Member Info for Banburyboy

I am interested in bargains. What worries me is the incremental movement on current trading between 7th Oct TU and today's update

1 - cash at 7th October £3.7m. Cash 16 Nov £4.6m. So 900k generation in five weeks.
2 - lfl 2020 trading England up 21% 19th July to 2nd October but only 14% 19th July 14 weeks to accounts.
Lfl growth in last five weeks is pretty much nil.
To risky for me but good luck

Anyone clocked volumes high 775k at 12.40
High for the last three months was 1031k on 23rd September
I dread to dream the worm is turning ...

Reminds me of 20 years ago when I was a whipper snapper collecting returns on building societies. One small society had a nil return but posed a question.
What's the difference between a super market trolly and a NED ?
Answer a supermarket trolly has a mind of its own but you can fit more food and drink in a non executive director.
RH - got lucky Friday golden rule not to gamble when drunk. 5 pints at 3pm took 6k out of CNE and stuck it on AVON. Rank stupidity but was good for a 20% gain.
Will be in here soon the fat NED is not quite singing but warbling as my finger gets itchy and I buy into CARD !!!

I’m a big fan - The product was launched in April 2019

• Nine months to 31st Jan 2020 – 320k sold (65% of direct new business)
• Twelve months to 31st Jan 21 – 610k sold (63% of direct new business). 38% of total sales
• Six month to 31st July 21 – 374k sold (58% of direct new business) 45% of total sales.

The first policies end in April 22. Based on 1.3m active policies with nine months until first maturity total sales will be 1.8m that’s phenomenal. Consider also

- The direct new business % is declining from 65% to 58% but that’s expected as Saga are fishing in an ever diminishing pot.
- The key metric is total sales so 45% of all sales are fixed three year products. That is amazing to add to 1.3m already locked in.
- What happens when the 1.8m policies begin to mature? They are all good customers, no claims, so probably a small discount for loyalty. Will they leave? Of course they won’t they will stay in droves.
- The product in my opinion beautifully sidesteps the new FCA rules re annual premiums not being price walked. It seems quite niche and no others have followed suit.

We had a long debate about claims price inflation my view was in the current environment of declining premiums – Saga was gaining more from the fix than it was losing from increased claims price.
To be fair claims inflation is a risk and is included in the accounting policies
“Premiums are allocated to each of the three years based on the expected relative claims costs each year. Deferred revenue is unearned premium”

“As at 31st July 2021 £9.6m (H1 2020 £7.6m) of income had been deferred in relation to three year fixed price products £3.4m of which related to income written in the six months to 31st July 2021”.

The metrics on the unearned premium will be adjusted for underwriting and claims inflation but does really insulate the company.

In summary booming cruise bookings, stellar insurance with locked in and loyal customers bodes really well and I’m holding for much better and happier times.

Far - I'm very similer to you sold a few 10% of my holding in £4,s and still in profi even at these rices.
Still think if cruise can stay covid free the January update will presently suprise. I'm here for £5 .50 ish and as long as it takes.

Chelmo welcome cruises are at full steam 80 +% occupancy for first nine months of next year which is unheard of and the two cruises next week at 92%.. I hope you bring long term sufferers some luck

Very choppy just dropped from £11.28 to below £11 in seconds. I hope it continues upward momentum

Crashed through £11 -- £11.07 to sell.

This has been on my watch list for a long time. Thankfully avoided it at £18.
My golden rule is never gamble when drunk. Had five pints on Friday and looked at winners / losers board. Brought 292 for my SIPP and 306 forvshare account at £9.24 and £9.46 respectively. That's a lot of money for me and had this feeling of dread all weekend. Looks like I got away with it and fingers nearly sold just over £10. Still seriously nervy and will sell at £11.50 but think this time for once I did pick the bottom.

1068 news afoot ?

Just shot up to 1052 to sell very quickly

Two cruises 20th November and 21st.
At time of writing 86 cabins left so we are 92% booked which could snake up a tad. Six days ago there were 134 cabins so 48 sold in a short period of time.
Occupancy is well ahead of plan (80% plan) and per diems also significantly above the £234 plan.
The current SP is a nightmare - If Cruise can avoid the lockdowns or any issues on ship re covid which i think is very possible this company is at a bargin price for new investors.

Exact terms are commercial in confidence but weightings full value are not Euan can earn up to 150% of salery and the insurance guy 125%. Base d on :
Insurance PBT - 21%
SsL retention (not sure what this means) 14%
Cruise loading deims 14%
Net debt Jan 22 21%
Personal objective - 30%.

The last one is nailed but I'm personally disappointed nothing is directly linked to share price. Albeit logic suggests the first four drive share price.

Welcome Molokai.
Here's hoping your arrival brings us long suffering LTH some luck.

Hi Laughten
I agree claims will hit insurers broadly equally.
For the now accidents costs are up 3% and premiums down 7%. So a company with no fix is 7% worse off than one with a fix . Let's park the point on underwriting and assume everyone is hit with the 3%.
Your point is If premiums rise Saga is locked in at a lower rate compared to annually renewed premiums. A fair challenge. However ..
-Premiums are for now not going up
- fixes have no renewal cost to the company for two extra years improving margins
- Saga has hedged that risk
- the risk unwinds (both ways) in the three year cycle as customers reach the end of the third year and renew at prevailing industry rate (higher if premiums increase)
- New Market rules on premiums not increasing (poker chips has posted) support static premiums. So Saga really has a first move advantage.

On balance I would rather have 60% of my book tied in at a fixed rate product in a period when premiums are falling. I get there are risks when premiums increase again but think there are appropriate mitigations to protect the bottom line.

Thanks Nic
I have to say you do lack balance . To prolong a meaningless argument with me you now present the three year fix as a mistake by Saga which tie in the company in not the consumer and good for the consumer.
On the 28th May your view was . ' Saga has been constantly price walking for many years . They are still at it the three year fix is upselling and a bit of a con "
A con that you present Saga now losing on just to continue a debate with me :)
Says it all really. You don't have a lot of joy for us
12th October Gooner explained Cruise pricing Nic said "its a scam".
15th July Nic gloating over a Singapore cruise passenger who had covid
25th June - bond issue. "kicking the can down the road ". In the interests of balance I get that and partially agree.
If you did some research on Tour which is this companies archilies heel we would have some common ground.
Good luck if you are actually invested in the share.

Good post Alnwick. Cruise is outside of corporation tax regime. They have opted for tonnage tax which is buttons. 200k compared to £8m at 19% CT and £10m when it goes up to 25%. Very helpful especially as Idad says and we achieve 90% occupancy and profit is more than £20m a ship. There is no incremental tax as profits increase. Banbury

Rouge hope you are well and thanks for coming out of hibernation - difficult with this share.
Laughton I agree two sides to the coin on fixed deals but :
- The downside risk of the fix (rising claims and rising costs) . We only have costs at the moment is hedged.
- The fix has significant savings on renewals / marketing and customer churn over the period.
Any fix properly executed is a guaranteed income stream.

Nic please read my post again . To repeat myself it will impact Saga bottom line far less because :
(1) Saga don't underwrite as much as other insurers including direct line so the impact of claims is far less.
(2) in the same FT article you posted it says across the industry premiums are down 7% which is a double whammy if you underwrite and have increased accidents like Direct line. Saga has 60% of its premiums fixed so is not impacted by either . So I disagree the follow through impact is not the same for every insurer.
You obviously feel I spout ridiculous irrelevant rubbish and drivel
I think most reasonable people would agree my analysis is researched, evidence based, relevant and interesting to Saga shareholders.
Enjoy your day

Nic - you have lost me I'm afraid.
Why post it on Saga board if you didn't want an opinion of its impact on Saga ?
Y
Clairvoyancy is not in my strong suit