Member Info for Banburyboy

Jed with Saga up 5% and CARD static at your 52p buy in notlooking the best move at the moment. You will know my faith in Saga and rational and am expecting the SP to rise after TU. But in this game you never know. My first read of the RNS was solid and expected SP to be flat 17% is well overdone

Agree with most posters. Subtely I think

One off factors
Keeping up scheduled repayments and increase in available cash coupled with no need for rights would be fab. Key figure is coverage of available cash as the business is very seasonal
Business as usual
Meeting lfl pre pandemic sales or an increase.
If we see all of those and that's not impossible I would expect 20 - 25p hike.
Feel it's to early for dividend announcement except in general terms and debt covenants may preclude them.
Thanks to posters on here for dragging me in and if we have a boom post results may decamp to WrKs as others have suggested.

Doubled my holding at 63p this morning based mainly on info postings on here so average of 56p. Feeling positive

User thanks for the update I think I mixed up with another share. Will defo top up Monday if not to late.
Wicos and Beach thanks for updates. Exciting week.

User I thought I saw the concensus date was later than Monday 10th based on someone's reseach. Jan 20 something ?
Realise I'm running a risk but toying with buying a few more next week. Did I dream the date in the 20,s ? Thanks BB

All I saw some Xmas retail footfall figures that had Xmas 20% plus down in retail and 30% plus in high streets.
It did get me wondering have we all got this slightly wrong and whilst you think you see shops heaving is it all valid as you have no comparison ? I think it will be fine but wondered what the mitigation is ? I have
1 - average basket 20% up compensating for lower footfall
2 - card more in malls and parks than High Street? Not sure if that's true ?
3 - increase in on line is a permanent change rather than temporary and lockdown related (any one know ?)
4 - Third Party sales Aldis ? No footfall issue there
5 - Anything I have missed.
Apprecite your thoughts but if CARD does as well as you think at Xmas against that backdrop it's even more of a winner than you think ?
RH and Beach I think you picked up I brought a modest amount at 49p based on your ravings so thanks for the tip.
Look out for my post this morning on single cabins on Saga cruises you think your sad loitering round shopping centres !!! Beach really welcome your view on my singles point with your industry experience BB

RtoR
Baysil was being illustrative at £2 I believe but his analysis is right.
Any bid below £3.12 is accretive to an acquirers balance sheet.
Bids above this will result in goodwill but indirect benefits he quotes ENQ and HBR of FTSE 100 less leverage and cheaper borrowing on acquisition.
So a higher bit has benefits
He is also completely right on when the contingent asset is recognised.
If this remains £2.20 to £2.40. In my opinion its a sitting duck. A guess but are we all being played for an agreed low ball offer ?. Banbury.

Martin great posts !!
On the ship I think there are 111 single cabins and 444 double so 555 in total and 999 passengers full load.
With 749 for all cabins to be utilised they would need 360 single passengers and 390 twinned couples ( 350 single cabins 195 twin = 455).
Means virtually every other passenger was a single ? My recollection is this was fully booked and the two Xmas 22 cruises are 80 % full allready with no single availability.
The number of singles here has amazed me but my research shows current 2022 capacity all cruises at 80 % full and 96% single 78% double. Singles prefer long cruises and Xmas. So entirely possible. Thanks for the post not long now to TU. BB

Baysil thanks - civil service. Mainly do policy now with a finance tint re hmt rule book. managing public money. Sounds as dull as dishwater now I type it !! My main interest is SAGA and I could have a crack at mastermind based on the research and time I've spent on it. Trading update late Jan I'm very bullish. I hope I am not spectacularly wrong :)

Hi Baysil not far behind you. Thompson McLintock and got merged in my first year with Peat Marwick aka KPMG.
Got lucky on my passes and been in public sector for years now !

Great Post Baysil as an chartered accountant I agree accounting treatment. Good to have the NAV workings so anything below £3.18 assuming India cash arrives is a profit and straight to reserves.
It makes a compelling case to shareholders for a paper / cash acquisition at £3.18 or below as well as the gearing / ftse 100 benefits.
Worried that Border is suggesting post June 22 ... that's awful !

For what it's worth I think we are all actually agreeing on principles its just the assumption we disagree on .
Megla thinks a TO very unlikely Baysil thinks very likely - I think a possibility.
How likely a TO is completely relates to where the SP is post receipt. If it £2.20 I think its a sitting duck.
Even Megla thinks £2.80 is reasonable. I think Baysil £4 is optimistic.
Being close to winning the receipt of cash Sweep as last man standing (5th feb) . I will double up with my SP guess of £2.20 and cap it off with a los ball £2.80 bid three days later. !!!!

Megla I should add the attractio is the cash and a reasonable sum of parts valuation Egypt Senegal final cash now catcher / kraken earn out Mexico is £2.80 a share . Hbr get real assets on balance sheet, ftse 100 boost for their shareholders , huge reduction in leverage and hence borrowing costs. Not the dumbest move !!!

- Megla more than ego I believe joining FtSe 100 increases sp by 15 -20% as trackers buy in
- They are swapping paper for cash hence reducing leverage and borrowing cost.
I concur with yiu probably unlikely but at say £2.80 it's a steal for HBr.
Fingers crossed as I'm sure you will take a bit of ribbing and £2.80 if it happened !!

Megla Baysil gave some really compelling reasons.
- into ftse 100
- debt funded (limited call on SH,s)
- After TO leverage reduced.
- Lower debt servicing rate to HBbR.
Sounds credible to me and attractive at a low ball price £2.80 to HBr. Not sure about much more than that
That would put the BoD on the rack.
I agree it's unlikely but feels possible.
Without it you will be lucky on £2.50 little or no confidence in BoDs

This one has some large swings it's £ 12.02 now it was £10.70 a few days ago at noon. Brought in low and nice profit but don't know if to stick or twist with other opportunities. Anyone have a view of if this an attractive TO target and why ? Thanks

Sorry too excited !!
Long time
Strike before the dividend is paid rather than annouced

Baysil you have mentioned that for a log time and I must admit to seeing the logic.
I'm assuming any strike must be befoe dividend is annouced.
Could they make a bid before cash ( conditional on..)
When do you see the optimal time ?

34ad - my guess for 5th Feb for receipt of cash is still standing. Just need £2.20 for a double. I don't win much !!! Seriously how many of us have pitched in a low ball SP speaks volumes for how disappointed/ skeptical / underwhelmed we are by CNEs communication and strategy. The only material hike I'm seeing is from a takeover and that's a long shot. All the excitement I had from this share a few months ago has been knocked out of me. I just want this over so I can move on.

Thanks Wok great find.
Not sure about the journalism though CNE has $908 billion valuation ?
Perhaps the cash has landed and we are the last to know !!!
I suspect it should read £908million.
Banbury