Member Info for Banburyboy

Both - i know you look around a lot and interested in your views on Cairn Energy :

£655m market cap
No debt £150 to £200m in bank
Just swapped 22k of barrels of oil per day in old North sea field for 50% shell field in Egypt. Adding to production and pocketing 10k
Oil prices on the up and contingent payments not capped from North sea deal if oil prices high
Succesfull spud yesterday in Mexico interest in Surinam which is a high play area
Theb ig one $1.3bn claim including interest $1.7bn against India for unfair taking of assets. Ruling binding as highest International court and company considering seizing assets. All signs are India want to settle and start point is £300m half of market cap
SP very low despite a wealth of good news and high oil prices.
Bitten the bullet and sold 1,500 Saga shares and gone in here.
Hope i wont regret it - welcome your views guys

Idad - nice idea but my understanding of the Saga price promise is if we discount we will have to offer it to all on a cruise. So will need careful pitching and handling.
Beach - look forward to updating in Sept / October time. I've got eight grandkids and one and one on the way great grandkids - not bad for 59 !! Wont be running to book a cruise.
Alnwick - £15 you and Millionaire are the Boards eternal optimists .

Tour is a dog and interestingly Beach who is in the business agrees - margins awfull and risk too high no one has offered an evidence based rebuttle of this. Cruise has potential but we need more hard facts.
The SP has not hit any highs with good news on the virus and the resumption of sailing which many said it would. As Rox says lots of bargins out there and Cairn energy jumps out to me. Thinking of selling a small amount of Saga to change my arm there
My sights are still on a rather more modest £6-£7 and i am a little disappointed by recent SP action.

Over the weekend I looked at data on all calendar year 2022 cruises. Sad or what

A total of 43 cruises and I weighted capacity according to the days of each cruise. Assuming cabins available are fully disclosed and 100% capacity 998 passengers. Both big if’s

Overall it indicates 2022 64% booked which is pretty good and indicates some of my assumptions might not be great. I work on financial modelling in my day job and as an audit chair in my not day job and there is an old adage “something may be wrong but if its consistently wrong its right”. What this means is data flaws do not impact the trends in the data which are still valid.
So trends from this

• Full capacity on all 43 cruises 338,000 cruise days & target £234 per diem = £79m.
• Sailing every day of the year full capacity is circa 728,000 days. So lots of gaps in scheduling to choose what sells
• 64% split 69% Q1 79% Q2 66% Q3 and 43% Q4. Beach welcome views from an agent on that
• Q1 impacted heavily impacted by 83-day South America tour shown as 61% booked. 20k cheapest ticket
• Top two QI Caribbean Xmas and the Artic both 90% booked
• Top two Q2 Fjords and Corsica both 90% +
• Top two Q3 Greenland 85% booked Spitzbergen 79%
• Top two Q4 Greece 76% and a Caribbean Xmas 77%
• Short cruises and GB and Ireland probably do worst
• Definitely Artic places do quite well. Hopefully they clock this for the capacity they have not released !!

Clearly they have lots of capacity still to announce and the company and this data seems to suggest 2022 is not looking too bad.

Hope others find it interesting and welcome observations – Banbury

I prefer evidence and research. Seems plenty of glass half full and rose tinted Mr Micawber observations - something will show up.
I hope so :)

Alnwick I hope your right. But not sure the evidence is compelling. Beach take up on the August staycation cruises seems really poor to based on cabins available. Better picture at later dates which I will post later. Beach welcome your views on August can we really shift the capacity ?

Guys the price action since the resuming international cruise announcement seems to support my view we are going nowhere without company specific news.
Beach i had a quick look at availibility on cruises and i must confess was underwhelmed. Particularly on August 21 UK sailings - i know they are recently announced but...
They look like they have reset the bookings to 100% capacity so i might have a go at tracking availibility over time like i and others have done previously .
Be good for the cruise supremo to come out and clarify why the TU had 22/23 48% booked and he five weeks later was boasting of a great 45%.
Both these will be baseline for research and if i'm coming up with 65% all well and good if its 50% well it might explain why the SP is not reacting.
Hopefully collate something for next week
Banbury

Beach interim results rns September. I do think any exceptional up tick on cruise is market sensitive and should be subject to an RNS.
Can't see without an RNS a huge jump over the low £4s that others are suggesting. I hope I'm wrong :)

I think only a positive RNS will materially move the share price. Looking for an RNS building on TU :

- Further progress on insurance £74 margin maintained with continued high retention rates and more three year fixes
- working from home dividend from closure of main buildings
- Cruise booking TU indicated 77% booked 21/22 and 48% 22/23. Uncertain as to if this is against 80% or 100% capacity. The cruise MD added to the confusion by saying bookings for22/23 were 45% a month after the U update. Either lots of cancelations or mixed currencies
- cash position on 31st May we had £78m. Not withstanding bond issue at 31st July we should have substantially more with cruise Revenue booked two months in advance so August and September now released.
My main worry is Tour .. burning £7m a month Jan - May £28m in total a combination of
(a) normal operations (b) legacy issues where we have spent the customers money and it is due back.
No clear breakdown of how much of the £28m relates to (a) and (b)
Good to understand the quantum of the liability on legacy issues and what normal burn is on Tour.
One aspect of the RNS that would send the SP up sharply would be a confirmation that we have sold / given away r divested ourselves of the tour operations.
A lot to wish for but my perfect RNS

Sorry should have 2222/23

Oogle they said on 14th June in the TU that 48% of cruises had been sold. Five weeks later and this guy says its 45% !! Good if they could stick to one script one set of numbers and RNS price sensitive information.

Thanks Rox been doing similar for 20 years but this year (I'm 59) me and the guys are feeling it. Not to concerned by the fall :
1 - insurance is a sound business and not impacted.
2 - last rns said they were booking cruise revenues and as long as we can cruise ( I see a return to not cruising unlikely ) travel as as a whole is cash generative.
3 - the only thing we don't know is (a) tour how many receipts are due to customers or if they travel to hoteliers where the cash is spent (2)on going burn on Tour ignoring the rebate issue.
Anyone,s guess on the rebates but I don't think ongoing monthly cash burn will be more than £3 -£4m which will be covered by cruise and mean travel is cash generative.
I see no prospect of us going bust and travel might be better than the market thinks as 80% of profit is insurance and 80% of the 20% that is travel is cruise.
Premature to get out now and with cruise operating I think we can survive indefinitely.
With some big hills in Pembroke this afternoon not sure the same applies to me.

Guys still checking in. On day 11 of 15 cycling Wales. Started Chester and heading round the coast and back up middle to Shrewsbury. 412 miles down whole trip about 700 miles. Picked the weather but hard work with heavy panniers.
Trying to stay good to my word and not rant about Tour but I can't see any return to normality and hope management bite the bullet and sell / close it. I have warned on the Tour risk wafer thin margins high risk low return for ever. Cruise on the other hand is low risk fairly high return particularly as its seen as a safer form of travel. Still holding for £6 and we will get there just slightly faster if we shut down / sell at a loss / give away with a sweetener Tour.

FJ if we get to £5.50 first week in August i will be over the moon. But i do agree we should have a boost as travel opens up.

IMB - dividend rebaslined down to a realistic £1.31 circa 9% yield. £3bn debt reduction in last year - no core disposals plus dividend saving it was £2.10 until rebaslined a year ago.
Not particularly ethical but solid 9% yield and prospect for capital gain. Top of my list when Saga hits my exit price

Sum really good post and think your numbers are spot on.
- Correct on goodwill. Down the allotment at the moment but i think headroom from the auditors 31st jan calc was circa £200m.
- profit and cash flow are two separate things. I think our cash trails profit signifacantly due to loan repayments which probably drags the valuation down.
- i am sure you are right the rebating on travel must end soon. I guess i got grumpy as i thought that in January and it continued feb - may.
But overall yes i like the companies prospects. I,m more for the short term as pent up travel could see this fly in the next year or so. Im less confident long term as Tour does suffer from unfforseen events.

Fair point Rogue. I will wind my neck in. Ive said my peace on Tour so give the "woffle " as one poster calls it a rest . Good luck all.

808 welcome. Whilst im massively negative on Tour and the deposits issue. It wont sink the good ship Saga. I see nil chance of a company collapse. What the Tour deposit issue tells us is we are not as yet on cash positive even if the ships sail.
I am in here for £6 and i thik that is possible and Roxbury has called that to. I had thought £9-£10 was possible but that has no chance based on what i can see now. The entirity of the fund issue has now been spent re-imbursing Tour customers for there deposits we burned pre pandemic. £80m for corporate purposes is the give away in where we are now from the funding rns . For the more rose tinted on here our golden goose of £15 has flown. We are not a lame duck (going bust) but a run of the mill overweight racing pigeon burdened by previous management decisions. But £6 is good and bring it on

Thanks Gordon - let me try and explain this another way.

Up until June 20 - Saga spent all the Tour receipts when the customer paid us the cash (not when they had the holiday). They covered there tracks by using the latest deposits from the newest customers to pay the opperator costs of the older customers. The ponzi / Pyramid scheme came to an end when new booking dried up and they quite sensibly agreed to ring fence any receipts post June 20. The risk of the ponzi was acknowleged and we complied with legislation by having an ABTA bond to cover it. The bond only came into force when we went bankrupt. That's not happened so we have to clear up the mess ourselves. The unknown question is how much ? £130m and counting

This is all in the accounts and fact there is no ambiguity. It has allready cost us £100m and probably £30m Feb - May so £130m allready. How much more is there is my question . To be clear this is burn as we are refunding Tours booked prior to June 20 where we have blown ALL the cash. If they book again we ringfence it but have to pay the operator when they go on holiday so its not a like for like replacement. And as you know our margins are pitifull on Tour

Refunds for Tours booked post June 20 these will be ring fenced (they have not spent the cash) and have no impact on cash burn.

As Thompson would say - trust me i'm an accountant and thats what has happened according to the companies accounts. Understanably they are not bragging about it.

Beach its far simpler than you think. Most of the £7m burn on Tour is customer refunds where the company has spent the deposits. Thats not an issue for cruise as deposits rigfenced albeit they "book" revenue for June and July cruises which explains why the Tu has cruise as cash neutral. No tricks no mirrors no clever accouting. It simple. Pre pandemic they had blown all future tour receipts. They have rectified £100m of it thriugh jan 20 and 21 accouts. I had naively thought we had maybe reached the end but we have paid a shed load more Feb to July. I dont think this is an existential threat to the company but it buts the kybosh on the future SP predictions for the more rose tinted amongst our posters.
They have been less than forthcoming in terms of diclosures and annoucments.
I really hope i am wrong but ive moved from thinking £6 by the end of the year was a certainty to being really unsure. Good job you suggested a £5.85 party !

Beach that would constitute tax fraud. Cruise is outside of the corporation tax regime. Interims will prove me right. First beer on you but i will get the second !!