Member Info for Banburyboy

155 cabins left on Baltic 29th August and 77 on Croatia one this morning.
My recent analysis is all 2022. Looking back on 23rd April i had the Baltic one as 63 cabins left and Croatia one as 14 ... even accounting for reduced capacity doesnt feel right.
Hate to say it but it gives me real doubts as to if the analyisis of cabins for sale is any use. Shame as i quite like doing it .

Laughton same ad was in Sat Times albeit quarter of a page. Interesting to see if its moved any I will look later. Banbury

Beach news to me if we have staff on furlough. I don't think we have.
It would make £7m per month cash burn on Tour 1st Feb 21 to 31st May even more jaw dropping.
Burn on cruise for same period was Nil as June / July income is released into the period (two months in advance).
Fact we are busy sounds promising saw a few adverts in my Saterday Times this morning.

Em Carrots - I think everybody knows your view on the £700m. The debate is a more subtle one.
£1.2 now
Emerald slug it out for $1.7BN.
The former outcome is far more certain than the later. The Emerald outcome will take time.
There are other subtleties like what's the position of other companies if they are breaking rank the position is harder to fight I don't buy the issue of an offer not influencing the courts it will do.
India won't pay the difference in my opinion but will negotiate at the margins with Cairn.
That's what's happening now and imo you won't like the outcome but compromise is needed on all sides or else their is a risk we all lose.
As previous poster said this be determined by large investors and my belief is they will compromise.

Wigan divy looks very safe based on recent rebasing and future earnings.
I take your point around if something is too good to be true.
I think that's created by uncertainty/ fear in the regulatory market on smoking. The risk call on this is whether that is over cooked.
You pays your money and takes your choice but my gut is its overcooked.

A reminder - £40m PBT is after financing.
Its based on £235 per deim per day and 80% capacity
Every £1 change in ticket price is = or - 300k per ship
Every 1% increase in occupancy is £1m per ship
So 87% at £250 per day adds
£14m to this for capacity
£9m for price
So £40m now £63m

As promised the 65.9% is split 72% Q1 79% Q2 68% Q3 and 44% Q4. £40m PBT is at 80%
Observations are
--5th Jan 83 day tour of south America. I have been watching this one for months and it is moving very very slowly 60% booked with 201 cabins left and this has barely moved in months. It drags down Q1 figures and i do wonder if its too long for our clinet group ?
-- Lagards are 16th May Ireland 48% and 15th April Lowlands but these are both five days - too short ?
--- Most of October - December 22 only 40% booked two Xmas ones being exception. Probably too be expected ?

The most popular ones
26th May Fjords - sold out
21st Jan carabean - 95%
27th Feb Artic 93%
19th June Iceland 94%
2nd June Corsica 97%.
Make what you want of this lots in their for everyone but would like to see the South America one get a wiggle on as it nearly a quarter of annual capacity and has a disproportinate impact - Beach take some of the booklets to Doncaster and get a few sold :)
Obviously how long the cruise has been marketed will also impact the bookings
Banbury

I will post more detail later
Looked at all 42 cruises announced . One 26th May 22Fjords is sold out
There are 20,958 cabins available for holidays when i first looked on 2nd August 63.5% were sold. In two weeks 19th August a further 508 cabins are sold and capacity is up to 65.9%. This feels a big movement in two weeks 12 a cruise average.

As a benchmark in the interims 2019 on 19th September they had sold" just over 50% of plan"
in the TU on 28th Jan 2020 they were 76% of their full year target.
As Saga plan / target is to get 80% capacity these figures against 100% are actually 40% interims and 61% against 100% capacity.
Put this way the figures i have presented are much better and one and five months earlier than the comparatives.
I am hopefull as Beach says that the cruise sales could be absolutely outstanding.
I'm looking for £100m PBT on interims from insurance a 40% hike in line with peers
Will post more detail later but certainly bodes well

I do like this share and it is only recently they rebaslined the dividend to £1.38 from £2.20 ish.
Core Dividend I think is really safe. Last results were supported by disposal of the cigar business but still had a £2-3bn reduction in debt.
Brought into Cairn at £1.31 and waiting for an rns confirming settlement which should add 50p to the Sp.
Plan to move lot into here at £16 !! But £15 even better and leave it for a few years as I see a 10% income return as too good to miss

Lucky pin
$1.2 now is a serious win.
Continuing to fight for a higher settlement is high risk has no guarantees will take forever not in the best interests of shareholders.
There is the only sensible outcome in my opinion. Time will tell.

Good post Ant.
Like I said one to five on prompt settlement with a few indirect sweetners.
Not sold on the holding out / walking away case nor do I think the company or major shareholders.
I make that $1.2 bn £1.70 a share.
Tax will only be due on profit so settlement less the cost of assets seized so probably a small tax charge. If cairn have claimed relief against asset seized in previous tax returns a larger amount will be chargeable. Anyone know how this event was treated for tax purposes in cairns previous accounts ?

Beach when Saga gets to £5.50 -£6 I'm buying you and others on here a pint and going to St Ledger. Looks like next news Sept interims

Lucky what you say makes sense and I concur the issue however could drag on in pertuity.
A bird in the hand and an immediate settlement that suits both parties is in Caiens best interest and that's what I really believe we will see

Baysil good post well researched and interesting. Two observation :
Is your interest calc right ? Your post says Libor plus SEMI annual 1.375% so annual 2.750 . Libor was low 0.35 ish up to 2017 and over 2% from then . So I make the award a broad 4%. Compounding (interest on interest) every six months really piles it on to. So my figure is double yours
- tax treatment I believe if we got no tax credit from a write down in 2014 there should be no tax on a settlement. But no expert.
Two opposing views tough it out with money accruing all the time or settle.
I'm with previous poster and will be disappointed if we don't settle in the next month or so.
I do think they will compromise and Cairn has lots of cards - I still think $1.2bn and significant access to Cairn to Indian opportunities.
That suits both parties and I think we should embrace that . India is significantly safer and stable than Eygpt and proffered treatment could really be the making of Cairn.
Alternative sit on our hands play hardball for three years. Seize a few planes that have Nil value in current markets.
Sorry we need to compromise on the best terms for Cairn and move on. I called that at five to one on and still think that's by far the most likely and best outcome for the company

"Sell in May and go away come back on St Ledger day" as the proverb says.
11th September at Doncaster fireworks backed up by solid interims .
1.40 -50% increase in insurance PBT in line with peers to £100m.
2. Solid figures for advance cruise bookings
3. A line under cash drain from reimbursing Tour customers whose bookings predate the decision to ring fence receipts when RdH took the helm.

4. Or an RNS disposing of Tour operations for a £1

We can all dream and hope three of those four and I would be delighted add that final one and this really would be a top class investment .

Good luck to all Saga holders

Idad. If we are sailing at 100% capacity I make that on average they are 89% full. That's pretty good.

Total volumes 163k lowest I have ever seen by a factor of two.

Thanks Gooner really interesting. I think you are back in as a holder am I right or are you on the sidelines ? Volumes today 70k by 2 o clock lowest I can ever recall.

Emerald don't take this the wrong way as you called HFD fantastically. I got in at 65p and bailed far too early at 90p.
But I would not want you on the negotiating team
Cool heads a carry demeanour a willingness to compromise and sniff out opportunities that won't be revealed to you and I but will be to the benefit of the shareholders and allow Indian Government to say the avoided charges. It will be settled you will not be happy but there imo will be more than meets the eye here.
Cairn will be back in India in no time .. if we forget the past it feels safer than Egypt. Interesting to see developments.

Wokingpark
Completely concur I think it's five to one on we settle for what many on here seem to consider a low offer.
The SP is muted because of a fear Cairn will play hardball and this will just drag on endlessly.
The best interests of shareholders to me is the Board acting promptly and settling. That certainly means we should hit £2.30 .
I think behind the scenes may push for preferential treatment in terms of Indian investment / opportunities which suits both parties and benefits Cairn shareholders. Deal next week is my hope.