Member Info for Banburyboy

Sprights as before
Zero chance of a bid for whole company too many disperate parts. No one will want cruise or Tour.
Speculative bid for whole insurance offer or just the underwriting arm is a possibility but Board will reject selling. The whole insurance arm as its worth £6 a share based on PBT / Hastings sale and goodwill carrying value.
If the bid was accepted Lenders will demand ships debt paid off and we would get £2 a share a profitable debt free cruise company and a large unrully and seldom ever profitable dog going by the name Tour.
Just a case of patience with this one whilst looking for a new home for the dog :)

Fuel is not a material cost to the bottom line - so each 10% rise or fall is -/+£0.5m to EBIT&D
Contrast with
Capacity each 1% rise / fall is -/+£1m to EBIT&D
Ticket pre diem each £1 plus or minus is +/-300k to bottom line.
Suspect fall is lees fuel price more peoples confidence in travelling.
As ever it avoid the point that 80% of the company is insurance.
I'm afraid world events mean to the many posters who know me Tour is even more of a dog. Dofus suggested last week it was being readied for a sale. I would love to give it away. I posed the question which he did not answer on value and suggested some value. i'm not convinced.
For me Management need to bite the bullet on Titan / Tour as quick as they can.
Rant over :)

Fair point fundamental. Balance Sheet is poor too much goodwill and removing that net liabilities of £140m. Mainly bank debt. A big if but I'd they could make £30m bid&d they could probably service this. I'm not sure admin is as close as you think as
- hedge funds don't own debt
- continually issue with post offices which involves regulator
- option to screw leaseholders. They will be offered an arrangement as both Co and leaseholders are "jointly"threatened here.
-Morrisons guarantees stock held on for sale basis and support on debt maintaince
- Relatively small size of debt to massive impact on jobs / communities / post offices. I had heard 16'000 staff - contextually the debt is about 8k per job loss which is low . I think if the plug was pulled they would run it by HMG who might provide leverage with banks limited state aid unlikely but not impossible.
Feel terrible for LTH and high risk but at 1.7p this is not dead and could easily two bag on positive news.

Fundamental - you will probably be proved right but you seem inappropriately excited by what is really unfortunate for employees and shareholders.
With respect no one has answered my question. I don't think hedge funds are in control and there is no tangible evidence of that.
The banks will rank as a priority creditor in liquidation above lease holders and trade creditors. Leaseholders are over a barrel on this and would probably agree a holiday and Morrisons should offer preferential terms. That might be enough to improve cash flow and keep banks sweet.
My main point is if a bank has sold a debt to a hedge fund with no communication or rns I will eat my head. Agreed it does not look good yet and whilst the nasty poster is singing the fat lady is still clearing her throat.

A fairly knowledgeable poster on ADvN says the Bank have sold McLS debt to silver point capital.
I can see nothing on the Internet to confirm that.
If true I think its admin. If not I think we have a good chance of fighting another day.
Does anyone else have any information have heard this ? I can't see why they would be taking to the banks if that was right and surely it would need to be in an RNS ?

Thanks Bot yes awfull for LTH and of course the staff. Things that give be hope.
- no major holder sold yet
- largest indepentent operator of post offices makes me think HMG will have an interest not to mention job losses. Not a fan of Brexit but state intervention is easier out of EU.
- Not convinced banks have sold debt on to hedge funds surely that requires RNS. If they have it curtains. I get bonds are sold to hedge funds but not bank debt .
Hope I'm right for all connected ti MCLS

Brought in £2k at 7.10 thinking this was cheap.
Rather recklessly brought another £400 at 1.25p yesterday lowering my average to 4p
Still think the odds are against and will cut losses at 3p but 1.88p to sell 50% profit for those in around the bottom yesterday.

Brought a modest amount at 75p. Logic :
- 61% of £14bn revenue is outside Russia. Don't have figures on profit.
- Lse listed
Think dividend will be axed and we will be suspended.
Uk listing and non russian assets to me ultimately provide a backstop to value at my buy in of 75p.
If we get divy then great but lenders will be pushing hard for it to pay down debt. Good luck all

1.65 to sell just now. That's 30% on 1.25p buy in day trade

22% up on my day trade gamble buying at 1.25.
Still think this has legs having re read RNS re press speculation

Huge trade of 11.7m just gone through anyone any ideas ? Good or bad news ? Have not seen any holdings rns.

I've put £420 in at 1.25p lowering my average to 3.8p
Probably put a sell order for most at 3p and then hide behind the sofa.

If I was not in allready at an average of 7 and probably going to lose 2k - I would see this as a reasonable gamble. I think it could easily hit 3p on some positive news re banks and that's nearly a three bagger.
Still no rns on main holders selling

Norbus the lease liabilities and assets are equal and opposite on the balance sheet. IFRS 16 just brings them on balance sheet for consistency

Norbus. I had the same thoughts but balance sheet has net assets of £17m at May 21. Probably nil at year end. Unfortunately £160m of the assets are goodwill. So real assets are minus £160m. Different perspective on your same issue but less rosy.

13m traded on results annoucment and 9m by 9.30 today. With share stock of 280m feels like many including big investors are sitting tight. Seen sell offs before in liquidation circumstances and this seems lower. I'm holding and hoping for a slightly higher exit than 2.7p to sell

At 31st May the company had net assets of £16m.
£160m of goodwill means circa £150m of liabilities.
Is the whole business worth £150m to an aquirer ? Possibly at £30m EBIT&D provided they can turn it around.
Dilemma for interested parties is do they risk an auction for the good bits or take over the company as a whole ?
An offer of 6 or 7p would probably be accepted valuing the cost of acquisition at £170m.
141k per shop not sure if that's attractive or not.

Not great but not quite as bad as I expected.
Agree with others that letting this go under means Morrisons losses or has to pay more for key locations.
My thoughts are some sort of deal with Morrisons which could be
- no strings banking support- great for us but unlikely
- baking support in exchange for equity share. Dilutive for us
- Partial acquisition of part of the estate. Proceeds will go to debt reduction so wipe out for us.
Not particularly confident at all but we live a few more months
-

Emerald who won the Sweep? Is the final result based on SP at close today ?

Thanks Dofus I.m less upbeat. Saga spent deposits from customers who had not yet been on holiday. That's now changed and new deposits are ringfenced. This has cost the company nearly £100m. I'm not sure this has fully unwound we were still paying out in the interims . Saga would have to bite any residual bullet . If we get anything for Titan I would be releived. £100m which is your 12-15 times earning will massively boost SP.