Member Info for Banburyboy

This one has some large swings it's £ 12.02 now it was £10.70 a few days ago at noon. Brought in low and nice profit but don't know if to stick or twist with other opportunities. Anyone have a view of if this an attractive TO target and why ? Thanks

Sorry too excited !!
Long time
Strike before the dividend is paid rather than annouced

Baysil you have mentioned that for a log time and I must admit to seeing the logic.
I'm assuming any strike must be befoe dividend is annouced.
Could they make a bid before cash ( conditional on..)
When do you see the optimal time ?

34ad - my guess for 5th Feb for receipt of cash is still standing. Just need £2.20 for a double. I don't win much !!! Seriously how many of us have pitched in a low ball SP speaks volumes for how disappointed/ skeptical / underwhelmed we are by CNEs communication and strategy. The only material hike I'm seeing is from a takeover and that's a long shot. All the excitement I had from this share a few months ago has been knocked out of me. I just want this over so I can move on.

Thanks Wok great find.
Not sure about the journalism though CNE has $908 billion valuation ?
Perhaps the cash has landed and we are the last to know !!!
I suspect it should read £908million.
Banbury

I look in occasionally. It must be ten years since this was 50p plus since then its lost 98 to 99% of its value. I got out with a 50% loss moons ago.
Dilution is allways at the expense of the shareholder. Good luck to any new shareholders but there ten year record is SP losses and the snakes are always considerably longer than the ladders. Perhaps 2022 will be the year RRR has a gain but don't bet your shirt on it !!!

Hi Rupans they pulled the 91 day South America tour in October and replaced with five shorter cruises of which one was a month. They only made that one change. Longer tours according to my analysis are popular with singles they pay top dollar and the 111 single cabins sell out far quicker than 444 twins.

Slow and Steady - you know the answer to that as a regular poster and a really strange question.
1. Insurance - steller and £120m profit
2. Tour a dog very thin margins even in good times.
3. Cruise is either a loss of £80m in lockdown or a profit of £80m conservatively when up and running. Neither the losses or profits are subject to corporation tax.
Where the SP goes moving forward is a function of cruise onlybwith an incremental impact of £160m between not operating and operating.
It's fundamental to anyone invested here hence the micro analysis

Whitehat I will start off with a very low ball £2.20. I would love it to be far higher but I can't understand why the SP is not there allready with India nailed on. With this share I think I am used to being disappointed so my head expects £2.20. My heart and my valuation of the parts like others is £2.50 + but something doesn't feel right to me. I still think as others do SHs best outcome is a takeover by a another bigger more indebted player attracted by cash. Paying a divy to me feels an attempt to avoid a TO let's hope someone strikes quick. As for the share buy back 7 weeks to aquire 2.5m shares or 0.5% of the company - a real slow burner. Praying for a take over and £2.20 SP with cash in bank might just trigger that !!

Rupans sorry could you explain the context on long cruises coming back. Haven't looked much over the holidays and no chatter on cruise critic of any issues with two Xmas cruise ?

Watching with interest with a small holding and hoping to invest a bit more before trading update.
Given cost increases I think I think LfL sales probably need to increase 5- 10% for margins to be maintained at pre pandemic levels which were good. What struck me were :
Interims had 7 weeks to 19th Sept 21 as a 6.3% reduction on pre pandemic LfL. 8th Nov had the first quarter as down only 3%. My maths has those six weeks to 31st Octobet as marginal 1% LfL growth. Maintenance of that growth trend for Q2 bodes well.
Average transaction was 20% higher but footfall 20% lower. All the anectodil posts from shop watchers are footfall customers in shops . The company has reported footfall (transactions) volume as being just 80% of pre pandemic levels. A small improvement to 85% if the higher average basket value is maintained will translate into a good second quarter. Boots on the ground from posters here suggest we are.definstely in line for improving levels of transactions
Hopefully great news in the new year

Batfasted - i think as our expectations got battered i lowered the party SP from £7 to £5.
Completely welcome to offers on the party trigger but i for one would be up for a £5 party (if we live long enough). My exit price was circa £6-7 but good for any party and after these strange time's. What's not to like and it would be fun ! What's other thoughts on £5 party. Happy to commit propose a date and be there with a white rose in my lapel if no one shows i will look a prize prat !!!
On a more gloomy front - i read the power point that accompanied 2021 Interims. Two standouts :
- H2 - £13m impact temporary increase in costs and cruise credits
- h2 - £20m costs increases in costs due to timing effects and investments in growth including advertising.
They describe H2 as transformational !!
My previous analysis was based on H2 being similer except cruise to HI - broadly the power point supports that
So H2 profit will fall from my estimate of £76m to circa £46m
I think the impact of cash will be lower as the rules allow them to draw down for sailing two months in advance so to 31sr March and Feb / March are strong. So £215m cash downgraded to £200m.
Still think market will react exceptionally well - Inshalla

RM - sorry got it now

The RNS of 5th March 21 - is really clear dividends are restricted whilst deferred ship principle £51.8m is outstanding.
With £175m in the bank at 31st July and another £40m by January update a bold move would be to clear that early and remove the restriction.
What would that do to the SP ? Accelerate York hopefully !!

Thanks Rouge and seasons greetings.
There was a slight negative on Qi bookings looking a bit soft and in particular the 21st Jan Caribbean cruise going from sold out to having spaces
Cruise capital repayments are £54m a year for five years (£10m of deferals) and £44m for five years after. Target 80% capacity model leaves little cash flow for dividends and is broadly cash break even.
So any divs will be out of £140m profit on insurance. Assuming Tour can break even and a third say £42m is distributed 30p a share not unreasonable. But maybe I'm being too positive and some conjecture . What I am convinced is the 2022 Trading update will be eye watering hopefully tears of joy not sorrow !!

First half accounts to 31st July 2021 showed a £1m profit - £69m of insurance profits subsumed by travel losses, finance charges and central overhead. Cruise reported loss for first half year was £35m.
Second half all other numbers remaining equal and cruise will move from £35m loss to a £40m profit - £20m per ship for the half year. The company has said ships need to operate at 80% capacity and £234 ticket sale per day for £40m PBT for each ship. We know from their numbers that capacity is 80% + and ticket sales £302. So, the company will make conservatively a £76m profit in the second half (this is merely replacing a £35m cruise loss in HI with a profit of £40m in H2). This is an annual £150m whilst providing £30m of support losses to keep Tour going. This an Price to earnings ratio of 2.5 !!!
With no ship repayment until 30th June 2022. Cash flow will be excellent
• Available cash at 31st July £175m
• Insurance as HI +£50m
• Tour injection as HI -£20m
• Cruise income £85m (very conservative and confirmed in Sept 21 – plenty of sales since)
• Cruise margin from ship presentation - £45m
• Finance charges - £15m
• Buffer and cap ex - £15m
• Available cash 31st Jan 2022 - £215m
Forward sales on cruise for 2022 are exceptional and my calculations suggest the £40m per annum per ship PBT could be circa £59m per ship in 2022.
- Capacity closer to 90% not 80% adds £10m per ship
- Average revenue per day £306 model says £245 and each £1 = 300k. But lots of inflation /covid costs so take half of the £61 or £30 to profit = £9m per ship
Assuming Tour still shut this suggests PBT could be £190m in 2022. Price earnings on 2
I have reviewed latest bookings at Xmas eve.
First three quarters Nine months to September 22 overall bookings 84% (split 94% single cabins 83% doubles). Quarter 2 to June is standout with 96% occupancy (98% single 92% double). Therefore, I am comfortable on exceeding cruise earnings.
Quarter 4 lags Oct – Dec and is currently 53% booked (60% single 46 double) – but this has not hit peak booking season.
Overall, for the whole year we are at 76% of all capacity booked at Xmas eve to give context
- 22nd Sept 21 RNS – 59% and £306 per passenger (now 76%)
- Pre pandemic 28th Jan 20 RNS forward booking 60.8% and £259 per capita. 30 days of peak booking to go and we are far in excess for this. 76% and £306
I have absolutely no doubt in mid-February the price of Saga will be significantly higher than now, and the market has missed the incremental contribution of Cruise which results from sailing very busy ships with customers paying a premium.

Speedo man --- the link beach posted to me said two things (1) dilution unlikely (2) even with a 30p rights issue the then 50p price was outstanding value. A win win . It was that link that convinced me.
Any rights now would be higher than 30p and less dilutive.
My holding is really modest 49p but a winner is a winner.

Fdbc routinely I would agree with you however two mitigating factors.
1. The company raised £140m net of costs from last RI. Cash at hand on 31st July is £160m higher than then so they have not p*****d proceeds against the wall.
2. No chance of another RI.
Whilst we were all diluted it's clear the rights and RDH gave the market confidence to defer ship payments and refinance bonds and ensure we fought on another day
This company is hugely better off than when Covid hit mid last year.
Ocean Cruises sailing is key - if they are suspended for more than a month time to reassess until the we look good to me . Banbury

A West I concur for long term holders that seems to be the case.
For those who took the plunge on the big fall (annoucement of strategic review and delayed results ) or mini fall (review outcome and results ) they have done well.
I still see milage here up to £15.

Hi beach hope all is well and you are steering clear of the law.
What do you think at Saga you got out in time but £2.40 is seriously cheap ?. Look at my weekend posts on cash debt and cruise bookings and one this morning on confidence in cruise. I am out of CARD temporarily on trading update (which I am hopefully will be great ) and hopefully into Saga for there's which is late Jan. Just as RH has no doubts on this the more I research the more I feel similar on Saga. Sorry to CARD only holders for off topic and won't do again.

Stock market down 2% . This is now £11.40 to sell. Definitely momentum