profit £76m (£54m) = 41%
Direct Line £370m (£265m) = 40%
Admiral RNS £450-500m (£292.3) -- but they did rebate £100m last year so -- probably 40%
Saga £70m last interims 40% = £98m
Probably priced in......

Far end sorry I'm assuming the 100m is £ so share float is 30m. Is that right ?

Scooby possibly because they don't have a basket case of a Tour operation and also they are heavily dependent on United States covid regulations which are driven by individual States. I think the comparison is overdone.

Scooby possibly because they don't have a basket case of a Tour operation and also they are heavily dependent on United States covid regulations which are driven by individual States. I think the comparison is overdone.

All I mentioned the other day without company specific news the SP is going nowhere. The days when virus sentiment and general news caused big changes in the SP seem long gone. Long wait until the Interims and they don't typically issue more than the single trading update. I think I will join Rouge and hibernate

Guys calling Cairn two days ago is a never again event. The realisation on news was brilliant it came from India and the market slowly woke up I just hope my luck rubs off on Saga - Tour sold tommorrow ?

Thanks white hat and mrc. When you say the gas price is fixed is that in pertuity and do we know what the fix is ?
Will look at website but as you say sounds complicated

Hi All

I am thinking of toping up my investment here and wonder what I am missing

• India is well documented
• Mexico news is good and Surinam is a potentially game changing exploration area
• $570m in bank at 31st Dec paid $250 in specials reduces this to $320m. Cash inflow last year with low oil prices was $240m so after seven months safe to assume 7/12 so another $140m by 31st July . So potentially $460m in the bank no debt
• Sold asset for $460m with contingent payments of $75m at POO $60 and $125m at POO $65.
• Brought assets for $323m so $137m of proceeds unused.

My analysis of the disposal is 21k of production a day with extraction costs of $19.73pb. Gross annual profit $309m per year before cap ex (at POO of $60)

The acquisition has a Cairn interest of 33-38k of production per day but two thirds is gas. The costs of production are $6. Using natural gas prices which are on the up a barrel of oil equivalent sells for $24 (oil is $60). Crunching the numbers at the midpoint the gross profit before cap ex is $389m.

So the acquisition is cheaper and contributes more $80m per annum to the bottom line. But will be sensitive to gas prices

What I am looking for is advice on the downside and risks – I know Egypt is risky but accepting that does anyone know much about thelocal tax regime / royalties are these far worse than the North Sea?

Given everything above the market capitalisation of £621m or $863m looks very low and feels like a BUY

Banbury

The most interesting aspect of DL's results is the impact of benign weather conditions on half one. The previous half year weather claims were £30m this period they were only £3m. This was the principle factor behind operating profit o home increasing from £39m to £74m.

Saga has a a fairly substantial home insurance book none of which was underwritten. Gross premiums are 30% the level of Direct lines. Profit for the half year to 31st July 20 was £14.8m --- if it mirrors DL we should see that almost double .

Agreed these results omen really well - just need Tour sold or given away announcement and we may have a lift off. :)