Member Info for Banburyboy

I posted at 8.01 yesterday. One cruise is fully booked the other two had 98 double cabins and 11 single. 207 persons to max capacity. 93% booked
In the space of 28 hours its down to 5 single and 69 double cabins. 143 persons to max capacity. 96% booked for December.
Clearly news on pandemic is massively boosting cruises. I would recomend anyone thinking of buying get in at the current price . To me the game her is changing. Banbury

Poker should have said IR and the 31st July interims PowerPoint presentation.

Poker if you go to the IR site and click on the PowerPoint presentation slides 16 and 17 confirm next payment June 22 (including catch up payments for all deferals). So a hefty payment
The chart on slide demonstrates the impact on debt.
It paints a compelling picture if we can keep cruising.

Thanks Rupans.
Q1 Jan - March they have shifted 63 double cabins in three days. So 79.4% full to 80.9%. Again a big shift.
It's less for the further away cruises so feels like an immediate reaction to well publicised covid concerns.
No ship repayments are due until June 22 so cash flow should be very healthy
If I was not allready up to my neck in this I would be buying more !!!

December cruises are flying. I mentioned Sunday 186 double cabins to shift. This is now down to 98 with 11 single cabins following Rupan's comments on methodology. I wonder if with the pandemic people are opting for a cruise as safe ? But for that many to be shifted in three days is amazing.
So 998 x 3 capacity = 2,994 passengers. With 98 double cabins and 11 singles that 207 empty berths. So as of now 93% capacity.
I would like to think given the traction over the last three days with ten days left we will be close to a full house at 100% full.
I do wonder if ocean cruises are benefiting significantly from the higher covid risks from other travel. It seems in a stratified way Saga might have the ultimate complmentary good that is cruise is perceived as the safest form of travel in a pandemic.
I might be pushing this a bit far but definately food for thought.

Investment summary
"The reaction to the latest product approval delays and the strategic review in the body armour business appears to more than discount the likely financial impact and does not reflect solid progress in the core of the group involved in respirators and helmets. While the full ramifications of the delays and the strategic review are yet to be quantified by management, we assume a $40m reduction in FY22e revenue, affecting our FY22e EPS by 19%. We anticipate a strong recovery in FY23 EPS due to loss elimination and growth in the core respiratory and helmets activities".

Edison have 2022 Revenue at $289m and Profit before tax $38.1m for FY2022 - with 2023 unaffected.
This is a $39m reduction in revenue and $8.7m in PBT and one off . 12% and 19% reduction on previous pre bad news estimates.
With Avon in free fall at £18 sp before the news the inference is the fall is well overdone.
I was lucky watching this for a while (an but for the grace of god) and did not enter at £18 managed to find the bottom for about 600 shares.
Based on Edison note will hold rather than go for a quick 15% - done that too often and lived to regret it
Good luck - Banbury

Volumes 600k at 11.20 really high. I know Poker says it's algos but does feel like something going on. Wish I knew what !!!

Rupan's great spot on the single cabin's
My follow up work tells me the difference is small but i am overstating capacity
What i have learnt is where the margin are singles are £450 per day !!
Single cabin availability in ten cruises Q1 Jan to March is 102 in total (almost all in the ones replacing South America)
What i have done in my calculation is assume 499 total cabins all double occupied = 998 person full capacity. There are clearly less double cabins than this which would decrease the figures i am quoting.
I am ignoring single cabin's altogether.
I have looked at Q1 again I reported 79.4% assuming 499 double cabins in my post yesterday
Availability averages 101 double cabins = 202 customers and 10 single cabins ten customers = 212 customers at 998 capacity = 78.7%. So just shy of 1%
Anyone know for both ships the mix of double and single cabins and i will recalibrate but the good news is the error does not impact the conclusions - cruise doing well.

Good morning Saga sufferers a quick update on cruise

1. November Weekend sailing of SoA and SoD to Canaries were 92% full with 86 free cabins across both sailing when I last looked

2. Three December 21 cruises – one sold out overall capacity at 88.5%. 186 cabins on two cruises to shift. 66 of these are on the 30 day 6th December (Xmas cruise) and have a higher weighting. If they can sell that out, we are at 95% capacity

3. Q1 2022 improving rapidly 10 cruises 79.4% booked. This is dragged down by the late cancelation of the South America grand tour. The five cruises that replaced it have only been available 6 weeks and ignoring them bookings are 88%
4. Q2 2022 – 12 cruises six sold out 94% of total capacity sold
5. Q3 2022 – 14 cruises 79.9% capacity sold
6. Overall Q1- 3 Jan to September 2022. 84% of capacity sold. 36 cruises. The very worst Spain and French Rivera is 64% sold
• Five cruises – 60-70% sold
• 10 cruises 70-80% sold
• 7 cruises 80-90% sold
• 6 cruises -90-100% sold
• 8 cruises fully booked / sold out

1. A reminder ships operating model is 80% capacity. Adding in November / December we are at 86% with loads of time to book. Each extra 1% adds £1m per ship to the bottom line no extra corporation tax as we are in the tonnage regime

2. Ticket sales are averaging £304 per person per day pre pandemic they were £245 = +24%. Costs will have risen but let’s take half of the increase of £59 to profit. £30 per day extra is £9m per ship (ships metrics extra £1 is 300k on bottom line).

3. I know it’s tough going but I’m not convinced the market realises how heavily skewed travel profitability / costs / cash flow/ and risk is skewed towards ocean cruising.

If we can keep sailing covid free this company will do really well.

808 - the share price here amazes me.
Insurance is seller £120m + High retention rates solid margins and good updates.
Cruise is flying £40m pbid&t is based on £234 per person per day tickets and 80%. Capacity.
The Nov/ Dec cruises are 92% with £300 ticket price. First nine months of next year 80% booked allready and again £300 per ticket. Implies based on company metics a doubling of profit on ships
Cruise cash flow positive £9m in interims (includes prior release of Aug and Sept 22 in line with policy).
No repayments on ships until June 22.
Racking my brains .
Are we dragged down by covid ? Even though the impact is limited ?
Cruise is a risk if we have to stop re covid outbreaks but I see that as really remote.
Some sort of manipulation of price so low ball offer £5 or so to go private looks more attractive.
All guess work but fundamentals and risks of company are completely out of line with SP. Hang on in there as this will come good (from current sp)even if outcome is a low ball take out.

RNS from last two days . Clearly a changing of the guard but two funds seeing value. High risk and reward here but could be a bargain

Chelverton growth aquiring - ? to 5.6%
Atlanta aquiring nil to 5.56%
Blackrock disposing 6.33% to below 5%
Capital Group disposing 9.9% to 4.65%
Franklin Templeman disposing 5.0% to 3.416%

£11.54 looking good

Deacon is probably Dofus Winchmore !!

Thanks Bat good research. Rogue can you help join the dots ? I get the concert party but internet has nothing on Andrew Deacon who is he ? Thanks Banbury

The notification rns says its a purchase.

Jed he owns 26% prior to this.
He is non executive chairman and not paid .
Not sure the before and after relates to institutions but might be wrong.

Rogue thanks for the comforting words. When the Saga gang have our York station booze up will we be celebrating £7 or crying into the beer at £4. Definitely sparked the board to life has RDH

To add the requirement for the takeout to be £4.05 + lapsed 12 months after the purchase so not relevent (take over code). Very interesting

Olmsey
Given RDH is at arms length to the company it wont be options.
Dofus who worked for the company at a senior level was absolutely convinced that RDH would take this private . I really dont know enough about how that might work in practice.
What i know is he has 26% of the company which has just increased (memory says 30% can trigger a bid)
His original investment was £60m at 27p old money and and £40m at 12p.
Some on here mentioned any take out would have to exceed his highest price paid which is 27p at 15 consolidation £4.05.
i think if he pursues this its in the hands of the big shareholders if they accept taking it private we are also rans .
The algo's that Poker mentions could be all about taking this private
My biggest fear is we are taken out below my £5-6 target and many will share that.
Price action today will be interesting and if it gets momentum so up to £3.20 plus for what after all looks a small inauspicious purchase i would be fearfull for LTH with higher averages - fully getting there money back.
All speculation but it has been dull on here for three months

Grippa my view is no chance. That would be insider dealing and so easy to evidence and high profile. They would never risk it the regulatory fines are huge and the reputation damage.
What it does explain I think is the huge fall Friday with millions sold.
The million dollar question is will they continue selling at £11 or is this fair value ? What they decide will determine where we go next.