Member Info for Banburyboy

Good post saev and ant. You have approached the valuation differently and come up with a similer answer. We are worth £3 a share based on assets and most of that is cash.
Only risk is India deal which we seem to take as a given but market is unsure. The risk is we push for interest and legal fees.
I hope they don't but that must be what's holding the price down ?

Thanks Rob. I'm aware of the decline 2018 17.5kbpd. 2019 23k 2020 21k 2021 estimate 17-19k. Still feels very cheap. Be happier if there was some "avoided" decommissioning costs. Does anyone know. My 5000 shares and vote could swing it :)

We sell an asset with an effective date of 1st Jan 2020. The sale price is £455m. We operate it for the eighteen months to 30th June and the resultant cash flow of £273m is knocked off the purchase price !!! Waldorf have done nothing and aquire an asset for a lot less than the original purchase price. With high oil price in the final half of 2021 we might be paying them.
Granted we get a share of any oil over $52 but the deal sounds too awful to be true.
I can only think we avoid billions in decommissioning costs ? Does anyone know ?

Jed oil price in Nov 19 when they annouced sensitivities was $63(brent) . Its about $83 now so 30% increase.
Every 10% increase adds £0.5m to annual fuel costs per ship so £3.0m increase. Total operating costs for both ships circa £70m of which in Nov 19.

Hi Laughton rox is right about gooner.
I do think they are clever with the pricing so two things.
- there is a myriad of different types of cabins so the price promise only applies to a small subset.
- they release cabins in blocks. So the heavily discounted class of cabins are only at the end. Narrowing any price promise commitments.
They balance being fair with being commercial and this is there day to day bread and butter business.

Jed
Agree your general point but for Saga cruises
- oil is a fractional cost as evidenced in the ships sensitivity presentation
- wages / food agreed some pressure but per diams allready +20% above normal levels.
- corporation tax is in tonnage tax regime so 100k a year a very low marginal rate.
Market will "generalise' but any hit to cruise from world events on pricing should be minor.

Fdb poly a fair point and I hope not.
I try to be objective - Tour is a dog, a couple of posters on here think insurance is stale and no dividends for quite a while. But to me at the positives outweigh the negatives.

At £3.30 and a market cap of £460m this must begin to look attractive again .
£175m of available cash and Insurance and cruise - cash generative. No prospect of a RI / cash call
Insurance contributing £140m a year and stable. Cruise almost certain to put in a PBT of £50-70m based on forward bookings. Losses on Tour likely to decline as legacy issue's re deposits being spent feed through.
Just looked at 2021 short term booking - two cruises late Oct 78% booked. Three cruises November 81% booked and three Dec 88% booked (one sold out). These are pretty good figures.
2022 - ignoring the four new cruises to replace the South America one that was pulled that have only been announced a few days and are going fast . Jan - Sept - six cruises sold out. Q1 86% of capacity sold , Q2 86% sold and Q3 77%.
That's a forward look of more or less a year with bookings of 83% capacity already.
These figures are absolutely spectacular, the are superb .
I seriously believe if the company did a news release (RNS) and included this it would cause a significant rise in our price and broker re-ratings. All in my opinion of course.

Batfest - could be falling due to a seller as some speculate on here or covid sentiment.
I would be confident on cruise but Tour as you know massively worries me.
If we can get shut of Tour and sentiment returns £200m I think is well possible.
As others have pointed out a long term hold

Profit up low to mid single digits !
Let's say 4%. So last year's £3,068m is £3,190m.
Effective tax 23% post tax £2,456m
Dividend say £1.40 cost £1,324m
Dividend cover 1.85%.
Looks really sustainable to me.
Looks a good investment. Today + 4.5%

My take is all cash flows belong to the purchaser this year and Cairn will be due
- $460 sale consideration
- First half profit share 60% of $66.90 less $52 at 3.5m barrels = $32m
- Second half assuming $85 oil price less $52 - at say 3.3m barrels = $65m.
Costs of operations and any other cash inflow attributed to the purchaser so not relevent to Cairn
Cairn should clear a cash flow of $557m in 2021 from this. Add to $ allready in bank at begining of year from Senegal less capital return say $150. = circa $700m
Add India $1060 = $1,760 = £1,291
So £2.60 a share .
Seems really cheap and others have said cash rich

Ignoring the four Jan / Feb cruises that have just been announced. The position is
- 17 cruises five sold out
- 120,758 cabin days available
- 104,952 sold
-87% sold out !!
Up from 85% on 20th September .

As a reminder Target profit for each ship is £20m profit before tax
Based on 85% occupancy and £234 per person per day ticket
- Each 1% increase in occupany is worth £1m per ship and each £1 increase in ticket 300k per ship.
- Per diem in last accounts was according to the company running at £306 per customer
- so assuming 90% occupancy adds £10m to PBT and per diems £42m.
- so targeting £92m PBT - less say £20- £30m as the sensitivities/ costings date from November 19 so prices / cost will have risen.
So could be on target for £60m - £70m will little or no corporation tax to pay

I posted yesterday under the thread sisters.
I set the baseline for the four new cruises as being 1,327 available cabins. I think i looked late Sunday night.
Just looked and Jan 5th Canaries - 25 cabins now moved , Jan 20th Canaries 23 cabins moved, Feb 5 Artic 23 cabins moved and finally Feb 22nd Carabean 17 cabins moved. So thirty six hours and 88 cabins gone so 1,327 now 1,239.
Feels like as Beachburn said a fantastic year ahead for cruise profits

Thanks Alnwick let's hope they are right. If we disenvest tour I would buy into that I really would.
On cruise the tonnage tax regime means we pay less than 100k corporation tax on earnings each year.
That's massive with corporartion tax rising from 19 to 25% in April 23. On target cruise PBT of £20m a ship which hopefully we will shatter means corporation tax fixed at 100k rather than £10m

Thanks Alnwick
Not an area I am greatly familiar with but presumably the hargreaves landsdown ones and really institutions in their own right but rather the nominnes for guys like me ? Or are the nominees excluded from these lists ?

Olmsey 100m are you sure we only have 140m sharesand I thought rdh had a fair few. I'm not particularly clued up major shareholders

Thompson not quite a takeover but Dofus in his last post and he is knowledgeable is sticking by his guns on Titan being sold. It has a new chief exec and if we could sell / give it away IMO it would derisk Saga hugely. Its wafer thin margins and exposure to uncertain events Thomas Cook, volcanoes etc reminds me of construction companies carillon keir etc and look what happened to them. Its like the good bank (insurance) allways bailing out the bad bank (tour ) to the detriment of the wider company and shareholders. Still not convinced we can sell it and I could see a golden hello from the recent bond raise. I hope so

Just saw a guy on cnbc talking about his mid cap fund hodgekis and wiley. Only caught the end but Cairn at 3% their top holding. He was saying far to many small oil firms whose market cap was only five times earnings. His words but they can buy themselves in five years. His take was loads of mergers and acquisitions over the next year. Bodes well !!

Done some quick analysis.
The headline price of the 83 day South America tour was 20k.
It was 59% booked when pulled with no movement in that for two months before.
The four replacement cruises have a combined headline price of £18,002. But last one finishes 14th March 14 days before the SA one returned so in theory they could fit another in so it looks like for like.
Cabin availability on new cruises is two Canaries 360, and 349 , Northern Lights 331 and Caribbean 287. Implication is at least 30 of the SA cancelations rebooked on Northern Lights and say 70 on the longer Caribbean.
I think that is good news and will use today 4th October and figures above as baseline to track future bookings.
Lots of eggs in canary basket (excuse the pun) with three cruises in Jan / Feb

Bird's-eye from the analysis last week. 85% booked for half one 2022 without South America and 79% with it (on a daily basis reflecting the longer cruise) I think this is a good move. Interesting to see if the volcano on canaries is a draw or a put off for the two cruises there.