Member Info for Banburyboy

Away from the marriage theme.
I could not work out why the Xmas trip to the Caribbean only had 690 or so passengers (69%) when i had it as 94% - 30 double cabins only available at point of departure .
Long and XMAS cruises have huge demand for the 100 cabins for singles. way ahead of couples.
So for the two Xmas 2022 cruises of the 900 twin cabins 200 are available. Of the 200 available single cabins a year ahead of time only one is available. By my calculations around 350 cabins on the Xmas carribean cruise are single occupied and they pay top dollar so are as profitable as a twin. Martin Palmer looks like you were right and i'm a lot happier. Logic would suggest singles would want away for festivities
Post some news on cruise booking later in the week re mix singles / doubles
Booking flatter than normal but still over 80% full for 2022. Some growth from April - December but quarter one flat still 82% but very slightly more availaibility than from three weeks ago - might be a few nerves on short term journeys .

£11.50 to sell news ?

Well done Gary. Its a clear second in leader board might draw in some interest.

£11.30 now. Could this be more than a bounce !! Certainly got momentum

Thanks Jo - a strange set of circumstances. We lived together 15 years and might as well be married. My future wife's very best mate is unfortunately terminally ill and a couple of months back said she would really love us both to be married. What do you say !! Legal notice 28 days and the fantastic news is she is likely to make it Monday would have been horrible if not. On the plus side my sort of low key affair me her and two witnesses and no great expense which is allways useful to long term Saga suffers. I know a lot of holders are north east based and its in Alnwick - only place could get in pdq and weather looks good.

Thanks Olmney and RoX.
I need to see you both in or not at the £5 York Station Saga party. Rox you must vascaline up and wear the Speedo,s still my favourite ever comment on these boards.
For those reading Rox is a triathlon man who trains in the North Sea at Roker. He haunts the CARD board and Lombard have taken a short position. Rox is sure they are wrong and spends a lot of time telling the Board that . A wag on their said thanks Rox but I would rather rely on a professional reputable firm than an greased up monkey in Speedo.s on future Card share price !! Brilliant

Just cracked £11.00. Those who got in £8.75 which I think was the bottom have done well.
I did not think the update was that bad and thought we might see a 10% rise pre open on Wednesday. Never dreampt it would fall 20 % first !! Funny old game.

SoH - thanks. January will tell if I am right or wrong. I can't see anything other than very strong cruise demand and cash flow with solid insurance and a huge re rate. Other doubt is Director purchases (not RDH) the salaried ones.

A very apt title as I'm getting married on Monday !! But in relation to Saga my one doubtb is the lad currently on the Carrabean cruise saying it was 70% full I have it as 95% full based on cabins available prior to sailing. M Palmer has suggest it might be lots of singles booking double cabins.
However
We know ten cruises are sold out so demand is high.
When they released occupancy figures in June and September they were bang on my figures.
It just nags at me as the only thing I could have misjudged.
The inference is Martin is right but a lot of singles not like Meon Monday :)

Unfortunately nothing at all back to normal

Been negotiated trade high volatility on h/l for 10 minutes ? News ?

100% no rights issue.
£180m of cash likely beb £250m in Jan update.
Read all my previous posts cash flow from insurance covers cruise and tour even when shut.
Ship repayments commence March 22 at £80m a year. If we are cruising no issue if we are not that £250m will cover 2 years of ship capital repayments. No rights issue needed. Fantastic investment at these prices it will hot £6 if cruise is uninterrupted up to September 22

Well I did say this morning.
Frankln acquiring just over 2% or 600k of shares. Third institution to raise holding since initial announcement.

Flirting with £9.90 and 8% up.

The company looks secure to me.
Debt neglable and $22m of free cash flow. This was depressed by $34m of R&D in year over double last and should secure future cashflows.
Agree points on takeover.
Interesting to see any holdings rns are institutions acquiring or selling after yesterday's news.
Any acquiring will be a vote of confidence.
Might take a while but this will go up and certainly won't go bust. BB

Charles in my analysis of debt pre pandemic through to July interims. Net debt had fallen by £160m excluding ships. Basically the rights £140m and sales Bennetts have not been burnt.
So insurance is covering a suspended cruise and Tour. Cash balances circa £180m

The good news is Tour burn will fall as legacy deposits we have spent work though so we will be cash generative with all of travel down.
The bad news is all the above is with no capital repayments on ships which are circa £80m a year with catch up payments.
My analysis is we could survive year no rights issue but a very depressed SP.
If we can get to Jan update and cruise still sailing the market will be astounded and I think cash will go up £70m remember no capital repayments.
That should materially improve SP.
After that it's a pure risk play on does the virus impact cruise demand ( I think it increases demand as it safe) and will the authorities let us sail. Last point is guess work

Prima facie the movement from $148m cash to $27 debt in the year looks horrible - $175m burned . However :
- $131m acquisition of team Wendy
- $16m dividends and suprising some share buy backs
- $10m one of capital gains tax on disenvestment - no recurring
- $34m capital expenditure this is quite heavy and hopefully generates future profit and not in armour business !!
-$6m pension and interest
This leaves a net positive cash flow of $22m from operations (post dividends and some heavy capital investment).

Welcome views but perhaps underpins management confidence in the future

TOS I looked at £8.75 and bottled it £9.46 now.

Yrab - the inference is the armour business has no value so they are seeing though existing commitments. Pleasingly most of the write-downs are non cash.

The divy and the share buy backs are what suprise me. They must be really confident moving forwards. Disappointed I am now slightly down brought in a £9.46 on previous crash but they are almost suggesting (buy back) the share price is too low and (dividends) they are cash generative. Most of accounting entries are non cash and yes this is reputationally poor but not a death notice.