Member Info for Aus3009

Fleccy - I’ve been raising this as a risk for some time, more I learn, the more I can see the sense of it

I think clarity is required though. In the early stages, this new company will not need to dig fibre to the home nationally, they already cover 54% of premises with their cable infrastructure.

If the game is fast access, this will already deliver over 1gbt download speeds, so it’s really only 46% of the country that needs FTTH. Rest may or may not follow.

Also, these builds are not going to rely on Bt open reach ducting or poles. If you look at project lightening they have been experimenting with a micro trench machine, couple inches wide, couple deep,digs, lays, fills in one go can do couple of miles a day (borrowed from states)

Sky TV with faster BB will I think take over the market including existing virgin customers

Comcast will I think be paying for the network, they are a $100bln making company who have cabled most of America. If anyone thinks they will struggle organising to build out the remaining 46% of the U.K., they must be kidding themselves

This means sky will be able to offer (I think) 1gbt bb to over half the population before openreach are out of bed & nationally before openreach have delivered 10million homes.

If this happens, the only question I have is where does this leave virgin? & how will BT compete?

I think this deal is clear. Sky get away from BT, get faster BB, lose satellite reliance, Liberty get investment for network & Sky becomes a U.K. Comcast cable company .

I’m not saying I’m right, I’m saying bc this is how I read this risk

You can’t block lunatics from public places can you. It’s the incessant repeating of the same thing that suggests it’s an illness. As if everyone else can’t see it for themselves. When the price drops it’s one message, when there’s a whiff of improvement it’s a different message & then, Like a broken clock, it announces its achievement, without realising its an irrelevance nearly all the time & behold-ant to time for the rest

I can never understand why people would or should block someone’s comments on a public board like this. Apart from the obvious dangers of creating a community that only agrees with you, it’s the idea that it is in fact public which carries all the usual caveats.

But I have to say this is a close run thing now

99 times out of a hundred Wi-fi Is affected by other WiFi’s or noise in that band Changing channels on the router manually will normally fix it.

Been too busy today, I’m shocked by the share price drop ? I can only imagine market can’t see how BT can fund everything

& who said Huawei were okay to install in the first place? Surely BT can look to them to contribute to the Rip out?

Well, I’d like to say good luck tomorrow for all that hold these shares & want to see BT do well

Toff - you are welcome to any opinion you fancy, but the truth is, whether you or I like it or not, is that DB have been the closer to the BT share price than any other forecasts I’ve been watching over last 4 years or so.

Okay as I’m said, happy to be proved wrong. Here’s the actual facts on the matter whether OFCOM can force networks to be opened up.

You were right they can & it’s nothing to do with private investment

Non-SMP operators face the prospect of having to open their networks to third

I’ve lifted this from OFCOM website
43
parties under the Civil Infrastructure Directive.
The UK Government is currently considering how to transpose this Directive into UK legislation, with a focus on facilitating the sharing of infrastructure across sectors (i.e., making it easier for Communications Providers (CPs) to utilise the infrastructure of other utility companies such as energy or water networks). However, the Directive can, in theory, also be used to require owners of non-SMP networks to share their infrastructure with third party CPs. Whilst this may not be the intent of the Government, the threat nonetheless remains – and constitutes a material concern to
investors in infrastructure that is not dominant.

AW - I use the word guessing because I’m not overrun with Denning Kruger unlike some people on here

Rather than snide comments why don’t you prove me wrong, right now my proof is in the pudding that’s before your eyes

Does OFCOM force SKY to open up? Or Virgin ?

As I said happy to be proved wrong.

Fleccy - I don’t think you are right about that. OFCOM regulate virgin but not its network. I don’t think OFCOM can do that as a purely privately funded resource. I would cite SKY as evidence of this, SKY has paid for its dominance itself with private money, therefore are not forced to open access but are regulated

The difference I think is BT continues to gain advantage from public money by using existing ducts etc from public money

Happy to be proved wrong, but I cant see a regulator being able to force privately funded networks to open up

NDN - I agree if BT don’t use the ducts etc they inherited from public money. I guessing that would triple the cost though, which further describes the difficult position they are in.

C3P0 - virgin network is paid for with private money, there’s no way they will or can be forced to open up their super fast network to BT or any other provider they don’t want to.

NDN - sorry you miss my point. BT has to some how find full fibre and 5G. Can it be afforded?

Won’t one network eventually compete with the other (retail) ?

Will people pay more?

Will Bt be able to charge more?

Other operators offering 5G at no extra cost

Also fibre is not quite like that is it? There’s lots of electronics inbeteeen

NDN - sky won’t take their customers away from BT lines until there’s a Virgin option. Virgin now have access to 54% of the population & growing

More Reports of a virgin / SKY tie up we should read this as Liberty /Comcast.
This follows the removal of virgin mobile from EE

I see this as a obvious move and very damaging in terms of revenue loss and competition

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/amp/news/911539

AW, Fleccy itsnot ridiculous to ask this question at all. I can see you are both very sure of your opinions but there are some obviously debate-able holes

B T has positioned itself into a place where 5G & FTTH have to be funded, it looks to me that 5G funding never stops, the combined funding for these looks like more than BT can safely fund

In both cases the funding model needs users to pay more, this business case isn’t clear to me

Will people pay more?
Will BT be allowed to charge other operators more?
Competition from companies who don’t fund FTTH are already offering 5G at no extra cost

The evidence for this is “we don’t have full fibre” in part because BT agrees with me.

I keep seeing estimates of £18bln to deliver full fibre. I’m not sure about that level of investment / debt.

Reminds me of tale where land owners planted oak trees to sell to the navy for new boats. Ship manufacture moved on to steel and then aluminium long before the great oaks were great

I still view full fibre as a risky move, but like 5G unless people are going to pay a lot more for it ......

Fleccy - the Huawei argument based on spying is for dummies. This is about a perceived threat of a foreign power being able to apply leverage through its ability to disrupt a host countries well being, in this case using 5G networks to disrupt U.K. infrastructure.

The perceived threat is something else, is it Trump and his un trust worthy team or is it real?

Does an ally threaten sanctions on its friends and neighbours in public ?

This is a mess. In peer made through previous decisions to save money. China is perusing a policy of influence around the world with ports, transport & other infrastructure projects, reaping the benefits of ownership when their loans are defaulted on

The U.K. is already accepting too much of this, America has filled its boots too. 5G is probably a nautical extension of this policy

Velo

Revenue = vanity
Profit = necessity
Cash = reality

Hey Velo, as I said couple of days ago, I’m expecting BT reporting to be better than the majority think.

I come at this from a slightly different position, I see some of the recent business contract losses to start fading away & I think some of BTs next generation products have had enough time to build enough momentum to start showing on their balance sheet, this momentum I expect to carry on building

Along with cost cutting (which might have brief negative impact) where they have to spend £1.50 to save a £1

Lastly pension, I think this is going to be lower than market expects.

I don’t think any of this will trigger a SP recovery, because better results through cost cutting needs to be replaced with new revenue streams. (Which is why I like BT sport).

I also note the better CS reporting from OFCOM there’s been a significant improvement, which helps shape future projects.